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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Jan 22 11:14

[Warrant Perspective] Alibaba Technical Review: How to Predict Underlying Stock Volatility to Capture Derivatives Opportunities?

On January 21st, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$
The trend is quite interesting, with the closing price at 163.2 yuan, a single-day increase of 2.19%, finally achieving a small rebound. From a technical perspective, the most notable change is that the stock price successfully stabilized above the MA10 (158.64 yuan), with the RSI indicator reaching 58, showing a relatively strong pattern.
Interestingly, there is a 'disagreement' among indicators: the overall technical indicator signal is 'buy' with a strength of 7, but multiple moving averages show a 'strong sell' signal, and the MACD also flashes a red light simultaneously.
On January 21st, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The trend was quite noteworthy, closing at 163.2 yuan, with a single-day increase of 2.19%, finally achieving a small rebound. From a technical perspective, the most eye-catching change was that the stock price successfully stabilized above the MA10 (158.64 yuan), and the RSI indicator reached 58, showing a rather strong pattern. Interestingly, there was a 'disagreement' among indicators: the overall technical indicator signal was 'buy' with a strength of 7, but multiple moving averages gave a 'strong sell' signal, and MACD also flashed red. On January 21, in the Internet technology sector, $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ led the pack with a 3.29% increase, but the RSI reached 70, entering the overbought zone, and various indicators issued sell signals. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ and $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ showed a different rhythm. The former slightly increased by 0.36% but still struggled below the MA10, while the latter closed almost flat under the MA10's restriction. However, both displayed signs of an oversold rebound, with a high buy intensity in their technical summary signals. As for $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ , the 0.25% increase was relatively modest, with the stock price below the MA10, insufficient MACD momentum, and the overall state being one of 'treading water'. As of 10:52 AM today (the 22nd),Alibaba is currently trading at 164.5 yuan, temporarily up 0...
On January 21, in the Internet technology sector, $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ led the way with a 3.29% increase, but the RSI reached 70, entering the overbought zone, and various indicators are issuing sell signals. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ and $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ follows a different rhythm; the former rose slightly by 0.36% and is still struggling below the MA10, while the latter closed almost flat, constrained by the MA10. However, both show signs of an oversold rebound, with high buy signal intensity in the technical summary. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ has a relatively modest increase of 0.25%, with the stock price below the MA10, insufficient MACD momentum, and overall remains in a 'treading water' state.
As of 10:52 AM today (the 22nd), Alibaba's latest quote is 164.5 yuan, with a temporary increase of 0.8%. The resistance level above is at 169.2 yuan, while the support level around 153.6 yuan is relatively solid. After all, with a 55% probability of an upward movement, it’s not absolutely optimistic, and bulls and bears will likely battle for a few more rounds.
Warrant Bull-Bear Review: Previous products achieved great success
Reviewing Alibaba’s warrant bull-bear products on January 16, they were highly profitable. Among them, $HS#ALIBARP2807B.P (63846.HK)$ A surge of up to 60% within two days, $JP#ALIBARP2812E.P (55693.HK)$ with a 53% increase, and two put warrants ( $JPALIBA@EP2603H.P (21266.HK)$ 、 $UBALIBA@EP2603J.P (21355.HK)$ ) both rising by 26%. Behind this corresponds to a 3.91% drop in Alibaba's underlying stock over the same two days, precisely hitting the rhythm.
On January 21st, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The trend was quite noteworthy, closing at 163.2 yuan, with a single-day increase of 2.19%, finally achieving a small rebound. From a technical perspective, the most eye-catching change was that the stock price successfully stabilized above the MA10 (158.64 yuan), and the RSI indicator reached 58, showing a rather strong pattern. Interestingly, there was a 'disagreement' among indicators: the overall technical indicator signal was 'buy' with a strength of 7, but multiple moving averages gave a 'strong sell' signal, and MACD also flashed red. On January 21, in the Internet technology sector, $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ led the pack with a 3.29% increase, but the RSI reached 70, entering the overbought zone, and various indicators issued sell signals. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ and $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ showed a different rhythm. The former slightly increased by 0.36% but still struggled below the MA10, while the latter closed almost flat under the MA10's restriction. However, both displayed signs of an oversold rebound, with a high buy intensity in their technical summary signals. As for $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ , the 0.25% increase was relatively modest, with the stock price below the MA10, insufficient MACD momentum, and the overall state being one of 'treading water'. As of 10:52 AM today (the 22nd),Alibaba is currently trading at 164.5 yuan, temporarily up 0...
