[Warrant Perspective] The Hang Seng Index continues in a volatile pattern; how to position amidst the tug-of-war between bulls and bears?

On February 3, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

The index closed at 26,834.77 points, up 0.22% for the day, with a trading volume of 335.152 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility reached 6.1%, consistent with recent characteristics of significant market fluctuations.

In yesterday’s [BOC Guest]February 3rd [BOC Guest]: Hang Seng Index, China Mobile, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, Pop Mart, Xiaomi Groupsegment, Niki Zhu Hong, Director at BOC International, commented on the Hang Seng Index: In fact, looking at the recent market situation since the beginning of this year, January, we’ve seen that global financial markets have been influenced by various international news and commodity price fluctuations, impacting investors’ nerves. Therefore, the volatility of the broader market has significantly increased, often swinging around 800 points. Thus, in such a highly volatile market, investors should be more cautious when entering. Wait until the market clearly stabilizes before betting on a rebound—don’t rush in after a decline of just one or two hundred points thinking it's close to the bottom. $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$POP MART (09992.HK)$$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$

Further breaking down key technical signals of the Hang Seng Index: Support and resistance – main support at 26,160 points, strong support at 25,789 points; resistance at 27,557 points, strong resistance at 27,881 points, currently oscillating in the intermediate zone between support and resistance in the short term.

The RSI indicator is at 49, within the neutral range, showing no overbought or oversold signals; the MACD signal is neutral, with multiple moving averages indicating a buy signal, but overall oscillators lean towards neutrality. The combined signal strength of 8 reflects a strong market观望 atmosphere.

Moving average trend: MA10 at 27064.95 points, MA30 at 26545.61 points, MA60 at 26250.95 points; Hang Seng Index closing price is between MA30 and MA10, with short-term moving averages exerting some pressure on stock prices, while long-term averages provide support.

The Hong Kong stock market has developed individually. Below is a simplified summary of the core trends and technical highlights of 10 blue-chip stocks based on February 3rd closing data:

1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 581.00 (down 2.92%), stock price weaker than major moving averages, RSI at 29 indicates oversold conditions, comprehensive signal suggests buying but the trend remains weak.

2. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 93.20 (down 1.74%), weaker than MA10/MA30, RSI at 30 near oversold levels, strong buy signal hints at possible rebound.

3. $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 161.00 (down 1.41%), weaker than MA10, RSI at 46 neutral, unclear signals require waiting for a breakout.

4. $AIA (01299.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 89.45 (up 0.45%), stronger than MA10/MA30, RSI at 66 near overbought levels, buy signal but facing resistance.

5. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 422.00 (down 0.52%), contention near MA10, RSI at 45 neutral,浓厚观望气氛.

6. $CCB (00939.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 7.81 (down 0.26%), in line with MA10, stronger than MA30, RSI at 55 moderately strong, signal suggests buying.

7. $PING AN (02318.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 71.30 (up 0.85%), stronger than MA10/MA30, RSI at 62 indicates slight buying advantage, signal is neutral.

8. $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ : Closed at 90.00 yuan (down 1.10%), weaker than MA10/MA30, RSI 34 showing weakness, buy signal indicates accumulation interest.

9. $WUXI BIO (02269.HK)$ : Closed at 36.98 yuan (up 3.12%), rebound stronger than MA10/MA30, RSI 50 back to mid-axis, buy signal performance stands out.

10. Xiaomi Group (01810): Closed at 34.60 yuan (down 1.31%), weaker than MA10/MA30, RSI 31 near oversold, buy signal suggests potential rebound.

Summary: Most technology stocks are in or near oversold territory, holding short-term rebound potential; financial stocks remain relatively stable, with some banks and insurance stocks maintaining strength; Wuxi Bio became the day’s rebound leader. Investors may focus on the rebound strength of oversold shares.

Review of CBBCs and selected products:

Today (4th), we will first review the performance of previously recommended Hang Seng Index CBBC products, then select two suitable products. Investors should be mindful of derivatives risks and act within their means.

Review of previous CBBC performance:

The four Hang Seng Index-related CBBC products recommended on January 28, 2026, performed as follows two days later for investors' reference:

1、 $UB-HSI @EP2603A.P (20528.HK)$ : Increased by 20% after two days, corresponding to a 1.58% drop in the Hang Seng Index after two days, aligning with market trends;

2、 $UB#HSI RP2803A.P (58099.HK)$ : Increased by 33% after two days, corresponding to a 1.58% drop in the Hang Seng Index after two days, showing significant leverage effect;

3、 $BP-HSI @EP2603A.P (21062.HK)$: Up 11% in two days, compared to a 1.58% drop in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) over the same period, showing relatively stable fluctuations;

4、 $BI#HSI RP2803N.P (68553.HK)$: Up 33% in two days, compared to a 1.58% drop in the HSI over the same period, consistent with the performance of UBS Group bear certificates.

Review Reminder: The HSI has been highly volatile recently; put warrants and bear certificates have performed well. Investors should consider the overall market trend when trading CBBCs, avoid blindly pursuing high leverage, and pay attention to taking profits and stopping losses in time.

Today's精选 CBBC Products:

Based on the neutral oscillation trend of the HSI, we've selected two products with reasonable leverage, premium, and implied volatility, suitable for investors with different trading needs. For technical reference only:

1、 $BI-HSI @EC2609A.C (23798.HK)$: Leverage 7.2x, strike price 28,600 points; key features include relatively high leverage with low premium and implied volatility, suitable for investors optimistic about the HSI breaking through upper resistance levels and seeking short-term rebounds. Resistance level pressure should be noted.

2、 $UB-HSI @EP2605A.P (23089.HK)$: Leverage 11.1x, strike price 24,875 points; key features include ideal leverage and implied volatility, suitable for investors bearish on the HSI and concerned about the market retesting lower support levels. Support strength should be noted.

Risk Warning: CBBCs are high-risk derivatives. Investors must fully understand product characteristics and choose based on their risk tolerance. Avoid operating beyond your capacity.

On the previous day (Day 3), the HSI closed slightly higher. Do you think it will first challenge the resistance at 27,557 or retest the support at 26,160 in the short term?

Come to the comment section and share your thoughts! Want to see more analysis? Remember to follow 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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