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wrote a column · Jan 14 09:48 ·

Server CPUs: The next big shortage and price hike after storage?

Author | Eric Last week, the market began to focus on the surge in demand for CPUs in the AI inference era, which could lead to a storage-like shortage of server CPUs. Various 'small essays' have been circulating, and this logic has officially fermented this week, becoming the focus of Wall Street. What’s behind yesterday’s big rise in Intel and AMD? Following rumors of memory and storage shortages, investors are rushing to the next narrative:Server CPU shortages. Yesterday, KeyBanc, a major Wall Street bank, released a significant research report predicting that by 2026, $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ server CPU capacity will be nearly sold out,，which will be followed by price increases.KeyBanc raises Intel's target price toUSD 60, and raises AMD's target price to$270. Following this news, both Intel and AMD shares surged over 6%. What’s the logic behind the surge in demand for server CPUs? Intel had previously hinted at supply tightness in certain areas, adding credibility to market rumors. But this time, the market has infused a new dimension into this narrative:Agentic AI. As AI evolves from simple chatbots to 'agents' capable of autonomous action, computational loads have undergone a qualitative shift. Agents require extensive orchestration and scheduling around GPU clusters...
Author | Eric
Last week, the market began focusing on the surge in demand for CPUs driven by the AI inference era, leading to concerns about potential storage-like shortages of server CPUs. Various speculative theories emerged, and this week, that narrative officially gained traction, becoming a focal point on Wall Street.
Author | Eric Last week, the market began to focus on the surge in demand for CPUs in the AI inference era, which could lead to a storage-like shortage of server CPUs. Various 'small essays' have been circulating, and this logic has officially fermented this week, becoming the focus of Wall Street. What’s behind yesterday’s big rise in Intel and AMD? Following rumors of memory and storage shortages, investors are rushing to the next narrative:Server CPU shortages. Yesterday, KeyBanc, a major Wall Street bank, released a significant research report predicting that by 2026, $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ server CPU capacity will be nearly sold out,，which will be followed by price increases.KeyBanc raises Intel's target price toUSD 60, and raises AMD's target price to$270. Following this news, both Intel and AMD shares surged over 6%. What’s the logic behind the surge in demand for server CPUs? Intel had previously hinted at supply tightness in certain areas, adding credibility to market rumors. But this time, the market has infused a new dimension into this narrative:Agentic AI. As AI evolves from simple chatbots to 'agents' capable of autonomous action, computational loads have undergone a qualitative shift. Agents require extensive orchestration and scheduling around GPU clusters...
What's the logic behind Intel and AMD's big gains yesterday?
Following rumors of memory and storage shortages, investors are getting ahead of the next narrative:Server CPU shortage.
Yesterday, Wall Street firm KeyBanc released a major research report predicting that by 2026, $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ Server CPU capacity will be nearly sold out,，Followed by price increases.KeyBanc raised its price target for Intel to$60,and raised its price target for AMD to$270. Affected by this news, both Intel and AMD shares rose more than 6%.
What's behind the surge in server CPU demand?
Intel had previously hinted at supply tightness in specific areas, lending more credibility to market rumors. But this time, the market has injected a new essence into this narrative:Agentic AI.
As AI evolves from simple chatbots to 'agents' capable of autonomous actions, computational loads have undergone a qualitative shift. Agents require significant orchestration, scheduling, preprocessing, and sandbox-style operations around GPU clusters. Simply put, GPUs handle the 'thinking,' while CPUs take care of 'management' and 'organization.' The more complex the agent, the greater the reliance on CPUs.
Author | Eric Last week, the market began to focus on the surge in demand for CPUs in the AI inference era, which could lead to a storage-like shortage of server CPUs. Various 'small essays' have been circulating, and this logic has officially fermented this week, becoming the focus of Wall Street. What’s behind yesterday’s big rise in Intel and AMD? Following rumors of memory and storage shortages, investors are rushing to the next narrative:Server CPU shortages. Yesterday, KeyBanc, a major Wall Street bank, released a significant research report predicting that by 2026, $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ server CPU capacity will be nearly sold out,，which will be followed by price increases.KeyBanc raises Intel's target price toUSD 60, and raises AMD's target price to$270. Following this news, both Intel and AMD shares surged over 6%. What’s the logic behind the surge in demand for server CPUs? Intel had previously hinted at supply tightness in certain areas, adding credibility to market rumors. But this time, the market has infused a new dimension into this narrative:Agentic AI. As AI evolves from simple chatbots to 'agents' capable of autonomous action, computational loads have undergone a qualitative shift. Agents require extensive orchestration and scheduling around GPU clusters...
