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港股窩輪Jenny
commented on a stock · Apr 9 10:42

Pop Mart (09992.HK) Short-term Analysis: Earnings Guidance Sparks Disagreement, Testing Resistance After Oversold Rebound

Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced extreme volatility recently, with a significant pullback after the earnings release, followed by a notable rebound. As of April 8, 2026, Pop Mart closed at HKD 152.6, rising 7.62% in a single day, peaking intraday at HKD 155.1. The trading volume reached HKD 6.175 billion, with net inflows of HKD 625 million from major funds. The stock plummeted 34.7% after the earnings announcement on March 25, wiping out nearly HKD 100 billion in market value. Recently, it found support near HKD 140 and began to recover.Today (April 9), the stock price hit a high of HKD 156.5, with an increase of 2.29%.
Performance of Stocks in the Same Sector
The trend of the toy and consumer sectors has recently diverged. Miniso Group (09896.HK) closed at HK$32.6 on April 9, but southbound funds have been consistently reducing holdings over the past five trading days, with a cumulative net reduction of 3.3871 million shares. The technical trend appears weak. The overall toy industry shows a divergence pattern. Hong Kong-listed new consumption stocks weakened under the drag of a major toy company's plunge, but valuations in the consumer sector are now extremely low. Short-term negative factors for some leading companies, combined with a weak broader Hang Seng market, suggest that there may be opportunities to consider buying on dips going forward.
Technical Analysis
From the chart movement, Pop Mart’s share price fell sharply from its high of HK$217.2 on March 25 to around HK$141.8, accumulating a drop of about 34.7% over eight trading days, followed by a strong rebound on April 8. According to technical data as of April 8, Pop Mart’s first support level is approximately HK$139.1, which represents the low point during the late-March adjustment. A more critical second support level lies at HK$100.3, equivalent to the long-term support zone since the beginning of the year. On the resistance side, the first resistance is at HK$178.6, and if it can break through, the next target would be HK$205, near February’s high.
In terms of technical indicators, the summary signal is a 'strong buy,' with 13 total buy signals. The RSI stands at 30, close to the oversold region. Multiple oscillation indicators show buy signals; both the Williams %R and stochastic oscillators have issued buy signals, while the rate-of-change indicator suggests 'sellers entering contraction period, buy.' Meanwhile, trend-following indicators such as the bull-bear power index and Ichimoku Cloud indicate buy, but MACD and Bollinger Bands suggest sell, confirming that the medium-term downtrend has not yet fully reversed. Overall, the current technical signals present an 'oversold bottoming rebound' pattern, with short-term expectations to trade within the range of HK$139.1 to HK$178.6, supported by RSI oversold conditions providing potential for a technical rebound.
Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced extreme volatility recently, with a significant pullback after the earnings release, followed by a notable rebound. As of April 8, 2026, Pop Mart closed at HKD 152.6, rising 7.62% in a single day, peaking intraday at HKD 155.1. The trading volume reached HKD 6.175 billion, with net inflows of HKD 625 million from major funds. The stock plummeted 34.7% after the earnings announcement on March 25, wiping out nearly HKD 100 billion in market value. Recently, it found support near HKD 140 and began to recover.Today (April 9), the stock price hit a high of HKD 156.5, with an increase of 2.29%. Performance of Stocks in the Same Sector The trend in the trendy toy and consumer goods sector has been diverging recently. Miniso (09896.HK) closed at HKD 32.6 on April 9, but southbound funds have continued to reduce holdings over the past five trading days, accumulating a net reduction of 3.3871 million shares. The technical trend is weak. The trendy toy industry overall shows a divided pattern. Hong Kong's new consumer stocks weakened due to the sharp drop in leading trendy toy stocks, but the valuation of the consumer track is already at a very low level. Some leading companies may still be worth watching for opportunities amid short-term negative factors and the broader weakness of the Hong Kong stock market. Technical Analysis From the chart perspective, Pop Mart’s stock price fell sharply from a high of HKD 217.2 on March 25 to around HKD 141.8, dropping approximately 34.7% over eight trading sessions, followed by a strong rebound on April 8. Based on technical data as of April 8, Pop Mart...
Market News Integration
On the news front, Pop Mart has seen mixed bullish and bearish factors recently. Fundamentally, the 2025 performance was impressive: revenue exceeded RMB 37.12 billion, up 184.7% year-over-year; net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 12.78 billion, up 308.8% year-over-year; adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders hit RMB 13.08 billion, increasing by 284.5% year-over-year. Gross margin reached 72.1%, improving by 5.3 percentage points, with overseas business accounting for 43.8%. However, management provided growth guidance of 'no less than 20%' for 2026 during the earnings call, significantly slower compared to nearly doubling growth in 2025, interpreted by the market as a 'loss of momentum' signal. On the day of the earnings release, the stock plummeted 22.51%, marking the largest single-day drop since listing, followed by volatility: it dropped another 10.46% on March 26, after which the company announced a buyback of approximately HK$600 million. On March 27, it repurchased another HK$300 million worth of shares, prompting investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS Group to begin downgrading their target prices intensively.
Bullish strategy:
BNP Paribas Call Warrant (27714) $BPPOMRT@EC2712A.C (27714.HK)$ : Exercise price HK$180, leverage 1.7x, premium and implied volatility among the lowest in its category, offering the most cost-effective option. Suitable for investors expecting the stock price to break through HK$178.6 and target HK$205.
Societe Generale Bull Certificate (67864) $SG#POMRTRC2612B.C (67864.HK)$ : Recovery price HK$130.8, actual leverage 5.5x, lowest premium, recovery price below the first support level of HK$139.1, providing ample safety margin. Suitable for aggressive investors looking to capture short-term rebounds.
