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Hot Investment Topic: Trump's big win in the election! How to view the US stocks, bitcoin, USD, and US bonds?

In the early morning of November 6th local time in the USA, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election. The 'Trump Trade' swept through major asset classes, with the S&P 500 index futures rising by 2%, the US dollar and US bond yields increasing, and Bitcoin once breaking through $75,000 to a historical new high! Trump's policy positions distinctly reflect a conservative stance, emphasizing 'America First,' implementing trade protectionism, strict immigration restrictions, tax cuts, relaxed industry regulations, advocating for the vigorous development of traditional energy, and considering climate change as a 'hoax.' With Trump back in the White House, industries such as infrastructure, traditional energy, finance, and pharmaceuticals may benefit, but his policies could also lead to a rise in inflation, dragging down market performance. US stocks Trump promised to cut corporate taxes and reduce regulations, potentially appointing a dovish Federal Reserve Chairman. His victoryExpected to benefit the financial industry, including banks and asset management companies, his victory will also help boost the US stock market in the short term. From historical records, the presidential election has a certain impact on the monthly performance of the US stock market. As the election day approaches, market volatility typically increases, leading to weaker stock market performance. After the election results are announced, market uncertainty diminishes, and the volatility gradually decreases, providing an opportunity for a rebound in the US stock market. 根據美國銀行的統計，美股通常在大選前的9-10月下跌，隨後在大選後的11-12月反彈。實際上，許多分析師...
In the early morning of November 6th local time in the USA, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election. The 'Trump Trade' swept through major asset classes, with the S&P 500 index futures rising by 2%, the US dollar and US bond yields increasing, and Bitcoin once breaking through $75,000 to a historical new high!
Trump's policy positions distinctly reflect a conservative stance, emphasizing 'America First,' implementing trade protectionism, strict immigration restrictions, tax cuts, relaxed industry regulations, advocating for the vigorous development of traditional energy, and considering climate change as a 'hoax.'
With Trump back in the White House, industries such as infrastructure, traditional energy, finance, and pharmaceuticals may benefit, but his policies could also lead to a rise in inflation, dragging down market performance.
US stocks
Trump promised to cut corporate taxes and reduce regulations, potentially appointing a dovish Federal Reserve Chairman. His victoryExpected to benefit the financial industry, including banks and asset management companies, his victory will also help boost the US stock market in the short term.
From historical records, the presidential election has a certain impact on the monthly performance of the US stock market. As the election day approaches, market volatility typically increases, leading to weaker stock market performance. After the election results are announced, market uncertainty diminishes, and the volatility gradually decreases, providing an opportunity for a rebound in the US stock market.
According to statistics from Bank of America, US stocks usually decline in October-November before the election, then rebound in December after the election. In fact, many analysts have long predicted that regardless of who wins the presidential election, the upward trend of the US stock market will continue until the end of 2024. In the week before the vote, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.4%, which could be a signal of the stock market looking up in the following month. According to J.P. Morgan's analysis, if the S&P 500 index shows weakness before election day, it is expected to perform well after election day, with an average increase of about 4% by the end of the year.
If bullish on the US stocks, investing in the S&P 500 index can effectively diversify individual stock and industry risks, and in the long run, it is also a tool to outperform inflation. Tracking the S&P 500 index, large ETFs with good liquidity and low fees include $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO.US)$ 、 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ 、 $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV.US)$ etc.
In the early morning of November 6th local time in the USA, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election. The 'Trump Trade' swept through major asset classes, with the S&P 500 index futures rising by 2%, the US dollar and US bond yields increasing, and Bitcoin once breaking through $75,000 to a historical new high! Trump's policy positions distinctly reflect a conservative stance, emphasizing 'America First,' implementing trade protectionism, strict immigration restrictions, tax cuts, relaxed industry regulations, advocating for the vigorous development of traditional energy, and considering climate change as a 'hoax.' With Trump back in the White House, industries such as infrastructure, traditional energy, finance, and pharmaceuticals may benefit, but his policies could also lead to a rise in inflation, dragging down market performance. US stocks Trump promised to cut corporate taxes and reduce regulations, potentially appointing a dovish Federal Reserve Chairman. His victoryExpected to benefit the financial industry, including banks and asset management companies, his victory will also help boost the US stock market in the short term. From historical records, the presidential election has a certain impact on the monthly performance of the US stock market. As the election day approaches, market volatility typically increases, leading to weaker stock market performance. After the election results are announced, market uncertainty diminishes, and the volatility gradually decreases, providing an opportunity for a rebound in the US stock market. 根據美國銀行的統計，美股通常在大選前的9-10月下跌，隨後在大選後的11-12月反彈。實際上，許多分析師...
bitcoin
Undoubtedly, Donald Trump is a supporter of cryptos, and the surge of Bitcoin is considered one of the key directions of the "Trump trade". Trump vowed that if he returns to the White House, he will make the USA the global capital of cryptos, establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and appoint regulators who are passionate about digital assets, indicating he is the most crypto-friendly candidate in the industry.
Impacted by the election, the price of Bitcoin once surged over $75,000 on the election day, up more than 8%, hitting a historic high.
In the US stock market, concept stocks related to cryptos mainly include three companies: the world's largest crypto trading platform $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ The world's largest mining company. $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ And one of the companies with the most Bitcoin holdings on the stock market. $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ 。
In addition, investors can also track the price trends of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin through cryptocurrency ETFs, which can be classified into cryptocurrency spot ETFs, cryptocurrency futures ETFs, and ETFs of cryptocurrency-related stocks.
