$SMIC (00981.HK)$ SMIC terms deeply linked: Anchoring product redemption price/exercise price to key technical levels

$SMIC (00981.HK)$ SMIC terms deeply linked: Anchoring product redemption price/exercise price to key technical levels

As of February 6, 2026, the semiconductor sector in the Hong Kong stock market experienced a technical rebound. SMIC (00981.HK), as the industry leader, saw its share price rise slightly by 1.85% to HKD 68.75 after a period of adjustment. However, observing longer-term data, the stock has still recorded a certain decline since the beginning of this year, reflecting that the market is currently undergoing a complex high-level adjustment phase. This article will integrate the latest technical analysis, key price levels, market dynamics, and expert opinions to explore SMIC’s current short-term trading focus and corresponding derivatives strategies.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Analysis

In the current volatile market environment where bottoming-out patterns are forming, clear key technical levels are crucial for formulating trading strategies. According to the latest analytical data, SMIC's core technical framework is as follows:

The key support area below is located near 64.9 yuan, which is the recent dense trading zone and also the primary battleground for short-term bulls and bears. If this support level fails, the psychological market defense will shift to a more critical level at 59.5 yuan. This level is considered the 'touchstone' for testing the depth of the current correction, with expected strong support.

The resistance area above has its first target at breaking through the 10-day moving average, challenging 73.3 yuan, an important technical platform from the previous period. A stronger resistance level lies near 77.3 yuan, where the 60-day moving average and previous high converge. Successfully breaking through this level would be a key signal for reversing the current correction pattern and restarting an upward trend.

In-depth Integration of 'BOC Guest' Column Views and Market Dynamics

January 20th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart, Zijin Mining, Li Ning, Midea

In the January 20 episode of 'BOC Guest,' Niki, a director at BOC International, provided a professional in-depth analysis of SMIC's current situation. She noted that after entering 2026, the stock price entered a 'high-level adjustment' pattern, neither showing particular strength nor excessive weakness. Despite facing short-term pullbacks and market volatility, Niki emphasized that investors should maintain confidence in the long-term growth logic of the high-tech chip industry. She mentioned that industry consolidation (such as acquisitions and mergers) is ongoing, which helps strengthen the entire industrial ecosystem and provides a long-term development foundation for leading companies like SMIC. Therefore, even during stock price adjustments, the market still sees signs of investors actively using derivatives to position themselves for a rebound.

Niki keenly captured an important market change during the program: investor demand for leverage tools is increasing. She pointed out that the leverage of SMIC call warrants used to range between 2-4x, offering limited appeal to investors seeking higher capital efficiency. In response to market demand, BOC International launched the Bull Certificate 65935. She analyzed the core terms of the product in detail: the stop-loss price was set at 71.3 yuan, maintaining a 'safe distance' of about 3 yuan from the then-current stock price. More importantly, its actual leverage could reach approximately 15x, much higher than traditional call warrants, expiring in December of the same year. Niki believes that for investors looking for rebound opportunities during stock price adjustments and preferring higher capital efficiency, this is a noteworthy option.

From a market dynamics perspective, sentiment in the sector has somewhat recovered. During February 5-6, the Hong Kong-listed semiconductor sector collectively surged mid-session, indicating that some bottom-fishing funds began to intervene. At the company level, according to disclosed quarterly reports, SMIC achieved dual growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, maintaining a solid fundamental outlook. Notably, in communications with investors, the company mentioned that its third-quarter capacity utilization reached a high level and benefited from improved product mix optimization, which contributed to an increase in average selling prices. These factors form intrinsic support for its share price.

Review of Warrant Products: The Leverage Effect of Bearish Strategies Amid Market Adjustments

A review of historical data confirms that when there is a clear judgment on market direction, using derivatives can more effectively capture price fluctuations. On February 3, the market was bearish on SMIC’s movement. Over the next two trading days, the underlying stock fell cumulatively by 4.26%. During this period, the mentioned bearish derivatives leveraged their characteristics to record significant gains surpassing the stock's decline: Societe Generale Bear Certificate (59399) rose 30%, UBS Group Bear Certificate (63354) rose 27%, and UBS Group Put Warrant (21404) $UB-SMIC@EP2605A.P (21404.HK)$ rose 20%, BOC Put Warrant (21097) $BI-SMIC@EP2605A.P (21097.HK)$ rose 17%.

