January 22nd [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] - Hang Seng Index, Tencent, Li Auto, Alibaba, Pop Mart, China Unicom

January 20th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart, Zijin Mining, Li Ning, Midea

January 21 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Bilibili, Sunny Optical, Baidu, Shandong Gold, CNOOC

1. Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ : Bullish investors indicate the market will stabilize and rise, with bulls poised to break through highs; holding bull certificates with a recovery price of 26,380 points. Other investors pointed out that there is significant resistance at 26,666 points, suggesting consideration of deploying bear certificates.

Simon: Hello everyone, welcome to today's Hong Kong stock market review. First, let's focus on the performance of the Hang Seng Index. On January 22, the Hang Seng Index closed at 26,629 points. Overall, the change in closing price was limited, and the index continues to show a sideways consolidation pattern around the 26,600-point level. Some investors remain optimistic about the future market outlook, believing that the current level has the potential for further upside, thus continuously purchasing nearby bull certificates; we will analyze specific terms later. Other investors believe that 26,666 points represent a key technical resistance level, so they are deploying bearish products accordingly. In general, both bullish and bearish views coexist, which is normal. Summarizing from technical signals, sell signals currently have a slight advantage, with 8 sell signals versus 6 buy signals, reflecting that short-term market sentiment may lean toward caution.

In terms of support levels, the primary support is currently near 26,000 points. If it breaks below that, it could test 25,700 points. For investors holding nearby bull certificates, special attention should be paid to the risk of forced liquidation. If the bull certificate’s forced liquidation price is above 26,000 points, the risk is relatively higher. It is recommended to choose products with forced liquidation prices below 26,000 points or even below 25,700 points to increase the margin of safety. During periods of market volatility, intraday prices might temporarily touch the forced liquidation price; therefore, selecting products with a reasonable safety buffer is more prudent.

In terms of terms, the current leverage for bull certificates with a redemption price close to 25,700 points can reach approximately 26 times; products with a redemption price near 25,500 points have leverage of about 24 times; slightly further out, around 25,500 points, there are options with approximately 22 times leverage. Investors can comprehensively compare different terms. Although leverage varies slightly, appropriately widening the redemption distance can enhance the product's risk resistance. $UB#HSI RC28106.C (62648.HK)$$UB#HSI RC28116.C (62270.HK)$

2. Li Auto-W (02015.HK) $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ : Investors are paying attention to capital inflows in the auto sector towards the end of the trading session—should the current rebound be viewed as an opportunity to exit or as the start of an upward trend?

Simon: Let’s now focus on individual stocks. First, let’s analyze Li Auto (2015). The stock saw a slight increase on January 22 and has been consolidating at the 60-yuan level recently. Yesterday, the stock hit a low of 61.5 yuan, but rebounded on the 22nd, closing at 65.5 yuan, slightly above the middle Bollinger Band. It is worth noting that the recent performance of the stock has been relatively weak, as it has remained range-bound since mid-October last year and has retreated from its previous high of 87 yuan. On the positive side, the rise on the 22nd was accompanied by strong trading volume, indicating healthy price-volume dynamics.

Investors are generally concerned whether this rally represents a technical rebound or a trend reversal. Based on a summary of technical signals, short-term sentiment is still dominated by sell signals, with eight sell signals against five buy signals, suggesting the possibility of further adjustment. If the stock pulls back, the first support level will be at 62.9 yuan, and if it breaks below that, it may test the 61-yuan mark. $SG#LIAUTRC2609B.C (55810.HK)$$JP#LIAUTRC2608A.C (61326.HK)$

3. Tencent (00700.HK) $TENCENT (00700.HK)$: With the stock price breaking below 600 yuan, is this a good time to take a position? In the warrant market, some investors have increased their holdings of put warrants based on the heavy selling pressure, with an exercise price of 539.9 yuan.

Simon: The second stock we look at is Tencent (700). On January 22, the stock continued its recent downward trend, showing weakness. Though the daily decline was not significant, trading volume notably increased compared to previous sessions, which raises caution about the price drop accompanied by rising volume. Currently, the stock has fallen below the key psychological level of 600 yuan, closing at 597.5 yuan.

