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How to view the post-holiday market trend in Hong Kong stocks?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Feb 25 09:06

[Warrant Perspective] Multiple sell signals for Hang Seng Index, will the short-term volatile pattern persist?

On February 24, the Hong Kong stock market showed weakness, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
Closing at 26,590.32 points, down 1.82% in a single day, with a turnover of 250.992 billion yuan and a 5-day volatility of 3%.
From a technical indicator perspective, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) RSI is at 48, in the neutral zone; multiple oscillation indicators such as MACD, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator are showing sell signals. The overall technical signal is neutral with a strength of 8.
On February 24, the Hong Kong stock market showed weakness, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Closing at 26,590.32 points, down 1.82% in a single day, with a turnover of 250.992 billion yuan and a 5-day volatility of 3%. From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI of the Hang Seng Index is 48, which is in the neutral zone; multiple oscillation indicators such as MACD, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator are showing sell signals. The overall technical signal is neutral, with an intensity of 8. The support levels for the Hang Seng Index are 26,277 points and 25,909 points, while resistance levels lie at 27,142 points and 27,820 points. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support near 26,277 points. If it can stabilize, there may be a short-term rebound; otherwise, it might further test lower supports. Key blue chips fell across the board on February 24, with technical patterns showing divergence trends. A detailed analysis combined with various stock indices is as follows: 1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 520.00 yuan, down 3.35% in a single day, with volume supporting the decline. The short-term trend appears weak. Technically, the closing price is below MA10 (538.70 yuan), MA30 (582.62 yuan), and MA60 (596.71 yuan), currently trading below all moving averages. The RSI is 27, already entering the oversold region, signaling a short-term over-adjustment. Notably, the comprehensive technical indicator summary signal is 'Buy,' with an intensity as high as 10. Several moving average signals suggest 'Strong Buy.' Focus should be placed on a potential rebound after the oversold situation...
The support levels for the HSI are at 26,277 and 25,909 points, while resistance levels stand at 27,142 and 27,820 points. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support strength near 26,277 points. If it can stabilize, a short-term rebound might occur; otherwise, further testing of lower supports is possible.
On February 24, the Hong Kong stock market showed weakness, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Closing at 26,590.32 points, down 1.82% in a single day, with a turnover of 250.992 billion yuan and a 5-day volatility of 3%. From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI of the Hang Seng Index is 48, which is in the neutral zone; multiple oscillation indicators such as MACD, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator are showing sell signals. The overall technical signal is neutral, with an intensity of 8. The support levels for the Hang Seng Index are 26,277 points and 25,909 points, while resistance levels lie at 27,142 points and 27,820 points. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support near 26,277 points. If it can stabilize, there may be a short-term rebound; otherwise, it might further test lower supports. Key blue chips fell across the board on February 24, with technical patterns showing divergence trends. A detailed analysis combined with various stock indices is as follows: 1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 520.00 yuan, down 3.35% in a single day, with volume supporting the decline. The short-term trend appears weak. Technically, the closing price is below MA10 (538.70 yuan), MA30 (582.62 yuan), and MA60 (596.71 yuan), currently trading below all moving averages. The RSI is 27, already entering the oversold region, signaling a short-term over-adjustment. Notably, the comprehensive technical indicator summary signal is 'Buy,' with an intensity as high as 10. Several moving average signals suggest 'Strong Buy.' Focus should be placed on a potential rebound after the oversold situation...
Key blue-chip stocks plunged across the board on February 24th, displaying divergent technical patterns. Detailed analysis of various stock indicators follows below:
1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 520.00 yuan, down 3.35% in a single day, with volume supporting the decline, showing a weaker short-term trend. Technically, the closing price is below MA10 (538.70 yuan), MA30 (582.62 yuan), and MA60 (596.71 yuan), operating below all moving averages in the short term. The RSI is at 27, entering the oversold region, which is a signal of short-term over-adjustment. Notably, the comprehensive technical indicator summary shows a 'Buy' signal with a high strength of 10, and multiple moving average signals suggest a 'Strong Buy.' Subsequent focus will be on the rebound potential after the oversold condition.