If server CPU demand surges, who stands to benefit the most?
$Intel (INTC.US)$ Short-term focus on process technology, long-term focus on transformation
Intel’s latest flagship server CPU, Xeon 6 (Granite Rapids), is manufactured on the Intel 3 process. Management noted in the previous quarter's earnings report that Intel server CPUs remain the top choice for AI head nodes, with strong demand for Granite Rapids products.Intel’s Data Center AI business revenue reached $4.1 billion in Q3 2025, down 1% year-over-year, but operating profit was close to $1 billion, up 153% year-over-year. Most of Intel's Data Center AI business revolves around server CPUs.
However, for investors, the real focus of the game isn't the present, but rather viewing the upcoming 18A process as a key lever for revaluing the company's long-term valuation, as the Intel 18A series will underpin at least three generations of client and server products.
Author | Eric Last week, the market began to focus on the surge in demand for CPUs in the AI inference era, which could lead to a storage-like shortage of server CPUs. Various 'small essays' have been circulating, and this logic has officially fermented this week, becoming the focus of Wall Street. What’s behind yesterday’s big rise in Intel and AMD? Following rumors of memory and storage shortages, investors are rushing to the next narrative:Server CPU shortages. Yesterday, KeyBanc, a major Wall Street bank, released a significant research report predicting that by 2026, $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ server CPU capacity will be nearly sold out,，which will be followed by price increases.KeyBanc raises Intel's target price toUSD 60, and raises AMD's target price to$270. Following this news, both Intel and AMD shares surged over 6%. What’s the logic behind the surge in demand for server CPUs? Intel had previously hinted at supply tightness in certain areas, adding credibility to market rumors. But this time, the market has infused a new dimension into this narrative:Agentic AI. As AI evolves from simple chatbots to 'agents' capable of autonomous action, computational loads have undergone a qualitative shift. Agents require extensive orchestration and scheduling around GPU clusters...
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The severely undervalued CPU player
The market is currently significantly underestimating NVIDIA's CPU narrative. Its self-developed Vera CPU is explicitly designed for 'proxy-based AI inference' andis the first to support FP8 precision, sending a key signal to the market that high-performance CPUs are fully capable of handling some near-inference workloads. NVIDIA has quietly entered the arena. The current GB200/GB300 cabinets both use NVIDIA’s self-developed Grace CPU.
Author | Eric Last week, the market began to focus on the surge in demand for CPUs in the AI inference era, which could lead to a storage-like shortage of server CPUs. Various 'small essays' have been circulating, and this logic has officially fermented this week, becoming the focus of Wall Street. What’s behind yesterday’s big rise in Intel and AMD? Following rumors of memory and storage shortages, investors are rushing to the next narrative:Server CPU shortages. Yesterday, KeyBanc, a major Wall Street bank, released a significant research report predicting that by 2026, $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ server CPU capacity will be nearly sold out,，which will be followed by price increases.KeyBanc raises Intel's target price toUSD 60, and raises AMD's target price to$270. Following this news, both Intel and AMD shares surged over 6%. What’s the logic behind the surge in demand for server CPUs? Intel had previously hinted at supply tightness in certain areas, adding credibility to market rumors. But this time, the market has infused a new dimension into this narrative:Agentic AI. As AI evolves from simple chatbots to 'agents' capable of autonomous action, computational loads have undergone a qualitative shift. Agents require extensive orchestration and scheduling around GPU clusters...
