AMD, Arm, and Qualcomm release earnings simultaneously; is a rebound in chip stocks on the horizon?
英特尔2026Q3业绩直播
Key Takeaways (AI-Generated)
Financial Performance
- Q3 revenue hit $16.5B, beating guidance; non-GAAP EPS was $0.52 vs. $0.38 expected.
- DCAI revenue rose 17% sequentially to $7.3B, marking strongest growth in 15 years.
- CCPG revenue fell 9% sequentially to $8.1B due to memory shortages and IT budget constraints.
- Intel Foundry revenue grew 16% to $6.7B; operating loss improved by $236M to $1.9B.
Business Highlights
- Granite Rapids ramping fast on Intel 3; Clearwater Forest shipping for revenue on Intel 18A.
- Panther Lake successfully ramped on Intel 18A; Wildcat Lake demand exceeds supply.
- Announced Oracle Cloud Infrastructure agreement for AI CPU deployment; unveiled Crescent Island GPU.
- Acquired Classiq for quantum software; Israel factory accident impacts Q4 server shipments.
Financial Guidance
- Q4 revenue guided to $15B-$16B; non-GAAP gross margin at 38%; EPS at $0.25.
- Fab 28 incident reduces Q4 revenue by ~$300M and gross margin by 200 bps.
- DCAI revenue expected to grow mid-teens % sequentially; CCPG to decline >20% sequentially.
- 2026 CapEx remains $20B; 2027 CapEx to increase significantly; full-year OpEx ~$16.3B.
Opportunities
- Server CPU TAM projected to quintuple from $40B to >$200B over five years via agentic workloads.
- Purpose-built silicon segment tripled recently and is expected to triple again in coming years.
- Focus on energy-efficient CPUs for AI; development of Intel 18AP/14A nodes and advanced packaging.
- Completed $23B equity offering to fund capital expenditures and capture market growth opportunities.
Risks
- Industry-wide shortage of advanced organic substrates and memory constrains supply and raises costs.
- Extended shutdown at Israel factory due to accident impacts Q4 10-nanometer server shipments.
- Weak PC market driven by higher memory prices and limited IT budgets; 2026 unit TAM down 12%.
- Fierce competition from fabless companies meeting AI demand; AMD guiding to 70% server revenue growth.
Full Transcript (AI-Generated)
Operator
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Intel Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press *11 on your telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to move yourself from the queue, simply press *11 again. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. John Pitzer, Corporate Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Sir.
John Pitzer
Thank you, Jonathan, and good afternoon to everyone joining us today. By now, you should have received a copy of the Q3 earnings release and presentation. Both are available on our Investor Relations website, intc.com. For those joining us online today, the presentation is also available in our webcast window. I'm joined today by our CEO, Lipu Tan, and our CFO, Dave Zinsner. Lipu will open with comments on third quarter results and progress on our strategic priorities. Dave will then discuss overall financial results including fourth quarter guidance before we transition to answer your questions. Before we begin, please note that today's presentation does contain forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it. As such, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties. It also contains references to non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information to our investors. Our earnings release, most recent annual report on Form 10-K, and other filings with the SEC provide more information on specific risk factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from our expectations. They also provide additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures including reconciliation where appropriate to our corresponding GAAP financial measures. With that, let me turn it over to Lipu.
Lipu Tan
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. The demand environment in Q3 was more balanced than previous quarters. Strong momentum in DCAI drove upside and enabled the strongest revenue growth for the segment in 15 years. This was partially offset by weakness in CCPG, driven by the industry-wide impacts from higher memory prices and limited IT budgets. The industry continues to navigate one of the most significant supply shortages in history, driven by the unprecedented demand for super intelligence. Against this backdrop, I'm pleased by the progress we made growing our server supply in Q3. I'm mindful about the ongoing challenges we face in future quarters to keep pace with the server demand. The successful completion of our equity offering in August provided us with the necessary financial resources to capture the growth ahead. I'm very pleased to add new sovereign funds and long-term growth investors in addition to our existing shareholders. We are deploying this capital quickly and prudently. We expect CapEx and purchase commitments for key components to increase significantly over the next several quarters. I want to thank our substrate, memory, foundry, and equipment suppliers for their strong partnership and collaborations as we work together to expand supply and support growing demands.
