April 14 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-2 - Wuxi Bio, Zijin Mining, China Construction Bank

4. After the rebound, Wuxi Bio is approaching a key resistance level; the $50 target remains relatively ambitious at this stage. For now, we will see if it can stabilize above $37 and break through the previous peak area.

Wuxi Bio is currently trading at $37.22, with a high of $37.48 and a low of $35.58 today. The stock continues its recent upward trend and has risen near an important previous resistance area. From the daily chart structure, the price fell from around $44 earlier, then dropped to $30.94 before finding significant support. Since then, the trend has gradually stabilized, and recently it has started to rise back above the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, showing clear short-term improvement in sentiment.

However, although the stock has rebounded significantly from its lows, it cannot yet be said to have fully confirmed a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. This is because the area between $37 and $38 itself is already a significant resistance zone, with the current price very close to this range, indicating that the stock has entered a position where short-term pressure is more likely to emerge. If it fails to effectively break through, the more reasonable judgment at this point would still be a retest of resistance after a low rebound, rather than entering a one-sided uptrend.

If some investors are targeting $50, this goal cannot be ruled out as completely impossible, but given the current technical structure, it remains a relatively aggressive or even optimistic view. To move from the current price level of $37 towards $50, it must first break through the resistance near $38, then reclaim $40, $41.5, and even higher levels such as $44, with resistance stacking up along the way. In other words, $50 looks more like a mid-to-late stage target that could potentially be reached only if the overall uptrend continues to improve, rather than a short-term achievable level.

In the short term, what's worth paying attention to is whether the stock price can first stabilize above 37 yuan and effectively break through the resistance zone between 37.5 yuan and 38 yuan. If it successfully breaks through, the next target could be 39 yuan to 40 yuan, and further up to around 41.5 yuan. Only when these resistances are gradually overcome will the market have more reasons to push expectations higher. Conversely, if the area around 37 yuan to 38 yuan faces renewed resistance, the stock price is more likely to consolidate within a range rather than immediately advance towards 50 yuan.

On the support side below, today's low of 35.58 yuan can be considered the latest short-term support level. If this level is breached again, the next key area to watch is around 34.8 yuan to 35 yuan, followed by 33 yuan and the previous low at 30.94 yuan. As long as the stock price remains above 35.5 yuan, this upward recovery structure won't be disrupted; however, if it falls below again, it indicates that the rebound momentum may still be unstable and will require further consolidation in the short term.

As for investors choosing bearish warrants with a stop-loss at 45 yuan, and believing that the stop-loss levels available in the market are too far and prices too expensive, this observation is indeed reasonable. If the stop-loss levels for most bearish products in the market are generally set far away, it means that although they are less sensitive to immediate price fluctuations, their leverage might not be particularly high, and prices could be relatively expensive, which naturally reduces their appeal to short-term investors looking for quick pullbacks. A bear warrant with a stop-loss at 45 yuan is still some distance from the current price, indicating its strategy isn't targeting extremely short-term moves but rather betting on the inability of the stock to significantly exceed 45 yuan after facing pressure at the 37-38 yuan resistance zone over time.

However, it’s important to note that the current daily chart trend is still gradually recovering from the low of 30.94 yuan. The short-term rhythm is strong, and if the stock price successfully breaks through 38 yuan and continues to recover higher resistance levels, the pressure on bearish warrant positions will increase progressively. Therefore, taking a bearish view at this stage is not entirely infeasible, but it seems more based on anticipating pullbacks at the resistance zone rather than being rooted in a clear weakening structure for outright shorting.

Overall, the most critical issue for Wuxi Bio right now isn’t about determining whether it can immediately reach 50 yuan, but rather confirming whether the resistance zone between 37 yuan and 38 yuan can be broken. If it breaks through, the stock has the potential to advance step-by-step towards 40 yuan or higher; if it fails, there’s a greater likelihood it will return to a consolidation pattern first. As for bearish warrant deployment, while technically logical, it relies on the premise that the stock indeed encounters resistance and retreats near the current level. Otherwise, if the structure is still in a recovery phase, prematurely taking heavy bearish positions entails significant risk.

Zijin Mining’s performance has noticeably improved after stabilizing near 37 yuan, but at this stage, it still represents a rebound recovery. Whether this marks a genuine turning point depends on whether it can further break through the resistance zone between 38 yuan and 39 yuan.

Zijin Mining is currently trading at 37.70 yuan, with today’s high at 38.30 yuan and low at 37.24 yuan. After rebounding from the recent low of 31.66 yuan, the stock’s performance has stabilized considerably. On the daily chart, the stock previously fell from a high of 46.98 yuan but found support around 31 yuan to 32 yuan before gradually rising again. Recently, it has also reclaimed positions near the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, reflecting an improvement in short-term sentiment compared to earlier.

However, if asked whether the stock has completely reversed its trend, the answer remains somewhat reserved. Although the area near 37 yuan has been gradually stabilized and there are signs of recovery from lows and reclaiming short-term moving averages, the stock is currently approaching a fairly crucial resistance zone. Today’s high at 38.30 yuan already indicates significant resistance forming near 38 yuan to 39 yuan. Therefore, the most reasonable characterization at this stage is still one of rebound recovery rather than confirmation of a full return to a mid-term uptrend.

