Middle East conflict sparks safe-haven demand: Are precious metals entering a 'super cycle'?
Musk warns of a silver crisis! With gold and silver hitting new highs, how should investors catch up with this 'super cycle'?
Since the start of 2026, gold has continued last year’s historic rally, repeatedly hitting new highs.
On Monday, another new record was set in the gold market:Spot gold $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$breached $5,100 per ounce for the first time.Currently, it has only been just over 100 days since spot gold first broke through the $4,000 mark.Meanwhile, spot silver $XAG/USD (XAGUSD.FX)$has once again broken its all-time high.
This article will provide fellow investors with an in-depth breakdown of the precious metals market: from exploring the underlying drivers, to summarizing the views of Wall Street giants, to selecting the key stocks to watch, providing comprehensive support for everyone to seize this investment opportunity.
Elon Musk exclaimed 'Silver is going crazy'! Behind the surge in precious metals lie these three core logics
In fact, this is not just a short-term impulse driven by a single factor, but a cross-dimensional convergence of positive factors. Fromdefensive allocation of safe-haven assetstoexpectations of accommodative monetary policyand then toreal economy support from the industrial side, these three core forces are working in tandem, collectively driving up the value of precious metals and making their rally highly resilient.
First, macro risk premiums have risen significantly.Since early 2026, tensions between the US and NATO over Greenland have escalated, alongside growing market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and ongoing disruptions caused by global tariff policies, all of which are increasing the market's pricing of political and institutional risks.
Structural demand provides long-term support.The persistent physical gold purchases by global central banks, coupled with the deepening trend of 'de-dollarization' in asset allocation, have formed an unshakable long-term support for gold prices.
Secondly, regarding monetary policy dynamics,Although the market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its January 27-28 meeting, the CME FedWatch tool shows that investors remain firmly betting on at least two rate cuts starting in the second half of 2026, further strengthening support for precious metals valuation.
Finally, the AI wave is becoming a new engine driving this round of non-ferrous metal price increases.Musk recently pointed out in an interview that the bottleneck for AI development has shifted from 'chips' to 'electricity'.
While investors are deploying capital into power infrastructure,they should pay closer attention to the core raw materials for grid upgrades — copper and silver.Whether it’s transformers, ultra-high voltage transmission lines, or data center cooling systems, the demand for copper is enormous; meanwhile, the conductivity performance of photovoltaic modules heavily relies on silver. It can be said that these industrial metals have become the 'hard gold' of the AI era.
Among these, silver's application areas include electrification, solar panels, electric vehicles, and data centers – demand in these areas continues to grow, steadily depleting silver inventories.
Musk expressed concerns on social media about the rising price of silver,saying it's "not a good thing" for industrial development. "This is not good. Silver is an essential material in many industrial processes," Musk wrote on X.His remarks were in response to a post describing the surge in silver prices due to a 'severe global supply shortage.'
Precious metals continue to hit new highs! Institutions predict a gold price target of $6,600.
Looking ahead to the future of gold, Wall Street investment banks generally hold an optimistic attitude.Among them, Jefferies Group is the most aggressive, believing that gold prices could reach $6,600 per ounce this year.
Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price forecast last week to $5,400 per ounce.Higher than the previous forecast of $4,900 per ounce, as diversification into the gold sector by the private sector has proven effective. The report noted that since 2025, the pace of gold price increases has accelerated because central banks have started competing with private investors for the limited gold supply.
In addition,Bank of America recently raised its short-term gold price target to $6,000 per ounce.In a note to clients, Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett wrote: 'While history does not predict the future, looking back at four previous gold bull markets shows prices surged by an average of about 300% in 43 months, suggesting gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by spring 2026.'
At the same time,The 'gold-like' effect of some strategic metals is also beginning to emerge.
According to reports from Yicai, regarding the future performance of metals like copper and silver, a director of a trust wealth management division pointed out that apart from benefiting from a macro loose environment similar to gold, their core driving force stems from profound industrial transformations, particularly the new demand narratives spurred by the artificial intelligence (AI) technology revolution. In her view,Copper's role has surpassed the traditional category of 'industrial metal,'and it is becoming an indispensable key material in AI data centers and chip manufacturing. Its demand is experiencing structural growth, while the supply side lacks elasticity due to mine production disruptions and long capacity expansion cycles. This supply-demand contradiction forms the fundamental driver for price increases.Silver also possesses both financial attributes and industrial application value in high-end manufacturing fields such as photovoltaics and electronics.