Lipu Tan
Turning to business units. First, DCAI. Within our server business, we are making steady progress on our road map. Granite Rapids on Intel 3 has become one of the fastest ramping server products. Clearwater Forest, our first Intel 18A server product, is shipping for revenue, and demand for 2027 is significant, especially in CPU-dense generative AI scale infrastructure. Diamond Rapids, our first Intel 18AP server product, is sampling and on track to ramp in 2027. With strong interest for inference and agentic workloads, we were pleased to recently announce an agreement with Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to deploy our latest generation CPUs to support their AI build-out. I also want to acknowledge headwinds limiting our progress to meet this extremely high AI-driven demand. First, Intel 3 yield and cycle time continue to improve, but I am demanding significant execution from the team. Second, even as our Intel 3 wafer output ramps quickly, an industry-wide shortage of advanced organic substrates for our EMIB packaging is also impacting our ability to scale output. Finally, early this month, an unfortunate and tragic accident led to an extended shutdown in our Israel factory. While the teams have worked quickly to address the situation, it will impact our Q4 10-nanometer server shipments.
Lipu Tan
Purpose-built silicon remains our fastest-growing business segment, tripling over the last three years and poised to triple again over the next few years. We see further growth opportunity with both existing and new potential customers, including AI labs, and expanding our IP portfolio to meet the needs of a wider array of customers. Lastly, we recently unveiled our Crescent Island inference-optimized GPU. Early feedback is encouraging; performance is tracking well. This is a new market for us and it will take time to scale, but customer engagements are progressing towards firm commitments. Turning to our client business, in recent weeks, our customers began signaling PC slowdown based on the memory prices and availability. Year-to-date, system endpoint prices have increased significantly, placing additional pressure on already limited IT budgets. The pace of the PC correction has accelerated over the last two months as our OEM partners are aggressively managing inventory to match the softer sell-through. We expect the current environment to persist until memory availability and prices begin to normalize. While the next few quarters will be challenging for the PC market, our R&D maps continue to strengthen and our long-term outlook remains positive. We have successfully ramped Panther Lake on Intel 18A and demand for Wildcat Lake is outstripping supply. Nova Lake, our first Intel 18AP client product, is tracking ahead of schedule with design wins expected to be twice those of Panther Lake at launch. We look forward to sharing more at CES in January as the market normalizes. We expect this portfolio drives meaningful share gains.
Lipu Tan
Intel Foundry execution continued to improve consistently during the quarter. Intel 3 and Intel 18A yields both increased again, with Intel 18A improving at the double-digit rate. Wafer output on both nodes exceeded expectation. Intel 18AP remains on track for launch by year-end across our internal product portfolio, and external customer engagement continues to build. We are engaged with a couple of highly strategic customers, and I'm increasingly confident that our Intel 18AP will be an attractive node for external foundry customers. Intel 14A also remains on track. In October, as committed, we released our industry-standard 0.9 PDK to select customers. It is our highest quality 0.9 PDK, meeting industry-standard yield and performance criteria at release. As is standard practice in the foundry business, I have consistently maintained that we will not disclose customer details. That being said, I remain highly encouraged by the progress we are making with multiple potential customers on 14A. On advanced packaging, we are pleased by the progress we are making with EMIB and EMIB-P for our internal products. Both continue to see significant external customer traction as well. We continue to improve on execution, working with our supply chain to secure the capacity to meet the needs of our advanced packaging customers. We are also seeing robust progress in the readiness of HBI, which is an enabler of 3D chip stacking for our upcoming server products across our manufacturing network.
Lipu Tan
Additional capacity continues to come online. Intel 3 installation is progressing well in Ireland, as is the ramp of the 18A in both Oregon and Arizona, including Fab 62, our second high-volume 18A fab in New Mexico and Malaysia. We are adding capacity to support strong customer ramps for advanced packaging next year in New Albany, OH. The team recently achieved important construction milestones with installation of the first major structural truss, and we continue to evaluate unique and highly differentiated opportunities to accelerate our Ohio build-out. And I hope to share more on this in the near future. Looking to the future, I have always emphasized that rebuilding Intel is going to be a multi-year journey, and I remain firmly committed to making it happen. We are only one year and a half into this journey. We have made enormous strides in these 18 months, including a dramatic resizing of our workforce, eliminating middle management and bureaucracy, streamlining our executive ranks, and establishing an almost entirely new leadership team. We have instilled once again an engineering-centric culture, streamlined our product portfolio, and put in place a more competitive roadmap for Intel products and Intel Foundry. We still have much more to do. The resurgence in demand for CPUs is a meaningful tailwind for us along our transformation journey. Increasingly, energy efficiency is becoming the most important metric for the AI infrastructure build-out. While GPUs are great at thinking tasks, deterministic CPUs are far more efficient at finding tasks. While GPU reasoning queries run as high as multiple watt-hours of energy, a single CPU query could cost only joules of energy. Applying even conservative estimates to the total number of digital agents and agents served per CPU, it is easy to anticipate a massive dollar and unit TAM for CPUs over the coming five years. By our estimates, server CPU TAM, largely driven by agentic workloads, could increase as much as five times from where it is today, from $40 billion to more than $200 billion over five years. This makes the opportunity for Intel enormous.