Risk Warning: Derivatives have strong leverage characteristics; they rise quickly but also fall sharply. The outstanding performance of these products earlier was due to following the trend of the underlying stock. Do not blindly chase highs.
Warrant Bull-Bear Selection: Analysis of Two Potential Products
Considering the current trend, we've selected two products with different attributes for your reference:
1. $BPALIBA@EC2603H.C (22666.HK)$ : Leverage of 10.4x, exercise price at 180 yuan. The biggest highlight is the lowest premium, with balanced implied volatility and leverage performance, having no obvious weaknesses, suitable for investors expecting Alibaba to break through the resistance level in the short term.
2. $SG#ALIBARC2607H.C (55819.HK)$ : Leverage of 10.7x, recovery price at 150.5 yuan. The premium is the lowest among similar bull contracts, with excellent actual leverage performance. If Alibaba can hold above the 153.6 yuan support level and continue to rebound, this product’s elasticity is worth noting.
On January 21st, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The trend was quite noteworthy, closing at 163.2 yuan, with a single-day increase of 2.19%, finally achieving a small rebound. From a technical perspective, the most eye-catching change was that the stock price successfully stabilized above the MA10 (158.64 yuan), and the RSI indicator reached 58, showing a rather strong pattern. Interestingly, there was a 'disagreement' among indicators: the overall technical indicator signal was 'buy' with a strength of 7, but multiple moving averages gave a 'strong sell' signal, and MACD also flashed red. On January 21, in the Internet technology sector, $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ led the pack with a 3.29% increase, but the RSI reached 70, entering the overbought zone, and various indicators issued sell signals. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ and $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ showed a different rhythm. The former slightly increased by 0.36% but still struggled below the MA10, while the latter closed almost flat under the MA10's restriction. However, both displayed signs of an oversold rebound, with a high buy intensity in their technical summary signals. As for $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ , the 0.25% increase was relatively modest, with the stock price below the MA10, insufficient MACD momentum, and the overall state being one of 'treading water'. As of 10:52 AM today (the 22nd),Alibaba is currently trading at 164.5 yuan, temporarily up 0...
On January 21st, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The trend was quite noteworthy, closing at 163.2 yuan, with a single-day increase of 2.19%, finally achieving a small rebound. From a technical perspective, the most eye-catching change was that the stock price successfully stabilized above the MA10 (158.64 yuan), and the RSI indicator reached 58, showing a rather strong pattern. Interestingly, there was a 'disagreement' among indicators: the overall technical indicator signal was 'buy' with a strength of 7, but multiple moving averages gave a 'strong sell' signal, and MACD also flashed red. On January 21, in the Internet technology sector, $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ led the pack with a 3.29% increase, but the RSI reached 70, entering the overbought zone, and various indicators issued sell signals. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ and $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ showed a different rhythm. The former slightly increased by 0.36% but still struggled below the MA10, while the latter closed almost flat under the MA10's restriction. However, both displayed signs of an oversold rebound, with a high buy intensity in their technical summary signals. As for $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ , the 0.25% increase was relatively modest, with the stock price below the MA10, insufficient MACD momentum, and the overall state being one of 'treading water'. As of 10:52 AM today (the 22nd),Alibaba is currently trading at 164.5 yuan, temporarily up 0...
Alibaba: Technical indicators shout 'Go,' while the moving average system says 'Retreat.' What’s your take:
A. Follow the indicators: Break through 169 in one go
B. Follow the moving average: Honestly retrace to 153
C. Listen to no one: Continue to stay flat and oscillate
Quickly leave your opinion in the comment section～
For more analysis, be sure to follow Jenny's daily updates on "HK Stock Warrants"!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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