If investors are asking whether now is still a good time to enter, technically it’s not entirely out of consideration, but it’s no longer an ideal low-price entry point. The stock has already rebounded significantly from 31.66 yuan, so buying now isn’t about betting on a recovery from a low position but rather hoping for the continuation of the rebound. This type of position requires careful timing: if the stock can hold steady above 37 yuan and break through 38.30 yuan, advancing toward 39 yuan, then the rationale for entering would be stronger. However, if it encounters resistance again at current levels, there’s a chance it could consolidate first around 36 yuan to 35.7 yuan in the short term.

Some optimistic investors believe that as long as the stock holds above 37 yuan, it will reverse into a V-shaped recovery. While this view has some basis, it hasn’t yet reached the point where it can be fully confirmed. The 37-yuan level is indeed an important watershed at this stage, as the stock has been consolidating above this level in recent days, suggesting the market is beginning to accept this price range. However, a true V-shaped reversal isn’t just about holding above 37 yuan—it’s more important whether it can consecutively reclaim higher resistances, particularly at 38.30 yuan, 39 yuan, and even closer to 40 yuan. If the stock merely oscillates between 37 yuan and 38 yuan, it’s more indicative of consolidation after a rebound rather than completing a full trend reversal.

On the downside, 37 yuan can now be considered the first short-term support. If it breaks below this, the next level to watch is near 36 yuan to 35.70 yuan, which is close to multiple short-term moving averages and will be an important area to observe for pullbacks. As long as the stock price holds above these levels, the rebound structure can be maintained; but if it falls below again, it indicates that this recovery is still not stable enough and will require more time to consolidate in the short term.

On the upside, if the price can effectively break through 38.30 yuan, the next target would be between 39 yuan to 39.70 yuan, and further on, around 41 yuan. In other words, what’s most worth observing in the short term isn’t simply whether one should buy now, but whether the stock price can upgrade 37 yuan from initial support to a stable platform, and then break through the upper resistance. If this step is achieved, the likelihood of a trend reversal will naturally increase.

Overall, Zijin Mining's current trend has shifted from weak to stable, and the 37-yuan mark is beginning to take on watershed significance, though it’s still in the stage of rebound and recovery. Entering now isn’t impossible, but one must understand that the current price is no longer a low absorption point, but rather a continuation of a game closer to the resistance zone. If the price stabilizes above 37 yuan and breaks through 38.30 yuan, the rebound may continue; if it meets resistance again, consolidation at higher levels is more likely before waiting for the next direction.

The Construction Bank's uptrend continues and is approaching the previous peak, with 8.55 yuan being a key short-term test level. At this stage, it is in a strong upward trend but is nearing the resistance zone.

Construction Bank is currently trading at 8.48 yuan, with today’s high at 8.51 yuan and the low at 8.37 yuan. The recent uptrend has been quite evident, with the stock reclaiming several short- to medium-term moving averages. From the daily chart structure, the share price has gradually risen from the earlier low of around 7.56 yuan, showing a pattern of successive highs, characteristic of a strong uptrend. Market capital continues to flow in, and short-term momentum remains robust.

However, although the trend is strong, the current level is also approaching the previous high. It can be seen on the chart that the area around 8.55 yuan represents a noticeable recent peak and also serves as short-term resistance. Therefore, it is reasonable for investors to expect a test of 8.55 yuan tomorrow, as the current price is not far from that level and momentum supports another upward test. However, it’s important to note that “testing” and “breaking through and stabilizing” are two different concepts. The real key lies in whether the price can effectively break through and stabilize above 8.55 yuan.

If the price subsequently breaks through 8.55 yuan, there is potential for further advancement towards 8.70 yuan or even higher, extending the uptrend. But if it encounters resistance again near 8.55 yuan, it is more likely to consolidate at higher levels or even retest lower support. Therefore, although the current situation is strong, it is still in the phase of nearing resistance rather than just starting out.

On the downside, 8.37 yuan, today’s low, can be regarded as the first short-term support. Further down, attention can be paid to the area near 8.20 yuan to 8.27 yuan, which is also close to multiple short-term moving averages. As long as the stock price stays above 8.37 yuan, the short-term uptrend structure remains intact; if it breaks below, caution is needed as the uptrend may slow down and enter a consolidation phase.

As for investors concerned about bull certificates with a stop-loss price of 6.88 yuan, from a risk perspective, such products are still relatively distant from the current price, representing a more conservative, larger buffer deployment. These bull certificates are not meant to capture extremely short-term bursts but to follow the overall uptrend, continuing to ride the trend until it shows clear signs of weakening. Due to the distant stop-loss price, even if a short-term pullback occurs, the chance of hitting the stop-loss price is relatively low, making them more suitable for investors who are optimistic about the mid- to short-term trend continuing upwards.

Overall, Construction Bank’s current trend is indeed strong, and testing 8.55 yuan in the short term is a reasonable expectation. However, more importantly, it needs to be observed whether it can break through and stabilize above this level. If it successfully breaks through, the uptrend could extend further; if it encounters resistance, consolidation at higher levels is more likely. Regarding bull certificates, a stop-loss price of 6.88 yuan represents a more robust deployment, suitable for following the trend. However, it’s necessary to keep in mind that once the stock price reaches the resistance zone and fluctuates repeatedly, short-term volatility may still increase.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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