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ : Market share steadily rising
With the strong performance of its high-end EPYC product portfolio, AMD is steadily eroding Intel’s market share. According to Mercury Research, its server CPU shipment share in Q3 2025 has climbed to27.8%, and despite not disclosing specific revenue proportions, it has once again set a new historical high for server revenue thanks to a better product mix. Based on estimates,AMD’s data center CPU revenue for Q3 2025 is approximately around $2 billion.。
Author | Eric Last week, the market began to focus on the surge in demand for CPUs in the AI inference era, which could lead to a storage-like shortage of server CPUs. Various 'small essays' have been circulating, and this logic has officially fermented this week, becoming the focus of Wall Street. What’s behind yesterday’s big rise in Intel and AMD? Following rumors of memory and storage shortages, investors are rushing to the next narrative:Server CPU shortages. Yesterday, KeyBanc, a major Wall Street bank, released a significant research report predicting that by 2026, $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ server CPU capacity will be nearly sold out,，which will be followed by price increases.KeyBanc raises Intel's target price toUSD 60, and raises AMD's target price to$270. Following this news, both Intel and AMD shares surged over 6%. What’s the logic behind the surge in demand for server CPUs? Intel had previously hinted at supply tightness in certain areas, adding credibility to market rumors. But this time, the market has infused a new dimension into this narrative:Agentic AI. As AI evolves from simple chatbots to 'agents' capable of autonomous action, computational loads have undergone a qualitative shift. Agents require extensive orchestration and scheduling around GPU clusters...
$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$ : Continuously eating into the x86 market
As the most powerful alternative to the x86 architecture, Arm’s presence makes any story about extreme x86 shortages hard to sustain in the long term, given its impressive penetration rate in the infrastructure space. It is predicted that by 2025, nearly 50% of compute power shipped to top hyperscale companies will be based on Arm, and over half of AWS’s newly added compute power in the past two years has also been powered by Arm CPUs.In recent years, Arm-based server CPUs have increased their share in the cloud computing market from 9% to 20%.。
Author | Eric Last week, the market began to focus on the surge in demand for CPUs in the AI inference era, which could lead to a storage-like shortage of server CPUs. Various 'small essays' have been circulating, and this logic has officially fermented this week, becoming the focus of Wall Street. What’s behind yesterday’s big rise in Intel and AMD? Following rumors of memory and storage shortages, investors are rushing to the next narrative:Server CPU shortages. Yesterday, KeyBanc, a major Wall Street bank, released a significant research report predicting that by 2026, $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ server CPU capacity will be nearly sold out,，which will be followed by price increases.KeyBanc raises Intel's target price toUSD 60, and raises AMD's target price to$270. Following this news, both Intel and AMD shares surged over 6%. What’s the logic behind the surge in demand for server CPUs? Intel had previously hinted at supply tightness in certain areas, adding credibility to market rumors. But this time, the market has infused a new dimension into this narrative:Agentic AI. As AI evolves from simple chatbots to 'agents' capable of autonomous action, computational loads have undergone a qualitative shift. Agents require extensive orchestration and scheduling around GPU clusters...
$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$ : A New Narrative for Server CPUs
Qualcomm is shedding its label as merely a 'PC/phone CPU' provider and plans to re-enter the data center CPU market by launching custom products that can closely integrate with NVIDIA’s platform (including the NVLink Fusion-like ecosystem). This offers investors a high-beta new target for trading the 'CPU Renaissance' narrative, beyond just laptops.
Author | Eric Last week, the market began to focus on the surge in demand for CPUs in the AI inference era, which could lead to a storage-like shortage of server CPUs. Various 'small essays' have been circulating, and this logic has officially fermented this week, becoming the focus of Wall Street. What’s behind yesterday’s big rise in Intel and AMD? Following rumors of memory and storage shortages, investors are rushing to the next narrative:Server CPU shortages. Yesterday, KeyBanc, a major Wall Street bank, released a significant research report predicting that by 2026, $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ server CPU capacity will be nearly sold out,，which will be followed by price increases.KeyBanc raises Intel's target price toUSD 60, and raises AMD's target price to$270. Following this news, both Intel and AMD shares surged over 6%. What’s the logic behind the surge in demand for server CPUs? Intel had previously hinted at supply tightness in certain areas, adding credibility to market rumors. But this time, the market has infused a new dimension into this narrative:Agentic AI. As AI evolves from simple chatbots to 'agents' capable of autonomous action, computational loads have undergone a qualitative shift. Agents require extensive orchestration and scheduling around GPU clusters...
Where is the biggest expectation gap?
The theme of 'CPU Shortage + Agent-based AI' has become tradable because it requires long lead times and price increases for validation, giving the market a window for speculation. However, the biggest cognitive dissonance in the current market may be:Most people have overlooked the fact that, through large-scale shipments over the past two years, NVIDIA's self-developed server CPUs have quietly become a major player in the server CPU market.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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