April 9 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - Pop Mart, Weichai Power, Sands China
1. After Pop Mart held above 150 HKD and rebounded to above 152 HKD, does this count as a steady rebound or a weak pullback after a sharp decline?
The most noteworthy aspect of Pop Mart at this time is not how large the single-day gain or loss is, but whether the stock price has entered a truly stable recovery phase after a sharp drop. The latest daily chart shows that the stock closed at 152.70 HKD, with an intraday high of 157.10 HKD, a low of 150.20 HKD, opening at 150.70 HKD, and a turnover of approximately 3.773 billion HKD. Looking at the overall trend, the stock had previously reached a high of 274.20 HKD, then fell continuously, recently dropping as low as 140.10 HKD, before starting to fluctuate around 150 HKD. This indicates that the key issue for Pop Mart now is not whether it has stopped falling, but whether this halt in the decline can evolve into a more complete rebound structure.
Technically, the current situation is closer to an initial rebound after stabilizing from a low, rather than a confirmed steady rebound phase. The 5-day moving average is around 147.20 HKD, the 10-day moving average around 157.05 HKD, the 20-day moving average around 183.10 HKD, the 30-day moving average around 194.93 HKD, the 60-day moving average around 208.61 HKD, the 120-day moving average around 212.88 HKD, and the 250-day moving average around 228.52 HKD. The current price has moved back above the 5-day moving average but remains significantly below the 10-day, 20-day, and longer-term moving averages, indicating only short-term support without a reversal in the trend. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is around 183.10 HKD, the upper band around 243.74 HKD, and the lower band around 122.45 HKD. The current price is below the middle band but far from the lower band, meaning the most panic-driven phase may have passed, though there is still a way to go before true strength returns. The RSI is around 32 to 36, a weak recovery from a low level, which typically indicates the stock has conditions for a technical rebound but is insufficient proof that the uptrend is stable.
In terms of price levels, the first support is seen at 150.20 HKD, followed by 147 HKD to 145 HKD. If these levels are breached, the focus will shift back to around 140.10 HKD. As for resistance, the short-term level is at 157.10 HKD, followed by 166.77 HKD, and then 178.67 HKD. In other words, Pop Mart's current situation is quite clear: holding above 150 HKD only indicates short-term support; staying above 157 HKD would signal improvement, while failing to reclaim the 166 HKD to 178 HKD range means it cannot yet be considered a steady rebound.
Therefore, if investors ask whether the stock has now entered a steady rebound phase, the answer should lean towards caution. A true steady rebound usually requires seeing the stock gradually reclaim the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with higher prices not immediately retreating. Although Pop Mart has rebounded from the low of 140.10 HKD, the 10-day moving average is still around 157 HKD, and the 20-day moving average is near 183 HKD, both still distant from the current price. Thus, the current phase appears more like a weak stabilization and technical recovery after a sharp decline, rather than a reliable upward trend.
Another market perspective takes a more aggressive stance, suggesting that the best way to bottom-fish during a sharp sell-off with high implied volatility isn't to buy stocks directly but to sell put options (short put). This approach has its logic because when stock prices plummet and volatility rises, option premiums become more expensive. If an investor is already willing to accumulate shares at a lower price, selling puts might give them more control than buying outright. The issue lies in the fact that this strategy is not purely bullish; it's a conditional deployment aimed at accumulating shares. What it fears most isn't that the stock won't rise but that the stock might experience another sharp drop afterward.
If we apply this short put thinking to the current chart, the underlying premise becomes clear: the market doesn't fully believe that this rebound is stable. If one truly believed that the uptrend would be smooth, the most straightforward action would be to buy spot rather than wait for lower levels by selling puts. Thus, this kind of view may appear to be "bottom-fishing" on the surface but is actually still quite cautious. It even reflects lingering skepticism about the future, anticipating the possibility of another test downward.
From a chart perspective, this caution is not without reason. Pop Mart, so far, has only rebounded from around 140 yuan to approximately 152 yuan, without reclaiming any significant medium- or short-term resistance levels. As long as it can't surpass 157 yuan—or worse, if it loses 150 yuan again—the market could easily revert to the judgment that this is just a "rebound before another fall." Therefore, interpreting this situation through the lens of a short put strategy suggests a preference to avoid chasing highs and instead wait for lower entry points rather than confirming that the stock price has bottomed.