In the early morning of November 6th local time in the USA, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election. The 'Trump Trade' swept through major asset classes, with the S&P 500 index futures rising by 2%, the US dollar and US bond yields increasing, and Bitcoin once breaking through $75,000 to a historical new high! Trump's policy positions distinctly reflect a conservative stance, emphasizing 'America First,' implementing trade protectionism, strict immigration restrictions, tax cuts, relaxed industry regulations, advocating for the vigorous development of traditional energy, and considering climate change as a 'hoax.' With Trump back in the White House, industries such as infrastructure, traditional energy, finance, and pharmaceuticals may benefit, but his policies could also lead to a rise in inflation, dragging down market performance. US stocks Trump promised to cut corporate taxes and reduce regulations, potentially appointing a dovish Federal Reserve Chairman. His victoryExpected to benefit the financial industry, including banks and asset management companies, his victory will also help boost the US stock market in the short term. From historical records, the presidential election has a certain impact on the monthly performance of the US stock market. As the election day approaches, market volatility typically increases, leading to weaker stock market performance. After the election results are announced, market uncertainty diminishes, and the volatility gradually decreases, providing an opportunity for a rebound in the US stock market. 根據美國銀行的統計，美股通常在大選前的9-10月下跌，隨後在大選後的11-12月反彈。實際上，許多分析師...
The 'Donald Trump Concept Stocks.'
'Donald Trump Concept Stocks' are one of the market's themes this year, with the opportunity for related targets to undergo a new round of speculation following Trump's election.
Among them, $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ Regarded as the most authentic 'Donald Trump Concept Stock.' DJT is the parent company of the well-known 'Truth Social,' with Trump holding nearly 60% of the shares. Whenever the probability of Trump's victory increases, DJT tends to rise strongly. Since the end of September, DJT has rebounded strongly, with the stock price soaring from less than $12 to nearly $55, a peak increase of over 360%.
Among the "Big Seven" in the US stocks, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ is a potential beneficiary of the "Donald Trump trade". Tesla's CEO Musk is one of Trump's biggest supporters, donating nearly $75 million in campaign funds. Trump has also promised that if elected, he will appoint Musk as the Chairman of the Government Efficiency Commission. With the election leaning towards Trump, Tesla's stock price soared 12% in after-hours trading!
Furthermore, stocks closely related to Trump include $Rumble (RUM.US)$ And $Phunware (PHUN.US)$ . Rumble, similar in nature to DJT, is a social platform for conservatives and provides video hosting and streaming services for DJT. In addition, Trump's running mate and Vice President, Pence, is also a shareholder of Rumble. PHUN provided mobile app development and data analysis services for Trump's 2020 presidential campaign.
Based on Trump's governing philosophy, here are the sectors and symbols that benefit from the "Donald Trump trade" policy for investors:
In the early morning of November 6th local time in the USA, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election. The 'Trump Trade' swept through major asset classes, with the S&P 500 index futures rising by 2%, the US dollar and US bond yields increasing, and Bitcoin once breaking through $75,000 to a historical new high! Trump's policy positions distinctly reflect a conservative stance, emphasizing 'America First,' implementing trade protectionism, strict immigration restrictions, tax cuts, relaxed industry regulations, advocating for the vigorous development of traditional energy, and considering climate change as a 'hoax.' With Trump back in the White House, industries such as infrastructure, traditional energy, finance, and pharmaceuticals may benefit, but his policies could also lead to a rise in inflation, dragging down market performance. US stocks Trump promised to cut corporate taxes and reduce regulations, potentially appointing a dovish Federal Reserve Chairman. His victoryExpected to benefit the financial industry, including banks and asset management companies, his victory will also help boost the US stock market in the short term. From historical records, the presidential election has a certain impact on the monthly performance of the US stock market. As the election day approaches, market volatility typically increases, leading to weaker stock market performance. After the election results are announced, market uncertainty diminishes, and the volatility gradually decreases, providing an opportunity for a rebound in the US stock market. 根據美國銀行的統計，美股通常在大選前的9-10月下跌，隨後在大選後的11-12月反彈。實際上，許多分析師...
USD and US bonds
Trump's victory,It may mean the market is facing a 'strong dollar storm'.Because forex traders expect Trump to implement protectionist trade policies, including raising import tariffs to support US manufacturing. In addition, Trump's repeatedly emphasized tax reduction policy will stimulate inflation, reduce the Fed's room for rate cuts, thereby pushing up the dollar and US bond yields.
Morgan Stanley expects that after the Republican victory, the dollar will strengthen, and the exchange rates of the dollar against the euro, yuan, and other currencies possibly affected by tariffs will also rise.
Bond traders believe that the overwhelming Republican victory poses a 'clear threat' to bond buyers. In the case of Republican and Congressional unity, Trump will push forward tax and tariff plans, expand the fiscal deficit, and restart an era of inflation. This will raise the 10-year US bond yields, and bond prices may further decline.
In the US bond ETF, the larger scale $Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND.US)$ 、 $iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG.US)$ and $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ have all fallen to a three-month low, while the US dollar index has again broken through 105 after four months.
Alright, futubull, I'll stop here for today. What do you think about this result and the future investment direction? Feel free to leave a comment to share~
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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