2. $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ : Closing price at 135.30 yuan, down 0.44% in a single day, with relatively small losses indicating slightly stronger resilience. The closing price is below MA10 (136.91 yuan) but slightly above MA30 (133.32 yuan), oscillating between short-term and medium-term moving averages. The RSI is at 51, within an absolutely neutral range. The comprehensive technical signal is 'Neutral' with a strength of 10, and multiple moving average signals indicate 'Sell.' In the short term, the stock is likely to maintain a consolidation pattern without a clear trend.
3. $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ : Closing price at 79.05 yuan, down 0.50% in a single day, showing a relatively stable trend. The closing price is slightly above MA10 (78.74 yuan) but below MA30 (79.44 yuan) and MA60 (82.10 yuan), with noticeable pressure from MA30 in the short term. The RSI is at 48, close to the lower limit of the neutral zone. The comprehensive technical signal is 'Buy' with a strength of 8, and multiple moving average signals also suggest 'Buy.' If it can break through the MA30 pressure, there may be room for further upward movement.
4. Summary of other blue chips: $CCB (00939.HK)$ 、 $ICBC (01398.HK)$ 、 $BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$ Three major mainland banking stocks show consistent technical signals, all indicating 'Sell' with strengths of 8-9, suggesting significant short-term adjustment pressures. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ 、 $CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK)$ Signals are either 'Buy' or 'Neutral.' Notably, HKEX (00388) has an RSI of 46, nearing the oversold edge, warranting some attention. $AIA (01299.HK)$ 、 $PING AN (02318.HK)$ The signal is 'Neutral,' with short-term fluctuations expected and no clear direction in sight.
Review and Selection of Warrants and Bull/Bear Products:
(1) Review of Past Warrants and Bull/Bear Products:
Looking back at the two Hang Seng Index warrant and bull/bear products recommended on February 13, 2026, their performance was impressive: $BI#HSI RP2803E.P (58474.HK)$ 、 $BI#HSI RP2803Q.P (55030.HK)$ Both products recorded a 10% increase two days later, while the Hang Seng Index only dropped by 0.58% during the same period. This fully demonstrates the leverage effect of warrant and bull/bear products and validates the logic of product screening based on market trends, providing investors with a reference for review.
On February 24, the Hong Kong stock market showed weakness, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Closing at 26,590.32 points, down 1.82% in a single day, with a turnover of 250.992 billion yuan and a 5-day volatility of 3%. From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI of the Hang Seng Index is 48, which is in the neutral zone; multiple oscillation indicators such as MACD, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator are showing sell signals. The overall technical signal is neutral, with an intensity of 8. The support levels for the Hang Seng Index are 26,277 points and 25,909 points, while resistance levels lie at 27,142 points and 27,820 points. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support near 26,277 points. If it can stabilize, there may be a short-term rebound; otherwise, it might further test lower supports. Key blue chips fell across the board on February 24, with technical patterns showing divergence trends. A detailed analysis combined with various stock indices is as follows: 1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 520.00 yuan, down 3.35% in a single day, with volume supporting the decline. The short-term trend appears weak. Technically, the closing price is below MA10 (538.70 yuan), MA30 (582.62 yuan), and MA60 (596.71 yuan), currently trading below all moving averages. The RSI is 27, already entering the oversold region, signaling a short-term over-adjustment. Notably, the comprehensive technical indicator summary signal is 'Buy,' with an intensity as high as 10. Several moving average signals suggest 'Strong Buy.' Focus should be placed on a potential rebound after the oversold situation...