Comparing these two perspectives reveals a clear market divergence. Those asking whether this is a "steady rebound" focus on whether the stock can gradually recover after dropping to a low point. On the other hand, those favoring the short put strategy, while not extremely bearish, fundamentally don’t believe this is a secure right-side buying opportunity. The former is watching to see if the stock can steadily strengthen, while the latter is preparing for another potential drop by positioning themselves comfortably.
Therefore, the most reasonable assessment of Pop Mart at this point shouldn't be overly optimistic, nor should it assume that a sharp decline is imminent. A more accurate description would be: the stock has transitioned from a sharp fall into a phase of stabilizing at lower levels, but it still lacks a decisive breakout above 157 yuan to confirm a steady rebound. Until that breakout occurs, all judgments claiming "it's stabilized" are premature, and any assertions that it will "definitely crash again" lack sufficient price confirmation.
In summary, the most fitting characterization of Pop Mart at this stage is that it's a high-volatility consumer stock that has entered a technical recovery phase post-sharp decline but hasn't yet reclaimed key resistance levels. For investors considering entering, this is not entirely out of the question, but they should understand that what they're buying is the "possibility of a recovery from lower levels," not a confirmation that a "steady rebound" is underway. For conservative or still cautious investors, waiting for a confirmed breakout above 157 yuan or reassessing after a breakdown below 150 yuan would be wiser than relying solely on intuition. What deserves the most respect now isn't subjective optimism or pessimism—it’s the price itself: holding above 150 yuan merely indicates support, but staying firmly above 157 yuan would signal the start of a stable rebound. $SG#POMRTRC2612D.C (68300.HK)$$DSPOMRT@EC2712A.C (27649.HK)$$UB#POMRTRC2612C.C (68676.HK)$
Weichai Power is approaching its historical high of 35.54 yuan. Whether it will break through this level depends less on speculative imagination and more on whether it can accelerate further above 31.5 yuan.
The most appealing aspect of Weichai Power right now isn't whether it has turned stronger but that it has reached a very sensitive position: just one step away from its historical high. However, this last step is often the hardest. The latest closing price was 31.54 yuan, up 1.60 yuan, or 5.34%, with an intraday high of 31.60 yuan and low of 29.34 yuan, and turnover of approximately 1.039 billion yuan. From the daily chart perspective, the stock had previously reached 35.54 yuan before pulling back for consolidation, and recently it has pushed higher again, clearly returning to a medium- to short-term bullish zone. Naturally, the market is starting to ask: since it’s reapproaching the high, does it have a real chance to break through this time?
Technically, Weichai Power is currently in a phase of renewed acceleration after a strong upward trend. The 5-day moving average is around 29.41 yuan, the 10-day at approximately 28.48 yuan, the 20-day at roughly 28.40 yuan, the 30-day at about 29.60 yuan, the 60-day at approximately 27.89 yuan, the 120-day at around 23.08 yuan, and the 250-day at approximately 18.98 yuan. The current price is above all major moving averages, indicating that the overall trend remains intact. The Bollinger Bands' middle line is around 28.40 yuan, the upper band at approximately 31.42 yuan, and the lower band at roughly 25.38 yuan. The current price is trading above the upper band, showing strong short-term momentum but also indicating that the stock is entering a potentially volatile overheated zone. The RSI is hovering between 58 and 74, reflecting a neutral-to-strong to slightly overheated condition, meaning the uptrend isn't over yet, but if it surges too quickly, profit-taking pressures will likely increase.
Looking at key price levels, the nearest important support zone is between 31 yuan and 30.8 yuan, followed by 30 yuan, and then 29.3 yuan, which is near today's low. As long as these levels hold, the overall uptrend structure remains valid. On the resistance side, the immediate barrier is 32.38 yuan, followed by the previous high range of 33.93 yuan to 35.54 yuan. In other words, Weichai Power isn't completely without conditions to break through its historical high—it has reached the final testing zone before that milestone. If it can stabilize above 32.38 yuan, the market will naturally begin to take the challenge of 35.54 yuan more seriously.