Lipu Tan
We are, of course, mindful of fierce competition underway as nearly every fabless company races to meet this unprecedented demand with their own offerings. But Intel is uniquely positioned to benefit from this demand in three ways. First, as a custodian of x86, the most widely deployed ISA in the world, we are doubling down on x86 innovation and have an exciting top-tier roadmap of CPO innovations in the pipeline. In addition, for the first time, while making fully modular verified instances of our x86 CPUs optimized for custom workloads available to our customers. Second, as one of just three advanced-node semiconductor foundries in the world and the only one domiciled in the United States, we are well positioned to support not only our own demand but also the demands of the wider fabless industry. We are also open to building any CPUs at scale for our customers, fully agnostic to underlying ISA. Third, as modern computing platforms increasingly become complex systems-in-package, our leadership in advanced packaging offers highly differentiated solutions, especially to meet the requirements of the massive AI infrastructure build-out underway. This is why I remain optimistic on the opportunities ahead for Intel even as we have work to do. Lastly, while we remain focused on executing against our near-term priorities, we cannot lose sight of what comes next. Intel has a deep portfolio of technology and IP that positions us to drive the next wave of computing while continuing to invest in breakthrough technologies including silicon photonics, neuromorphic computing, advanced materials, and quantum computing that we believe can unlock important new opportunities over time. This week we announced our intent to acquire Classiq, an Israel-based quantum software provider, moving our quantum efforts from foundational research towards commercialization. Classiq's overarching hardware-agnostic software platform layer provides a gateway for more consumers to explore quantum computing, and it is a wonderful complement to our already strong internal quantum hardware and software stacks, enabling us to further extend our compute platform offerings to include QPUs in addition to CPUs, GPUs, and ASICs. Post-acquisition, Intel will become a full-stack revenue-generating quantum computing company.
Lipu Tan
In summary, while we did well in Q3, there's clearly more work to do. I'm disappointed that we were not able to meet strong customer demand in this quarter. We faced near-term challenges including manufacturing supply shortages, the unprecedented memory crunch, and the resulting softness in PC demand. But I remain confident in our path forward. We need to address these challenges with urgency without losing sight of the massive opportunity in front of us. I want to thank our employees, partners, and suppliers for their tireless effort in this quarter. With that, I will turn the call over to Dave for additional details.
Dave Zinsner
Thank you, Lipu. We delivered a strong quarter exceeding our guidance for revenue, gross margin, and earnings per share. This marks the eighth consecutive quarter of exceeding our financial expectations. Our Q3 results reinforce the essential role our server CPUs play in the build-out of super intelligence or AI infrastructure. Results also demonstrate our improving execution as we grow supply to capture the strong demand for AI compute. Third-quarter revenue was $16.5 billion, led by record year-over-year growth in DCAI. Strong execution across our factory network and external supply chain drove better-than-expected server CPU output. This strength was partially offset by weakness in Client, where industry-wide PC consumption is being impacted by memory shortages and limited IT budgets. Third-quarter non-GAAP gross margin was 44.1%, approximately 200 basis points higher than Q2 and our guidance. The sequential improvement was driven by improved costs on Intel 3 and Intel 18A and a more favorable product mix. Third-quarter non-GAAP EPS was $0.52 compared with our guidance of $0.38. The upside was driven by higher revenue, stronger gross margin, and disciplined spending, which together produced better-than-expected operating leverage. Operating cash flow was $5.1 billion. We ended the quarter with approximately $54 billion in cash and short-term investments, in addition to $15 billion of borrowing capacity under our new extended revolvers, up from $10 billion previously. In early August, we further strengthened our balance sheet through a $23 billion equity offering. The incremental interest income associated with the offering contributed approximately 1 cent to Q3 EPS that was not contemplated in our original guidance.