Bearish strategy:
UBS Group Put Warrant (22558) $UBPOMRT@EP2607A.P (22558.HK)$ : Strike price at HKD 162.82 (in-the-money), leverage of 3.2x, with the lowest premium and implied volatility. Suitable for investors expecting the share price to be capped by resistance at HKD 178.6 and retreat.
UBS Group Bear Certificate (69183) $UB#POMRTRP2812S.P (69183.HK)$ : Recovery price at HKD 180, actual leverage of 4.6x, with the lowest premium. The recovery price is slightly above the first resistance level, making it a close-range deployment suitable for short-term bearish bets. However, note that if the stock price breaks through HKD 180, there is a risk of forced recovery.
Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced extreme volatility recently, with a significant pullback after the earnings release, followed by a notable rebound. As of April 8, 2026, Pop Mart closed at HKD 152.6, rising 7.62% in a single day, peaking intraday at HKD 155.1. The trading volume reached HKD 6.175 billion, with net inflows of HKD 625 million from major funds. The stock plummeted 34.7% after the earnings announcement on March 25, wiping out nearly HKD 100 billion in market value. Recently, it found support near HKD 140 and began to recover.Today (April 9), the stock price hit a high of HKD 156.5, with an increase of 2.29%. Performance of Stocks in the Same Sector The trend in the trendy toy and consumer goods sector has been diverging recently. Miniso (09896.HK) closed at HKD 32.6 on April 9, but southbound funds have continued to reduce holdings over the past five trading days, accumulating a net reduction of 3.3871 million shares. The technical trend is weak. The trendy toy industry overall shows a divided pattern. Hong Kong's new consumer stocks weakened due to the sharp drop in leading trendy toy stocks, but the valuation of the consumer track is already at a very low level. Some leading companies may still be worth watching for opportunities amid short-term negative factors and the broader weakness of the Hong Kong stock market. Technical Analysis From the chart perspective, Pop Mart’s stock price fell sharply from a high of HKD 217.2 on March 25 to around HKD 141.8, dropping approximately 34.7% over eight trading sessions, followed by a strong rebound on April 8. Based on technical data as of April 8, Pop Mart...
Warrant Review: The Societe Generale Bull Certificate (68300) and UBS Group Bull Certificate mentioned on April 1st rose by 17% and 18%, respectively, over the following two days, while the underlying stock increased by 5.02% during the same period, demonstrating clear leverage effects.
Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced extreme volatility recently, with a significant pullback after the earnings release, followed by a notable rebound. As of April 8, 2026, Pop Mart closed at HKD 152.6, rising 7.62% in a single day, peaking intraday at HKD 155.1. The trading volume reached HKD 6.175 billion, with net inflows of HKD 625 million from major funds. The stock plummeted 34.7% after the earnings announcement on March 25, wiping out nearly HKD 100 billion in market value. Recently, it found support near HKD 140 and began to recover.Today (April 9), the stock price hit a high of HKD 156.5, with an increase of 2.29%. Performance of Stocks in the Same Sector The trend in the trendy toy and consumer goods sector has been diverging recently. Miniso (09896.HK) closed at HKD 32.6 on April 9, but southbound funds have continued to reduce holdings over the past five trading days, accumulating a net reduction of 3.3871 million shares. The technical trend is weak. The trendy toy industry overall shows a divided pattern. Hong Kong's new consumer stocks weakened due to the sharp drop in leading trendy toy stocks, but the valuation of the consumer track is already at a very low level. Some leading companies may still be worth watching for opportunities amid short-term negative factors and the broader weakness of the Hong Kong stock market. Technical Analysis From the chart perspective, Pop Mart’s stock price fell sharply from a high of HKD 217.2 on March 25 to around HKD 141.8, dropping approximately 34.7% over eight trading sessions, followed by a strong rebound on April 8. Based on technical data as of April 8, Pop Mart...
Operational Reminder: Due to recent sharp fluctuations in the stock price, out-of-the-money call warrants (e.g., strike price at HKD 180) require significant gains in the underlying stock to profit. For bull/bear certificates, strict control over the recovery distance is necessary. The region offering better short-term betting value involves deploying bull certificates near the support level of HKD 139 or bear certificates near the resistance level of HKD 178.6.
Overall, Pop Mart's stock price is currently in a strong rebound phase after being oversold and building a bottom, successfully reclaiming the HKD 150 level. Resistance at HKD 178.6 will determine the short-term direction. Fundamentally, positive factors include impressive 2025 earnings, intensive buybacks totaling nearly HKD 1.4 billion, strong sales of World Cup co-branded products, and support from Duan Yongping. However, the market remains divided over growth guidance for 2026, with previous sharp declines in the stock price reflecting concerns about slowing growth. Investors should strictly manage risks when deploying strategies, choosing appropriate derivatives based on key support levels of HKD 139.1 and HKD 100.3, as well as resistance levels at HKD 178.6 and HKD 205, while considering the impact of out-of-the-money levels on product performance.
Interactive Q&A:
Which derivative tool would you choose to deploy for Pop Mart?
A) BNP Paribas Call Warrant 27714, betting on a breakout above HKD 180
B) Societe Generale Bull Certificate 67864, betting on a short-term rebound
C) UBS Group bear certificate 69183, betting on a pullback after resistance
Feel free to leave comments for discussion!
Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for deeper analysis of the warrants and bull/bear certificates market!
#POP MART #09992 #Hong Kong Stocks #Technical Analysis #Support and Resistance Levels #Warrants #Bull/Bear Certificates #Call Warrants #Put Warrants #Trendy Toy Sector #Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met and should be used alongside other data for a comprehensive assessment of asset performance; trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s HK warrants for more professional insights. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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