[Warrant Perspective] Hang Seng Index tests key support at 26,200 points; trading volume is crucial for stabilization

On February 6, the overall Hong Kong stock market was weak, and we also provided commentary in 【HKG Broadcast】 $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

, the Hang Seng Index showed a downward trend on that day, falling by approximately 1.2%, closing at 26,559 points. The trading volume slightly shrank compared to last Thursday (February 5), with a turnover of approximately HKD 247.865 billion.

From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index has been continuously correcting recently, once dropping to near 26,200 points during the session. This kind of movement might affect market sentiment. It is normal to see divergence in bullish and bearish views in the market, partly due to market volatility itself, and partly because investors focus on different time horizons—some emphasize short-term trading while others analyze from a medium- to long-term perspective. We do not predict market trends; the provided technical analysis and data are for reference only, aiming to assist everyone in making judgments based on their own investment styles.

The HSI RSI is at 47 (neutral signal), and the overall technical indicator summary signal is neutral (signal strength 9). Among several oscillators, the Williams %R is in oversold territory but remains generally neutral, while indicators like MACD and CCI are showing sell signals. The overall technical outlook leans cautious. In terms of support and resistance levels: first support at 26,064 points, second support at 25,472 points. Resistance levels: first resistance at 27,254 points, second resistance at 27,648 points.

On February 6, major blue-chip stocks in the Hong Kong market generally declined, with technology stocks experiencing relatively significant drops, and some individual stocks showing signs of being oversold. Meanwhile, a few banking stocks bucked the trend and closed higher. Specific technical details are as follows:

1. Tencent (00700): closed at HKD 547.5 (down 1.97%), RSI 25 indicates oversold conditions, technical signals strongly suggest buying; stock price is below all moving averages, weakening but with potential for a rebound.

2. Alibaba (09988): closed at HKD 155.0 (down 2.88%), RSI 44, technical signals strongly suggest buying; stock price is slightly above MA60, short-term moving averages under pressure.

3. Meituan-W (03690): closed at HKD 91.4 (down 2.56%), RSI 33 indicates oversold conditions, technical signals strongly suggest buying; stock price is below all moving averages, weakness may indicate bottom formation.

4. HSBC Holdings (00005): closed at HKD 134.8 (down 2.67%), RSI 58, technical signals are neutral; stock price is near MA10, mid-to-long term trends remain strong.

5. AIA (01299): closed at HKD 83.5 (down 5.54%), RSI 47, technical signals strongly suggest buying; stock price is slightly above MA60, potential rebound after a significant drop.

6. Hong Kong Exchange (00388): Closed at HKD 407.6 (down 1.64%), RSI 39, technical signal strongly suggests buying; stock price is below all moving averages, weakening but indicators remain positive.

7. China Construction Bank (00939): Closed at HKD 7.97 (up 0.63%), RSI 58, technical signal neutral; stock price above MA10/MA30, short-term momentum strengthening.

8. Ping An (02318): Closed at HKD 69.6 (down 2.18%), RSI 55, technical signal slightly favors buying; stock price above MA30/MA60, mid-to-long term outlook stable.

9. ICBC (01398): Closed at HKD 6.49 (up 0.46%), RSI 60, technical signal neutral; moving averages in bullish alignment, but overbought risk indicated.

10. China Mobile (00941): Closed at HKD 80.2 (down 0.25%), RSI 49, technical signal neutral; stock price above MA10, below MA30/MA60, trend remains stable.

Blue-chip stocks on February 6 showed a pattern of 'general decline with some individual gains.' Investors should focus on two aspects: First, oversold signals in tech stocks—if subsequent trading volume rebounds, attention can be paid based on individual trading cycles. Second, diverging trends in mainland bank stocks—avoid blindly following upward moves and pay close attention to the alignment between moving averages and RSI indicators.

(I) Recent Review of Bull and Bear Warrants

Review of the two Hang Seng Index bull contracts recommended on February 2 (data for reference only):

1. J.P. Morgan Bull Contract (66685): Increased by 11% after two days, compared to a 0.27% rise in Hang Seng Index during the same period.

2. UBS Group Bull Contract (65182): Increased by 12% after two days, compared to a 0.27% rise in Hang Seng Index during the same period.

Friendly reminder: Bull and bear warrants carry leverage attributes, leading to significant volatility. Investors need to closely monitor market movements, trade cautiously, and manage risk carefully.

(II) Selected Warrants and Bull/Bear Contracts:

Based on Hang Seng Index trends and technical analysis, two selected warrant products are provided for investor reference:

1. UBS Group Call Warrant (23091): Leverage 13x, strike price 28341, product highlights include ideal leverage and implied volatility.

2. BOC Bull (63488): Leverage 25.3, recovery price 25595, product features include relatively low premium.

Risk Warning: Investors should combine their own market judgment and choose carefully.

In the face of the Hang Seng Index's continued pullback, will you choose to hold cash and wait or seize the opportunity to position yourself? Come to the comment section and share your thoughts.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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