So, if investors ask whether it will break the historical high, the answer isn't simply yes or no, but rather: there are conditions, but it's not confirmed yet. The reason is clear: the current trend is indeed strong, and the moving averages align well; the stock price has returned to the high zone with a rhythm much cleaner than many weak stocks. However, on the other hand, historical highs have never been guaranteed to break just by getting close. Because the closer it gets to the old peak, the more likely two forces emerge: first, profit-taking from those who bought at lower levels starts to lock in gains; second, holders stuck near the previous peak want to exit as soon as they see the approach.
From the perspective of the chart structure, Weichai's biggest advantage now is that this time it didn’t surge to a high in a single day but slowly climbed up after a period of mid-term consolidation. This kind of movement is usually healthier than 'quick bounce and quick retreat' because it shows that funds aren't just surging for one day but are gradually accepting higher prices. In particular, the 60-day moving average is still at 27.89 yuan, some distance away from the current price, indicating that the mid-term structure hasn’t reached an overextended point where a sudden collapse could occur.
But at the same time, we can't ignore the issue of short-term overheating. The current price has clearly pulled away from the Bollinger Bands middle line and moved above the upper band, with the RSI also in the higher region. This means that if it continues to rise, a high-level shakeout may occur along the way. In other words, what’s most likely to happen for Weichai now isn’t necessarily 'breaking through the top directly' or 'immediately peaking,' but instead, there might be a tug-of-war between 31 yuan and 33 yuan to digest short-term profits before deciding whether there’s enough strength to make a real challenge toward 35.54 yuan.
If we interpret it in simpler terms, we can understand it like this:
First, the stock price now has the basic conditions to re-test the historical high.
Because the trend is upward, the moving averages are bullish, and short-term funds are still present.
Second, there is no technical confirmation yet that the peak will definitely be broken.
Because there are still two levels ahead, 32.38 yuan and 33.93 yuan, and the major resistance has not yet begun to be gradually overcome.
Third, the area around 31 yuan cannot lose too much ground.
If the stock price fails to break upward and falls back below 30 yuan or even 29.3 yuan, the market will start to suspect that this round might just be a false breakout precursor at the highs.
Fourth, if the price can stabilize above 32 yuan, it will gradually push towards 34 yuan, and the chance of breaking through 35.54 yuan will significantly increase.
In summary, Weichai Power is currently best described as a strong stock that has entered the historical high challenge zone but has yet to complete its final breakout confirmation. It’s not that it lacks the potential to break through the peak; rather, it can be said that it has now reached the position most qualified to discuss breaking through the peak. However, it will never be smooth sailing before reaching the historical high. What truly matters is not how excited the market is right now, but whether the stock price can remain strong above 31 yuan and gradually reclaim 32.38 yuan and 33.93 yuan. If it holds steady and succeeds, the historical high will no longer be just a fantasy; if it fails, this period will more likely resemble a prelude to the peak rather than an official breakout start.
3. Sands China managed to hold above 17 yuan, but relying solely on the Labor Day concept might not be enough to push it to 20 yuan within a month. The real key lies in whether it can first stabilize at 17.5 yuan.
The biggest hesitation for Sands China in the market right now is not whether the stock price has stopped falling, but whether this stabilization is merely a short-term rebound or the beginning of paving the way for a larger counterattack. The latest closing price was 17.22 yuan, down 0.31 yuan on the day, representing a 1.77% decline. The intraday high was 17.54 yuan, the low was 17.13 yuan, opening at 17.53 yuan, with a trading volume of approximately 136 million yuan. Looking at the daily chart, the price had previously reached a high of 19.24 yuan, followed by repeated declines, recently hitting a low of 16.05 yuan, before gradually recovering. The market's primary concern right now is very focused: Is it possible for the stock to reach 20 yuan this month? Is the Labor Day holiday concept strong enough to push the price further up?
Let's first analyze the technical structure. Sands China is currently in the initial recovery phase after stabilizing from a low point, but it hasn't fully strengthened yet. The 5-day moving average is around 17.09 yuan, the 10-day moving average is about 16.95 yuan, and the 20-day moving average is roughly 16.90 yuan. The current price still stands above these short-term moving averages, indicating improved short-term support. However, the 30-day moving average at approximately 17.12 yuan is still quite close to the current price, showing that the stock has just stabilized in the mid-to-short-term average cost area and hasn’t clearly broken away from the tug-of-war yet. Looking at the 60-day moving average at about 17.77 yuan, the 120-day moving average at 18.98 yuan, and the 250-day moving average at 18.15 yuan—all are still above the current price—indicating that medium-term pressure has not been fully digested. The middle axis of the Bollinger Band is around 16.90 yuan, the upper band is near 17.63 yuan, and the lower band is around 16.16 yuan. The current price is already close to the upper band, reflecting that this rebound has approached the first level of resistance. The RSI is hovering between 47 and 56, which is neutral and stable—not particularly strong, but better than when it was weak.
