April 14 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Pop Mart, Tianqi Lithium

1. The Hang Seng Index continues to fluctuate within a range in the short term; 26,000 to 26,200 remains the main resistance above, with initial support near 25,800.

The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,872 points, with today's high at 25,995 points and low at 25,668 points. The short-term trend still reflects a consolidation pattern after a rebound. Since rebounding from the previous low of 24,203 points, the index has gradually recovered positions near the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, indicating a notable improvement in short-term sentiment compared to before. However, it has not yet truly broken through the key resistance zone of 26,000 to 26,200 points. Therefore, at this stage, it is more appropriate to view it as moving sideways after a rebound rather than having confirmed a renewed strong uptrend.

From a technical perspective, the area around 25,800 points can indeed be considered an initial short-term support level, but the support is not very solid because the index dropped to 25,668 points intraday, reflecting that it will continue to fluctuate in this range. If it can hold above 25,800 points subsequently, there will still be conditions for maintaining movement within the range and repeatedly challenging levels above 26,000 points. However, if it breaks down below that, one should be cautious about the lower end of the range moving further downward, potentially retesting support near 25,600 points.

On the upside, the 26,000-point level itself is a clear psychological threshold, while the range between 26,100 and 26,200 points is also close to the mid-term moving average and a denser resistance zone. Therefore, investors consider 26,000 points as resistance, and even view 26,200 points as major pressure – a judgment that has technical grounding. In other words, viewing the Hang Seng Index as trading within an approximate 200-point range in the short term is reasonable, provided that support below is not decisively broken.

From a deployment perspective, choosing bull certificates with a recovery price of 25,294 points still retains a certain buffer compared to current levels, making it more suitable for those expecting the index to stabilize within a range and attempt another upward move after holding key support. This type of strategy doesn’t anticipate a one-sided surge but assumes that as long as the Hang Seng Index holds its support, there is potential to test 26,000 points again. Therefore, risk control is relatively important; the focus is not blindly chasing gains, but monitoring whether the support zone has been breached.

On the bearish side, some believe the pressure at 26,200 points is significant and continue deploying bear certificates with a recovery price of 26,300 points, which is quite a close-range strategy. The premise of this deployment is that the index must be clearly restricted above 26,000 points and then reverse downward. Otherwise, if the market strengthens slightly or suddenly surges toward 26,200 points, bear certificates will face high risks. Thus, while this bearish deployment has clear direction, the room for error is relatively limited, making it more suitable for situations where resistance is visibly under pressure, rather than prematurely taking heavy positions when the index is still near the middle of the range.

Overall, what deserves the most attention for the Hang Seng Index now is not simply being bullish or bearish, but whether 25,800 points can hold steady and whether 26,000 to 26,200 points can be broken through. As long as support remains intact without breaking through resistance, the market will likely continue consolidating within this range. If it later breaks above 26,200 points, the rebound may have a chance to expand further; conversely, if it loses 25,800 points, this round of recovery might end, and the short-term structure could weaken again.

Pop Mart’s rebound has initially stabilized, but 165 yuan remains a key short-term resistance. At this stage, the stock is closer to testing resistance after rising from lower levels, though it cannot yet be considered fully strengthened.

Pop Mart is currently trading at 161.40 yuan, with today's high at 164.60 yuan and low at 154.50 yuan. The single-day rebound momentum is notable, indicating that the stabilization trend following the low at 140 yuan continues. From a daily chart perspective, the share price fell sharply from previous highs and found visible support only after dropping to 140.10 yuan. Recently, it has gradually rebounded from the lower range and re-established itself near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, improving short-term sentiment compared to before.

However, it’s too early to consider the stock fully strengthened at this stage. Although the price has rebounded from around 140 yuan, it remains constrained by noticeable medium- to short-term resistance, especially between 164.60 yuan and 165 yuan, which represents the immediate pressure level. If the price approaches 165 yuan but fails to stabilize effectively, the overall movement should still be viewed as a corrective rebound post-sharp decline, rather than a return to a stronger uptrend.

If investors are asking whether the share price can reach 165 yuan, the answer is that it has the potential to test this level in the short term, but 165 yuan should not merely be seen as a simple target price—it needs to be assessed whether the price can truly break through and stabilize above it. Today’s high reached 164.60 yuan, showing that the market has begun testing resistance in this area, though it hasn’t fully broken through yet. If the price can stabilize above 165 yuan going forward, the next step could see a push towards the 170–175 yuan region. However, if it encounters resistance again near 165 yuan, the more likely scenario would involve consolidation after the rebound, or even retesting support near 158–155 yuan.