Current Analysis of Warrant and Bull/Bear Certificate Product Terms and Strategy Correlations

Considering the current stock price oscillating near key technical levels, with significant market divergence between bulls and bears, investors can deeply align the terms of the following products with the aforementioned core price levels based on different market views to construct corresponding strategies.

Bullish Strategy: Speculating on Technical Rebound while Strictly Controlling Recovery Risk

If investors agree with the long-term positive industry logic presented in 'BOC Guest' and believe that the stock price could find support and rebound near HKD 64.9 or HKD 59.5, they may consider the following products. In 'BOC Guest,' Niki also emphasized the importance of recovery distance.

* HSBC Bull Certificate (60684) $HS#SMIC RC2605A.C (60684.HK)$ and UBS Group Bull Certificate (60514) $UB#SMIC RC2604C.C (60514.HK)$ : The recovery prices of these two bull certificates are set at HKD 60 and HKD 61 respectively, both below or close to the critical second support level of HKD 59.5, providing a relatively ample safety buffer. Their features of 'highest actual leverage, lowest premium' and 'high actual leverage, low premium' suit investors who wish to speculate on a rebound while placing high importance on downside protection to avoid forced recovery triggered by an unexpected rapid drop in stock price.

* UBS Group Call Warrant (20322) $UB-SMIC@EC2606B.C (20322.HK)$ and BOC Call Warrant (20089) $BI-SMIC@EC2607A.C (20089.HK)$ : For investors unwilling to bear the mandatory recovery risk of bull/bear certificates and preferring traditional option structures, call warrants can be considered. The exercise prices of these two products are both HKD 80.05, moderately out-of-the-money, offering approximately 5-4.5 times actual leverage, suitable for speculating that the stock price will effectively break through resistance levels at HKD 73.3 or even HKD 77.3, initiating a corrective rally. Among them, the BOC Call Warrant has the term advantage of 'lowest implied volatility, relatively higher leverage'.

Bearish or hedging strategy: Guard against market volatility, betting on the continuation of adjustments

If investors believe the current technical rebound is merely a mid-way bounce in a downtrend, and that the stock price may continue to test key support levels or even break below them, they can focus on the following products.

* UBS Group Put Warrant (15954) $UB-SMIC@EP2606A.P (15954.HK)$ and Bank of China Put Warrant (21281) $BI-SMIC@EP2606A.P (21281.HK)$ : The strike prices of these two put warrants are both at 62.76 yuan, slightly below the first support level of 64.9 yuan. Their 'relatively ideal leverage and implied volatility' and 'relatively low implied volatility' characteristics make them effective tools for hedging long stock positions or directly expressing the view that the share price will test lower support levels.

* BNP Paribas Bear Certificate (63720) $BP#SMIC RP2712O.P (63720.HK)$ : This bear certificate has a stop-loss level set at 82 yuan, far above the current stock price and the second resistance level of 77.3 yuan, providing a very high safety margin. Its terms of 'highest actual leverage, lowest premium' make it suitable for expressing the view that there is limited upside for a stock rebound, and that medium-term adjustments may continue.

Professional Reminder for Derivatives Investment

Warrants and bull/bear certificates are complex financial derivatives whose performance depends not only on the direction of the underlying stock price. Bull/bear certificates have a mandatory stop-loss mechanism; if the underlying stock price touches the stop-loss level during trading hours, the product will terminate immediately, and investors may lose their entire principal. The value of warrants is simultaneously affected by multiple factors such as the underlying stock price, implied volatility, time decay, and market liquidity. Even if the directional view is correct, losses may occur due to other factors. In the 'Bank of China Guest' program, guests also recommended that investors clearly understand the stop-loss levels and risks when choosing highly leveraged products. Before trading, investors must carefully read the relevant listing documents to fully understand the product features and all associated risks.

Based on SMIC’s current pattern of oscillation near key technical levels, we propose the following question and invite all investors to share their insights:

1. As the stock price approaches the first support level of 64.9 yuan and the RSI is at a relatively low level, do you believe the current market should focus more on the technical opportunity for a rebound from an oversold condition, or on guarding against the risk of a continued mid-term adjustment trend?

2. When choosing derivatives to express market views, do you think that in the current environment, the combination of 'high leverage and mandatory stop-loss risk' associated with bull-bear certificates is more important, or should the 'no mandatory stop-loss but with time decay' characteristic of warrants be given priority?

This article does not constitute any investment advice

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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