Dave Zinsner
Now moving to segment results. DCAI revenue was $7.3 billion, up 17% sequentially and nearly 80% year-over-year. Revenue was meaningfully ahead of our expectations as our factory network and external suppliers supported higher output. The work our teams have done to increase supply is having a tangible impact. Based on our current outlook, DCAI revenue is on track to finish 2026 nearly $10 billion above expectations. Entering the year, Q3 growth was broad-based across hyperscale, enterprise, and neo-cloud customers. We also continue to see strong momentum in purpose-built silicon, with revenue increasing more than 50% sequentially and more than doubling year-over-year. Despite our progress to increase capacity, demand for DCAI products continues to meaningfully exceed available supply. DCAI operating profit was $3 billion, representing 42% of revenue and increasing approximately $600 million sequentially. The improvement was driven by higher revenue and lower operating expenses. Granite Rapids is now the largest product family in our server portfolio as we continue to increase output from our Ireland facility. Earlier this month at the Open Compute Project Global Summit, we demonstrated select Clearwater Forest configurations that scale beyond 46,000 cores per rack at approximately 133 kilowatts of total rack power, delivering best-in-class performance per Watt. We also introduced the Intel GPUD series, formerly codenamed Crescent Island, which is designed to improve the economics of sustained memory-intensive AI inference. Customer interest in both product families is running ahead of our initial expectations.
Dave Zinsner
CCPG revenue was $8.1 billion, down 9% sequentially and below our expectations. We previously noted that memory shortages could pressure the second-half PC TAM. That pressure intensified during Q3, particularly late in the quarter, and resulted in a meaningful adjustment in customer purchasing patterns. Despite the near-term weakness, we saw several positive developments. Our AIPC revenue grew 35% year-over-year even as total CCPG revenue declined 5%. Our client products on Intel 18A continued to ramp well. Wildcat Lake, our cost-optimized Intel 18A client CPU, increased units by approximately 70% sequentially and is sold out. Lastly, our edge business was more resilient, supported by continued momentum in edge and physical AI design wins. CCPG operating profit was $2.3 billion, representing 28% of revenue and approximately flat sequentially, primarily due to lower inventory charges. Turning to Intel Foundry, Intel Foundry revenue was $6.7 billion, up 16% sequentially, driven by better-than-expected growth on Intel 3 and Intel 18A. External foundry revenue was $411 million, an increase of $118 million sequentially, primarily due to a non-recurring customer program. Intel Foundry reported an operating loss of $1.9 billion, an improvement of $236 million sequentially, even as we continue to invest aggressively to prepare Intel 14A for risk production next year. Higher yields, better cycle times, and increased factory utilization continue to reduce wafer costs. Intel 3 costs improved approximately 15% from Q1 levels, while volumes increased in the mid-teens sequentially. Intel 18A costs have declined approximately 40% since Q1, reflecting continued yield and cycle time improvements. Intel 18A yields continue their upward trajectory to industry-standard levels ahead of our internal projections. Since Q1, Intel 18A client CPUs have grown from less than 5% of revenue to now nearly one-third of client CPU revenue. These results represent meaningful progress, although we still have considerable work ahead of us to deliver a sustainably profitable foundry business.
Dave Zinsner
Now turning to outlook. Demand signals from our data center customers continue to strengthen. We expect the industry to remain supply-constrained throughout 2027 and into 2028. As Lipu discussed, the adoption of agentic AI is broadening the role of CPU compute. AI workloads are moving beyond prompt-based responses toward multi-step reasoning, orchestration, and autonomous persistent action. Our CPUs play a central role in enabling these workloads. As a result, we continue to see strong demand for our DCAI products. We now expect industry server CPU units to grow more than 30% in both 2026 and 2027. Growth would be higher in both years if additional industry supply were available. At the same time, the PC market is weakening after remaining resilient during the first half of 2026. We expect the 2026 PC unit TAM to decline approximately 12%, with second-half units down more than 20%. We do not expect a sustained recovery until memory availability improves and pricing begins to normalize. For 2027, we're planning for the PC unit TAM to decline roughly 10%. We expect year-over-year declines to be more pronounced during the first half, with the potential for improvement in the second half against an easier comparison. Our longer-term view of the PC market remains unchanged. Traditional PCs will play an important role in enabling AI applications and driving strong returns on AI infrastructure spending. In addition, we're just now seeing new agentic systems in the market. We also continue to see attractive longer-term opportunities in edge and physical AI as agentic applications spread across the economy. Taking these factors together, we're guiding Q4 revenue to a range of $15 billion to $16 billion, at the midpoint of $15.5 billion. We expect a gross margin of 38%, a tax rate of 11%, and EPS of $0.25, all on a non-GAAP basis. Our guidance includes an impact of roughly $300 million to revenue and 200 basis points to gross margin based on our early assessment of the incident at Fab 28.