In terms of downside support, 154.50 yuan represents today’s low and can be regarded as the first short-term support level. Further down, attention should be paid to the 150 yuan and 140.10 yuan previous low zones. As long as the share price stays above 154.50 yuan, the short-term rebound pattern can be maintained; however, if it falls back below 154.50 yuan, this indicates insufficient strength in the rebound, casting doubt on the market’s ability to break through 165 yuan resistance.

In the warrant market, some investors hold call warrants with an exercise price of 210 yuan, a relatively aggressive position that depends heavily on further upside expansion. Given the current price of 161.40 yuan, the distance to the 210 yuan exercise price remains considerable. If the share price merely rebounds to around 165 yuan before encountering resistance again, performance of these deeply out-of-the-money call warrants typically won’t be ideal. In other words, simply expecting the share price to test 165 yuan from current levels isn’t enough to drive strong performance in higher-exercise-price call warrants unless the price not only surpasses 165 yuan but also opens up greater upward potential.

Overall, what deserves the most attention for Pop Mart at this stage is not whether the share price has rebounded, but whether 165 yuan can transition from resistance to support. While the short-term trend has improved compared to earlier, it remains in the phase of retesting resistance after bouncing off lows. Only by stabilizing above 165 yuan does the rebound have a chance to extend further; otherwise, the movement should be interpreted as part of a corrective rebound or range-bound consolidation.

3. After the reversal, Tianqi Lithium has continued to strengthen, with the short-term price approaching the previous high resistance. The next target is 58.4 yuan first; a further breakout would present an opportunity to challenge the 60 to 60.3 yuan range.

Tianqi Lithium is currently trading at 56.70 yuan, with today's high at 57.25 yuan and low at 53.80 yuan. The stock price rose again today and closed near the higher end of the daily range, reflecting that short-term buying remains active. From a trend perspective, the stock rebounded from the earlier low of 39.10 yuan, gradually reclaiming the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, and even the 120-day moving average levels. At this point, the overall structure has clearly shifted from a weak pullback to a more sustained uptrend.

If we look at whether it has truly reversed its trend, at this stage, it is not merely a technical rebound. The reason is that the stock price has not only broken through multiple moving averages but also demonstrated continuity in its upward movement, showing a pattern of successive higher highs recently, indicating that funds are gradually flowing in, and the technical picture has significantly improved. However, although the trend remains strong, the current level is already approaching the previous high and key resistance levels. Therefore, in the short term, the stock may not rise linearly but could consolidate at higher levels before deciding if it can break through further.

If investors are asking about the next target price, the first short-term target could be around 58.40 yuan, as this is a significant resistance level on the chart, close to the earlier highs. If the price can effectively break through and stabilize above 58.40 yuan, the next potential move would be towards the 60 to 60.30 yuan range. This area represents both a round-number level and is close to important previous highs, making it the next meaningful target zone.

On the downside, 53.80 yuan is today’s intraday low and can be considered the latest short-term support level. Below that, the 51.50 to 52 yuan area could be another support zone, which aligns with recent moving averages and the retest area after the recent breakout. As long as the share price holds above 53.80 yuan, the overall bullish structure remains intact. Even if normal consolidation occurs during the ongoing uptrend, as long as these support zones are not breached, it should still be viewed as healthy profit-taking rather than a renewed weakening.

Some investors have shown interest in call warrants with a strike price of 66 yuan, which represent an aggressive choice for those optimistic about further upward momentum in the stock. At the current price of 56.70 yuan, there is still some distance to the 66-yuan strike price, so the performance of such call warrants will heavily depend on whether the stock can not only reach near 58 yuan but also push higher towards 60 yuan or beyond. If the stock only approaches the previous high and then moves sideways, these out-of-the-money call warrants may not perform optimally. Thus, this strategy is better suited for investors who believe there is still significant upside potential ahead.

Overall, Tianqi Lithium’s current trend has indeed strengthened significantly, and it is no longer appropriate to view it simply as a weak rebound. The next key issue is not whether the uptrend can be maintained but whether it can break through 58.40 yuan and extend its rise towards the 60 to 60.30 yuan range. A successful breakout would further improve the overall structure, while failure to do so might result in consolidation at higher levels, digesting gains before determining the next directional move.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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