Song Xue Tao, Chief Economist at Guojin Securities, stated that the spillover effects of the gold bull market are worth paying attention to. Silver and copper, as core raw materials in the AI industry chain, have room for catch-up gains.Amid global geopolitical competition, the 'gold-like' properties of some strategic metals will also become evident, potentially following gold into an upward trajectory.
In fact, the sequence of commodity price increases is typically not random but follows a rotation pattern that moves from 'financial attributes' to 'production attributes' and finally transmits to 'end-user consumption'.
According to observations by research institutions such as CITIC Securities, historically, since 1970, the logical transmission path of several commodity market cycles has been: precious metals take the lead → industrial metals confirm → energy amplifies → agricultural products spread comprehensively.
As precious metals soar, which Hong Kong and US companies are worth watching?
This article will focus on analyzing gold, silver, and copper-related concept stocks in Hong Kong and US stocks, as follows:
GoldAccording to the latest report from Goldman Sachs, investor confidence in gold remains high, with gold prices having surged 65% by 2025 (currently around $4,510 per ounce), yet bulls remain fervent.42% of people believe gold prices will continue to rise to the $5,000-$6,000 range.and 10% even predict it will exceed $6,000. Only 7% think the gold price will pull back below $4,000.
SilverUBS Group noted in its latest research report thatSilver prices have an upside potential of approximately 25% from current levels,while platinum and palladium have a potential increase of 5-6%,but prices are expected to gradually decline by the end of the year.
The following are silver-related stocks in the Hong Kong and US markets:
US Silver ETFs: $iShares Silver Trust (SLV.US)$ 、 $Abrdn Silver ETF Trust (SIVR.US)$ 、 $Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV.US)$ 、 $ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ.US)$ 、 $Proshares Ultrashort Silver (ZSL.US)$ 、 $Etf Managers Trust Purefunds Ise Jr Silver Small Miners Exp (SILJ.US)$ 、 $Global X Funds Global X Silver Miners Etf (Post Rev Spl (SIL.US)$。
Related funds:$Jupiter Gold & Silver Fund (IE00BYVJR809.MF)$
CopperMajor investment banks have recently raised their copper price forecasts, withCiti boldly predicted that copper prices could reach a high of $15,000 per ton by mid-2026. The core factor supporting this optimistic forecast is the dual drivers of energy transition and AI infrastructure.particularly the explosive structural demand brought by electrification, grid upgrades, and data center construction.
Copper-related stocks in the Hong Kong and US markets include the following:
U.S. copper mining stocks: $Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US)$ 、 $Southern Copper (SCCO.US)$ 、 $Teck Resources (TECK.US)$ 、 $BHP Group Ltd (BHP.US)$ 、 $Rio Tinto (RIO.US)$ 、 $GLENCORE PLC (GLNCY.US)$ 、 $Ero Copper (ERO.US)$ 、 $Hudbay Minerals (HBM.US)$ 、 $Taseko Mines (TGB.US)$ 、 $Ivanhoe Electric (IE.US)$ ；
Hong Kong copper mining stocks: $JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK)$ 、 $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ 、 $CHINAGOLDINTL (02099.HK)$ 、 $CMOC (03993.HK)$ 、 $MMG (01208.HK)$ 、 $CHINFMINING (01258.HK)$ 、 $WANGUO GOLD GP (03939.HK)$ ；
U.S. Copper Mining ETF: $Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX.US)$ 、 $iPath Series B Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (JJC.US)$ 、 $ISHARES COPPER AND METALS MINING ETF (ICOP.US)$ 、 $United Sts Commodity Index Fd Com Unit Repstg U S Copper Index Fd (CPER.US)$ 、 $SPROTT FDS TR COPPER MINERS ETF (COPP.US)$ 。
Summary
Analysts point out that driven by the dual factors of surging global metal demand and tightening supply of key minerals, mining stocks have become a core asset in fund managers' allocation lists, signaling the arrival of a new 'super cycle'.
However, concerns linger behind the prosperity.Song Xuetao, Chief Economist at Guojin Securities, believes that looking ahead to 2026, as long as the market’s pricing logic around 'AI uncertainty' remains unchanged, the lack of order will still be a favorable environment for gold. When the AI bubble and gold form a 'barbell' strategy, gold has already shone as an insurance for AI-related holdings. Silver, which shares 'gold-like' properties while also being tied to AI electricity narratives, demonstrates higher phase-specific elasticity.But once the AI narrative becomes clear, gold's shining moment may come to an end, and at that time, the 'dual-benefit' narrative surrounding silver may also return to rationality.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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