Haiyin Wealth Research Institute|We attach great importance to opportunities for science and innovation!

1.1 PPI reached a new high, and inflationary pressure spread.PPI reached 9% in May, a record high since 2009. CPI was 1.3% in May, mainly due to a significant decline in pig prices. There are two core conclusions. One is that the commodity cycle represented by PPI is ongoing, and there will be some decline in the short term.But it is likely to hit a record high in the second half of the year; Second, inflationary pressure will spread, rising raw material prices will spread, and urban service prices will rise to counter inflationary pressure.

1.2 Marginal improvement in financial data.The decline in social finance and credit growth has become the basic consensus of the market. We are mainly discussing marginal changes in data. Credit of 1.5 trillion yuan was added in May, an increase of 20 billion yuan over the same period last year.Higher than market expectations of 150 billion. M2 showed a slight increase of 0.2% to 8.3%.Judging from the credit growth rate, the 13.2% growth rate in May '20 was the top of this round. Since then, the credit growth rate has slowly declined. This put some pressure on the overall market, but it did not affect structural opportunities at all.

1.3 As the centennial birthday approaches, it is expected that favorable regional and industrial policies will be introduced one after another. Last week's key policies were“Zhejiang Builds a Demonstration Zone for Common Prosperity”The publication of opinions reflects the great wisdom of governing ideas in many aspects, includingFocusing on fairness, technological innovation, carbon neutrality, etc. are all good for the capital market in the medium to long term.

1.4 RMB Exchange Rate:We are optimistic about the upward trend in the medium term, and a short-term depreciation correction has already been established.Judging from short-term exchange rate trends, it is not friendly to the stock market, with the exception of discussions on structural opportunities.

1.5 China's macroeconomic data for May was generally stable.

(Data compilation: Haiyin Research Institute)

2.1 Our conclusion is that it won't. In the context of the big power game, prices are only realistic; at most, they are low-level targets, not to mention that rising prices (mostly upstream) are a major benefit for a major commodity exporter like the US.

2.2 The US CPI reached 5% in May.It hit a new high since August 2008.It can be expected that without the pig cycle, China's CPI will also rise.

2.3 The 10-year US Treasury yield fell below 1.5%, and we have entered a period of observation to see if interest rates have bottomed out.Although inflation has risen, long-term interest rates have declined. The main reason is that from March 3 to June 9, the US government reduced fiscal deposits from 1.44 trillion US dollars to 673.5 billion US dollars. We have always emphasized that the current round of US policy isEpic Water Discharge+Epic PayoutA combination of. Since 10-year US bonds hit a high of 1.74% on March 19, they began to decline until they fell below 1.5% again. This is also the financial reason for this wave of rebound.

2.4 Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting, policy remains on holdThere was no discussion on monetary policy normalization matters,But the description is hawkish, revealing the attitude of future monetary tightening.

3.1 Pay attention to investment opportunities in the second half of the year, cherish the current allocation window, and exceed equity assets.

3.2 Hongmeng is a super theme. It is a major theme based on the logic of optimism about big opportunities in science and innovation.This is originally a technology cycle; Hongmeng is just an opportunity. Hongmeng has opened a new era of the Internet of Things, aiming to create interconnection, 1+8+N full-scene terminal device connectivity. The theme of Hongmeng can be operated over and over again. Some arrangements for short-term supervision are beneficial for the market to go further.

3.3 Pay attention to the structural direction of the market. Growth category: (1) Hard technology represented by science and technology innovation boards, representing key industries in the direction of the industry, such asSmart cars, Hongmeng industrial chain; (2) Investment opportunities under demographic logic, including medicine, maternal and child products, pets, etc.; (3) replacement of domestic brands, including semiconductors, leisure and sports, agricultural safety, etc.

3.4 We stand at a time of alternation between old and new. We need to look higher and farther when looking at problems in order to find the main line of development from disturbing information and not be shaken by momentary twists and turns. As previously suggested, “Pay attention to the risk of market pullback in the short term.” Liquor, medicine, etc. are also recovering as expected. This kind of partial adjustment will still occur. However, if you look at it from a longer perspective,We are standing in an environment where old and new are alternating and emerging, and if we lay out in the right direction and on the track, it will pay off well in the long run. A good example is that a number of companies such as the Ningde Era have reached new record highs.

4.1 The big cycle of inflation has arrived, and there are many opportunities in the commodity sector.It's definitely true that the CTA is supersized.It is emphasized once again that the inflation cycle is global.

4.2 Judging the final outcome of this round of the market,The high point of this round of inflation will come later than the high point in the stock market. However, neither of these two highs will come anytime soon.

4.3 Inflation is global. The PPI of China and the US are linked, but the impact of inflation on China and the US is not the same, and the policy trends of the two countries will naturally be different. In addition to being the world's largest consumer, the US is also the world's largest exporter of crude oil and agricultural products, and commodity price increases are generally beneficial; China is the largest importer of crude oil and agricultural products and the world's second-largest consumer. Internal circulation is being strengthened, and commodity price increases are generally unfavorable.The Federal Reserve is more tolerant of inflation, and the People's Bank of China is relatively intolerant of inflationIt is a rational choice between the two countries based on fundamentals.

5.1 Long-term interest rates (such as 10-year treasury bond yields) are mainly volatile, and trading opportunities are limited. Considering that equity assets are assets that are likely to obtain large returns, it is recommendedLow-allotment bond-type assets。

5.2 Fixed income assets are recommended as standard.

6.1 The industry's boom continues to rise.The return on investment in the private equity industry has continued to rise over the past year, but fundraising and investment are still relatively sluggish due to the pandemic. In 2021, it is expected that as the epidemic is gradually brought under control, industry fund-raising and investment will gradually improve, and the boom will continue to rise.

6.2 Industry investment mainly focuses on popular investment fields such as healthcare, IT informatization, and the InternetOverall capital was concentrated in leading high-quality private equity projects.

6.3 With the implementation of the A-share registration system, the share of corporate withdrawal amounts and investment amounts continues to rise, and the exit problem has improved dramatically. Looking forward to the future, the private equity industry will also usher in rapid growth in fund-raising and investment, and the industry is in a stage of continuous healthy development.

6.4 A total of 62 Chinese companies achieved IPOs globally in April 2021, up 8.77% from the previous month. The biggest fund-raising project of the April IPO was Tucson Future, a company focused on artificial intelligence and autonomous driving. IT and the Internet are still traditional investment hotspots. Investment in the blockchain sector became popular in April, and popular tracks focused on cryptocurrency trading platforms, blockchain applications, DeFi, etc.

Source: Haiyin Research Institute

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