Investors are widely debating whether this is a good buying opportunity. In the warrant market, some investors, seeing heavy selling pressure, are continuing to deploy put warrants. From a technical analysis perspective, short-term indicators are slightly positive, with eight buy signals against six sell signals, indicating the potential for a technical rebound. However, if the stock continues to fall, the support level near 582 yuan should be watched, as it is close to the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart. Below that, the next support could be around 565 yuan. Even though technical signals lean bullish, it is still advisable to wait and see if the price stabilizes before making decisions.

In terms of choosing put warrants, there are some short-term products with an exercise price of around 570 yuan and about 5% out-of-the-money, but their expiration dates are concentrated in March this year, resulting in high time decay, and thus they are not recommended. For those who are bearish on the stock, they may consider products expiring in June this year, with an out-of-the-money percentage of about 6.9%. These terms offer leverage of about 8 times with relatively reasonable implied volatility, and are less affected by time decay. $BITENCT@EP2603C.P (21191.HK)$$SG#TENCTRP2812J.P (55685.HK)$$UB#TENCTRP2810E.P (60196.HK)$

4. Alibaba-W (09988.HK): Is there a chance for the stock price to retreat to 155 yuan? Some investors hold put warrants with an exercise price of 149.78 yuan.

Simon: The next stock is Alibaba (9988). The stock’s movement has been relatively stable. After rebounding yesterday, it consolidated narrowly at the 165-yuan level on the 22nd and closed at 164.8 yuan.

Some investors are concerned that the stock price may fall back to around 155 yuan and have expressed bearish views by holding put warrants. The technical signal summary currently shows 'Neutral.' If the stock price pulls back, recent support is located at 156.3 yuan, close to the 155-yuan area investors are watching. For put warrant selection, it is also recommended to avoid products with too near expiration dates; focus can be placed on terms expiring in June or September this year with about 6% out-of-the-money, which have lower time decay and leverage of approximately 4.6 times. $UB#ALIBARC2608S.C (54175.HK)$$BIALIBA@EC2603J.C (13247.HK)$

5. Pop Mart (09992.HK): Investors are paying attention to whether the stock price will stabilize above 205 yuan and look towards 230 yuan. Should they choose call warrants or bull contracts?

Simon: Next, analyzing Pop Mart (09992). The stock performed well on January 22, closing at 206 yuan after a recovery, nearing the upper Bollinger Band at 207.8 yuan.

If investors believe that the stock price stabilizing above 205 yuan indicates potential to test 230 yuan, they need to select products based on their investment horizon. Currently, there are fewer choices for call warrants with an exercise price of 230 yuan, with only one product expiring in August. In contrast, there are more choices for bull contracts, such as those with stop-loss levels at 173 yuan or 160 yuan, offering leverage of approximately 4.9 to 5 times. Short-term support for the stock price is at 190 yuan; if it breaks below that, it could drop to 185 yuan. Bull contracts with stop-loss levels around 170 yuan still have room before reaching that point, making the risk relatively controllable. If investors can accept the associated stop-loss risk, bull contracts may offer advantages in terms of clause selection and leverage. $BI#POMRTRC2606E.C (65842.HK)$$UB#POMRTRC2606D.C (67949.HK)$

6. China Unicom (00762.HK) $CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK)$ : After the stock price fell for 11 consecutive weeks, is there an opportunity for a rebound?

Simon: Finally, let's look at China Unicom (762). Recently, the stock has shown weak performance, repeatedly rebounding to the middle Bollinger Band only to fall again, remaining in a downward channel. Although the stock price slightly recovered on January 22, overall it remains weak.

Investors are focusing on whether there might be a rebound opportunity after the continuous decline. From a technical indicator perspective, the stock price has touched the lower Bollinger Band, and the RSI has risen above 20. The technical signal summary suggests a 'Strong Buy' indication, providing some technical basis for a short-term rebound. However, it is important to note that the stock is still in a long-term downtrend, so counter-trend trading requires careful risk assessment. In terms of support, the primary level to watch is 7.42 yuan; if it breaks below that, it could test 7.21 yuan. Investors considering entering should strictly control position sizes and set stop-loss points.

This is the review and analysis of Hong Kong stocks on January 22. Thank you for watching. We will continue to update market dynamics at the same time tomorrow. If you have any questions, feel free to leave comments for discussion.

Friendly reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis represents only partial conditions and should be used in conjunction with other materials for a comprehensive evaluation; trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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