Meituan (03690) Short-term Technical Analysis: Bullish and Bearish Tussle at Key Support

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Early trading saw a drop below the bull-bear demarcation line (25141), $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$

Dropped over 3%, temporarily reaching a low of 79.1 yuan during trading, once again breaking below the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages.

Multiple oscillation indicators are currently in a 'neutral' state, including the Stochastic Oscillator (KD) and CCI, showing no extreme overbought or oversold pressure in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at the neutral level of 50, further confirming this balanced pattern. However, on the momentum indicator front, we observe some positive signs: both the Momentum Oscillation Indicator (MTM) and Rate of Change (ROC) have issued 'buy' signals, while the bull-bear power indicator has also turned to 'buy', suggesting that downward momentum may be weakening and buying power is quietly accumulating. Most noteworthy is the trend indicator MACD, which has turned to a 'buy' signal, usually a forward-looking hint that short-term trends may strengthen. However, the Ichimoku Cloud gives a 'sell' signal, creating conflicting signals, reminding investors to cautiously assess the sustainability of the rebound.

In terms of key price levels, the first solid support is at 77.4 yuan, with stronger support at 72.2 yuan. On the upside, the first target is to challenge 88.9 yuan (near the 60-day moving average), and if successfully broken, it could further test the 91.7 yuan area. The stock price is currently running close to the first support level and the 10-day moving average, and if effective support and rebound can be obtained in this area, it will enhance the stability of the short-term technical structure.

Summary and Strategy Signal Analysis

In summary, Meituan's short-term technical chart presents a "bottoming out awaiting change" scenario. Although several oscillation indicators remain neutral, indicating unclear direction, improvements in some momentum indicators and a buy signal from the MACD provide technical justification for the stock price to stabilize and attempt a rebound within the critical support zone (77.4-80.2 yuan). However, the sell signal from the Ichimoku Cloud and the heavy moving average pressure above (especially the 60-day moving average) suggest that any rebound may face challenges in its early stages, and a trend reversal will not happen overnight.

Meituan call warrants have continued to decline over the past three days, dropping from 2768.62 million shares on March 30 to 2490.87 million shares on April 1, with a cumulative decrease of 277.75 million shares, representing a 10.03% drop, showing a rapid cooling of short-term bullish sentiment. Put warrants also contracted simultaneously, decreasing from 230.86 million shares to 193.75 million shares, with a cumulative reduction of 37.11 million shares, marking a 16.07% drop. Bearish forces were similarly released, significantly reducing non-leveraged directional trading activity.

Bull certificates grew against the trend, rising from 288.92 million shares to 314.27 million shares, with a cumulative increase of 25.35 million shares, an 8.77% rise, and the growth rate notably expanded on April 1, reflecting continued inflows of leveraged capital with a bullish bias. Bear certificates initially rose then fell, slightly declining from 43.52 million shares to 42.05 million shares, with a cumulative decrease of 3.38%, showing a pullback in short-term bearish leveraged capital.

On March 30, 2026, Meituan’s (03690) share price cumulatively fell by 2.67% over two days, and products oriented toward short-selling fully increased, among which $SG#MTUANRP2812Q.P (60671.HK)$ 、 $HS#MTUANRP2807C.P (60508.HK)$ rose by 17%, $UBMTUAN@EP2609C.P (24595.HK)$ rose by 9%, $BIMTUAN@EP2609A.P (19959.HK)$ rose by 7%, forming corresponding leveraged return characteristics relative to the underlying stock’s decline.

For investors looking to use leverage to capture Meituan’s short-term volatility, the following products can be considered based on different judgments about future market directions. If a rebound at the current support level is anticipated, attention can be paid to out-of-the-money call warrants with attractive premiums, such as $BIMTUAN@EC2608B.C (25814.HK)$ , with an exercise price of 97.9 yuan, offering the highest leverage among similar products, effectively amplifying potential rebound gains. $UBMTUAN@EC2608B.C (26081.HK)$The strike price is 97.95 yuan, with relatively low implied volatility; the pressure from time value erosion may be smaller. For those who are optimistic about a rebound but want to control premium risk,$UB#MTUANRC2701A.C (60462.HK)$ (recovery price of 72.6 yuan) and$JP#MTUANRC2609G.C (63797.HK)$ (recovery price of 72.5 yuan) both have relatively low premiums, offering higher leverage efficiency.

Conversely, if you believe the rebound will be weak and the stock price will test support again, you can focus on put warrants and bearish contracts.$BIMTUAN@EP2612C.P (27411.HK)$The strike price is 71.83 yuan, with relatively ideal leverage and implied volatility; and$UBMTUAN@EP2612B.P (27240.HK)$The strike price is also 71.83 yuan, with the lowest premium and implied volatility, showing a clear cost advantage. For investors who are bearish on the future market and can tolerate recovery risk,$SG#MTUANRP2812Q.P (60671.HK)$ and $HS#MTUANRP2807C.P (60508.HK)$The recovery price is set at 95 yuan, providing higher actual leverage; the latter has the lowest premium, making it a more efficient bearish tool. Investors should choose suitable products based on their own risk tolerance and specific market judgments.

If Meituan's share price subsequently tests the first support level at 77.4 yuan, do you think the current street-level structure is sufficient to stabilize the share price? The simultaneous decline in call and put warrant volumes indicates that retail investors'观望情绪is rising. Could this amplify short-term share price volatility?

Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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