[Warrant Insights] Hang Seng Index Warrant Review: Behind the 41% Surge, Two Selected Targets to Capture Opportunities

January 12 $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,608.48 points, with a daily increase of 1.44%. The trading volume reached 306.223 billion yuan. The RSI indicator stands at 57. Although the overall technical indicators signal 'sell,' multiple oscillation indicators show buy signals, including the Stochastic Oscillator, Rate of Change (ROC), and MACD, which all indicate buying opportunities. Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands also give buy signals, with a signal strength of 8, showing a divergence between bulls and bears but stronger short-term momentum.

From a technical perspective, the current support levels for the Hang Seng Index are 25,995 points (Support 1) and 25,668 points (Support 2). Resistance levels are at 26,863 points (Resistance 1) and 27,419 points (Resistance 2). The index faces slight pressure from Resistance 1 in the short term, and whether it can break through will depend on subsequent trading volumes.

In terms of technology stocks， $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 623.00 yuan, with multiple technical indicators showing 'buy' ratings, though the overall strength remains 'neutral.' The stock price is stable above several key moving averages. $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Closed at 154.30 yuan, with technical patterns indicating a 'strong sell' signal. Additionally, the RSI is in an overbought state, suggesting short-term downward pressure. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Closed at 105.00 yuan, with significant daily gains, but the overall technical summary indicates 'sell,' so profit-taking risks should be monitored. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Closed at 38.74 yuan, with technical signals showing 'strong buy,' and momentum indicators reflecting minor capital inflows.

In terms of financial stocks， $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ Closed at 124.10 yuan, with technical indicators summarizing to 'sell,' and multiple moving averages forming a bearish alignment. $CCB (00939.HK)$ Closed at HKD 7.72, technical signal is 'Buy', but the strength is relatively weak, with trading volume increasing to HKD 1.729 billion; $AIA (01299.HK)$ Closed at HKD 83.70, technical pattern indicates 'Strong Sell', with RSI approaching the overbought zone; $PING AN (02318.HK)$ Closed at HKD 68.50, technical indicators summarize as 'Sell', and the moving average system is under pressure;

Consumer and other blue chips， $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ Closed at HKD 95.70, technical signal is 'Strong Buy', with solid moving average support; $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ Closed at HKD 16.92, technical indicators show 'Buy', but short-term moving averages are slightly pressured; $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ Closed at HKD 81.15, technical pattern is 'Strong Buy', with RSI in oversold territory, providing strong rebound potential;

Overall observation shows that blue-chip performance was mixed on January 12, 2026. Technology stocks attracted significant capital attention, while financial stocks generally showed weak technical patterns. Investors should focus on the strength of technical indicator signals and changes in trading volume to formulate short-term strategies.

Reviewing recent fluctuations in the Hang Seng Index (HSI), the reaction of related warrants to upward movements has been extremely strong. For instance, during the HSI fluctuation on January 8, 2026, following the index's rise, associated warrants saw substantial increases within two days, with the most notable performer being $BI#HSI RC2808T.C (61236.HK)$ , which surged by up to 41% two days later, $UB#HSI RC28118.C (61432.HK)$ also saw a 39% increase, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose only 1.76% during the same period; as for call warrants, $BI-HSI @EC2603A.C (21318.HK)$ rose 28% in two days, $JP-HSI @EC2603A.C (21186.HK)$ rose 24%, significantly outperforming the underlying stocks, fully demonstrating the leverage amplification effect of CBBCs.

In fact, the logic behind this kind of 'moderate rise in underlying stocks, large rise in CBBCs' is not complicated. Simply put, the price movements of call warrants and bull contracts are positively correlated with the HSI. When the HSI rises, the intrinsic value of these CBBCs increases accordingly. Coupled with the magnifying effect of leverage, their gains can be much larger than those of the underlying stocks. The key factors affecting the magnitude of CBBC gains mainly include leverage ratio, implied volatility, and premium rate. Typically, CBBCs with higher leverage, more stable implied volatility, and lower premiums perform better when the underlying stock experiences significant movements. For example, the BOC bull contract (61236) reviewed this time achieved a substantial 41% surge due to its high actual leverage, even as the HSI experienced only a slight rise.

Based on the current trend and technical situation of the HSI, we have carefully selected two of the most cost-effective HSI-related CBBCs for your reference: the first one is $BI-HSI @EC2605B.C (23128.HK)$ , which has a leverage as high as 12.7 times and the lowest implied volatility, meaning it can maximize leverage benefits when the HSI rises while keeping the purchase cost relatively low;

the second one is $BI-HSI @EP2603A.P (20720.HK)$ , with the lowest premium, and both implied volatility and leverage are quite ideal, making it suitable for investors who are concerned about the HSI failing to break through resistance levels and experiencing a pullback.

Recommendation:Fellow investors who already hold HSI call warrants or bull contracts can set a profit-taking point at 15%-20% above the current price to avoid profit erosion; those who haven't entered yet are advised against chasing recently surged CBBCs, such as some bull contracts that have risen over 30% in a short time, as entering now poses higher risks. Instead, choosing the aforementioned low-premium selections would be wiser. The reason is that if the HSI experiences a pullback, highly surged CBBCs will retreat faster, whereas targets with low premiums and stable implied volatility have stronger risk tolerance and better cost-effectiveness.

Risk Warning:Intraday fluctuations may be due to short-term capital speculation. If the HSI lacks sustained volume support, CBBCs could retreat at any time. It's important to note that CBBCs are extremely high-risk investment products with volatile prices. Before entering the market, make sure to check the real-time premium rate and trading volume of the CBBCs to avoid being unable to buy or sell promptly due to insufficient liquidity.

Are you following the Hang Seng Index's unusual price movements? For these two selected CBBCs, do you prefer call warrants or put warrants? Or do you think the Hang Seng Index will be able to break through the resistance level at 26,863 points smoothly?Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment section! Want more analysis? Don’t forget to follow ‘HK Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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