(2) Selection of Warrant Products (Based on Hang Seng Index Trends)
By combining the adjustment trend of the Hang Seng Index, technical signals, and product data, we have selected two warrant products that focus on low premiums and appropriate leverage, for investors' reference:
1. $BI-HSI @EP2605B.P (23127.HK)$ : Leverage of 12.5 times, exercise price at 24,875 points. The key advantage of this product is its premium and implied volatility, both of which are the lowest among currently available options, showing a clear cost advantage. It suits investors who are cautious about the short-term trend of the Hang Seng Index and wish to avoid adjustment risks, aligning well with the current adjustment pattern of the index.
2. $UB#HSI RP2811A.P (54764.HK)$ : Leverage of 24.9 times, recovery price at 27,550 points. This product has the lowest premium and high actual leverage, offering excellent value. It suits investors who expect the Hang Seng Index to have further room for adjustment in the short term and seek reasonable leverage returns, but they should be mindful of the recovery risk for bear contracts and manage positions appropriately.
Risk Warning:Warrants and bull/bear products are derivatives with significant leverage effects and relatively higher risks. Investors should choose carefully based on their own risk tolerance and avoid blindly following trends.
On February 24, the Hong Kong stock market showed weakness, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Closing at 26,590.32 points, down 1.82% in a single day, with a turnover of 250.992 billion yuan and a 5-day volatility of 3%. From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI of the Hang Seng Index is 48, which is in the neutral zone; multiple oscillation indicators such as MACD, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator are showing sell signals. The overall technical signal is neutral, with an intensity of 8. The support levels for the Hang Seng Index are 26,277 points and 25,909 points, while resistance levels lie at 27,142 points and 27,820 points. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support near 26,277 points. If it can stabilize, there may be a short-term rebound; otherwise, it might further test lower supports. Key blue chips fell across the board on February 24, with technical patterns showing divergence trends. A detailed analysis combined with various stock indices is as follows: 1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 520.00 yuan, down 3.35% in a single day, with volume supporting the decline. The short-term trend appears weak. Technically, the closing price is below MA10 (538.70 yuan), MA30 (582.62 yuan), and MA60 (596.71 yuan), currently trading below all moving averages. The RSI is 27, already entering the oversold region, signaling a short-term over-adjustment. Notably, the comprehensive technical indicator summary signal is 'Buy,' with an intensity as high as 10. Several moving average signals suggest 'Strong Buy.' Focus should be placed on a potential rebound after the oversold situation...
On February 24, the Hong Kong stock market showed weakness, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Closing at 26,590.32 points, down 1.82% in a single day, with a turnover of 250.992 billion yuan and a 5-day volatility of 3%. From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI of the Hang Seng Index is 48, which is in the neutral zone; multiple oscillation indicators such as MACD, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator are showing sell signals. The overall technical signal is neutral, with an intensity of 8. The support levels for the Hang Seng Index are 26,277 points and 25,909 points, while resistance levels lie at 27,142 points and 27,820 points. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support near 26,277 points. If it can stabilize, there may be a short-term rebound; otherwise, it might further test lower supports. Key blue chips fell across the board on February 24, with technical patterns showing divergence trends. A detailed analysis combined with various stock indices is as follows: 1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 520.00 yuan, down 3.35% in a single day, with volume supporting the decline. The short-term trend appears weak. Technically, the closing price is below MA10 (538.70 yuan), MA30 (582.62 yuan), and MA60 (596.71 yuan), currently trading below all moving averages. The RSI is 27, already entering the oversold region, signaling a short-term over-adjustment. Notably, the comprehensive technical indicator summary signal is 'Buy,' with an intensity as high as 10. Several moving average signals suggest 'Strong Buy.' Focus should be placed on a potential rebound after the oversold situation...
Facing adjustments in the Hang Seng Index, how would you handle your warrants?
A. Hold steady and wait for a rebound. B. Reduce positions appropriately to manage risk. C. Increase holdings in low-premium targets for leveraged returns.
Come to the comment section and share your thoughts! Want to see more analysis? Remember to follow 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #BlueChipStocks #HongKongBlueChips #TechnicalAnalysis #HangSengIndexTrends
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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