If we break down the price levels, the immediate short-term support is at 17.13 yuan, followed by 16.74 yuan to 16.60 yuan, and then the recent low of 16.05 yuan. In terms of resistance, the immediate level to watch is 17.54 yuan, followed by 17.77 yuan, and then the range of 18.34 yuan to 18.74 yuan. This means the current trend for Sands China is clear: there is some support above 17 yuan, but pressure begins to build above 17.5 yuan. If it cannot effectively break through 17.77 yuan, pushing directly to 20 yuan would actually be quite difficult.
So, if investors ask whether the stock can reach 20 yuan this month, the answer isn't a definitive 'no,' but judging purely from this daily chart, a more reasonable assessment would be that 20 yuan represents an aggressive target, not the most natural next destination. Moving from the current price of 17.22 yuan to 20 yuan requires an additional rise of over 10%, and the stock must progressively overcome several resistance levels at 17.54, 17.77, 18.34, 18.74, and 18.98 yuan. In other words, while 20 yuan isn’t impossible to consider, the prerequisite is that this recovery needs to transition from a 'low-level repair' into a 'mid-term strengthening.' The chart doesn’t indicate that this transition has occurred yet.
Another group of investors, optimistic about the Labor Day holiday benefiting gaming and tourism-related sectors, hold call warrants with a strike price of 21.28 yuan. This logic appears intuitive because holidays often boost foot traffic and consumption expectations, naturally creating optimism for Macau-related stocks. The issue, however, is whether the holiday concept can drive stock prices—it’s never just about the story but whether the story can lead to a price breakthrough. For Sands China right now, even if the Labor Day concept generates positive sentiment, the stock price must first break through 17.54 yuan and then stabilize above 17.77 yuan before the market will believe in its higher upside potential.
More importantly, call warrants differ from the underlying stock. There’s still a noticeable gap between the current price and the strike price of 21.28 yuan, meaning such positions aren't simply bullish bets—they're highly aggressive gambles on a rapid acceleration in the short term. If the stock slowly grinds within the range of 17 to 18 yuan, even if the direction isn't wrong, the call warrants may still struggle. In other words, the core risk of holding these call warrants isn't just being wrong on direction but also the stock price failing to convert expectations into actual gains quickly enough.
Comparing these two perspectives reveals the same underlying issue. On one side, betting on 20 yuan assumes this rebound will continue and progressively reclaim mid-term resistance levels. On the other side, those optimistic about the Labor Day concept and holding call warrants are betting on the pace accelerating fast enough to leverage the advantages of options tools. Neither view is entirely without merit, but the chart currently leans toward a more conservative interpretation: the stock has only just stabilized from a low, and it’s premature to assume a mid-term upward trend has resumed.
To put it more directly, Sands China right now is like a gaming stock transitioning from weakness to stability but still hasn't fully shaken off medium-term pressure. The positive aspect is that the low at HKD 16.05 has been temporarily defended, and the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are starting to move back below the share price, showing short-term support. The issue is that multiple longer-term moving averages are still weighing above, and the current price is already close to the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that much of the initial rebound potential has been used up.
In summary, if you ask whether it can reach HKD 20 this month, the answer should be: not entirely impossible, but it's still too early to tell. A more realistic observation order would be to first see if it can break through HKD 17.54, then stabilize above HKD 17.77, and gradually recover in the range of HKD 18.34 to HKD 18.74. As long as these levels are passed smoothly, HKD 20 will start to shift from being a vision to a reasonable projection. Regarding holding call warrants with an exercise price of HKD 21.28, logically, it’s an aggressive deployment, understandable, but what it bets on isn’t just simple holiday gains—it needs those gains to immediately turn into an accelerated upward trend. At its current position, what truly deserves respect is still the price itself: holding above HKD 17 only means it hasn't worsened; stabilizing above HKD 17.5 indicates that this recovery might have the potential to go further.
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
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