Dave Zinsner
By segment, we expect DCAI revenue to grow mid-teens percent sequentially, with purpose-built silicon growing faster than DCAI overall. Please note almost all of the $300 million impact from Fab 28 is related to 10-nanometer server products. We expect CCPG revenue to decline greater than 20% sequentially as customers move quickly to reduce weeks of inventory and align purchases with their expectations for 2027 consumption. The sequential decline in Q4 gross margin primarily reflects lower overall revenue against our fixed cost base as we adjust client wafer starts to current demand conditions. In addition, revenue mix, especially the strong growth expected in purpose-built silicon, is creating difficult quarter-on-quarter compares. These headwinds will be partially offset by continued yield and cost improvements on Intel 3 and 18A. We expect non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $4.4 billion in Q4 and approximately $16.3 billion for the full year. We expect non-controlling interest or NCI to be approximately $250 million in Q4, and we currently expect NCI of approximately $1.1 billion in both 2027 and 2028. Lastly, we expect Q4 fully diluted share count of 5.44 billion, representing a full quarter of shares issued for the August equity offering. Moving to CapEx, our 2026 gross capital expenditures remain on track to be $20 billion, and we expect 2027 gross capital spending to be up strongly. We have made good progress securing the equipment required to support our growth plans, with firm purchase orders to equipment suppliers increasing nearly 40% sequentially. We are also accelerating clean room build-outs, including Fab 62 in Arizona, and exploring opportunities to accelerate in Ohio. Despite this increase in capital spending and working capital, we remain committed to deleveraging in 2027. We will remain disciplined as we invest, and we will not spend a dollar of capital unless we have confidence in the health of our products and process technologies and clear evidence of customer demand. Our confidence in all three is improving.
Dave Zinsner
In closing, I want to offer a few words outlining the opportunity we see ahead. Our core server CPU market is growing faster than ever, and edge and physical AI represent meaningful incremental opportunities for client-class CPUs even as we navigate the current market conditions. Importantly, as we improve our product execution and roadmap, we have opportunities to regain share and grow even faster than our underlying markets. Beyond our Core x86 franchise, we are investing in three large opportunities where we have meaningful momentum but relatively modest revenue today. Purpose-built silicon, advanced packaging, and external wafer foundry each represents tens of billions of dollars in new markets where our technology, manufacturing assets, and customer relationships provide us a differentiated opportunity to participate. Taken together, we have line of sight to long-term double-digit revenue growth with meaningful leverage and improving margins. We have significant work ahead of us. However, the combination of stronger markets and the cultural changes set into motion by Lipu to improve execution, transparency, and discipline gives us increasing confidence in Intel's long-term earnings power and free cash flow growth, a solid foundation for building sustainable shareholder value. With that, I'll turn it over to John to begin the Q&A.
John Pitzer
Thank you, Dave. As a reminder, please ask one question and a brief follow-up in order to allow us to accommodate as many callers as possible. With that, Jonathan, can we take the first question?
Operator
Certainly. And our first question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS. Your question, please.
Timothy Arcuri
Thanks a lot, Dave. I'm wondering with all the puts and takes and what's going on in PC, I'm wondering if you can give us maybe some guardrails. Maybe you could say it, you know, next year. I mean, it seems like DCAI could grow $10 to $15 billion year-over-year, but PC I'm guessing is maybe down a touch. So can you just maybe give us guardrails for the year and sort of how to think about the shape of the year?
Dave Zinsner
Yeah, thanks, Tim. Yeah, I'm not obviously going to guide next year, but maybe I'll give you some qualitative information. I would say at a high level we see next year as a growth year. You know, we feel like the momentum that we saw in data center this quarter, and you know, taking away the impact from Israel, that momentum would have continued into the fourth quarter. We see that continuing next year. The only little nuance is the first half of the year we are still a bit constrained. You know, we talked about putting 40% more capacity in substrates, but a lot of that doesn't hit us until the back half of the year. In addition, we are still constrained on Intel 3, and you know, we're going to work towards, as Lipu said, moving some of our supply into Oregon, but it's going to take a while before that comes out of the fab and gets into products. So, but we're very optimistic and enthusiastic about the opportunities for us next year in terms of growth on the data center business. In addition, you know, we talked about within DCAI, we also have purpose-built silicon. You know, that business has been growing at a 3X rate over the last three years. We see that growing at a 3X rate in the next three years. And so we're really bullish about that throughout 2027. You know, it's obviously the client that is going to be the most difficult to call. As I talked about, you know, we see TAM declining in '26 by about 12% on a unit basis. We think that's going to be about 10% next year on a unit basis. So that will be one dynamic. Then there's going to be this kind of inventory correction. We're in the throes of that right now. We felt a little bit of it in the third quarter. We're going to feel a lot of it in the fourth quarter. We think it extends at least out into the first quarter. After that, I think you know, you'll start to see like the inventory correction part of this start to wane and we'll be back into more of like you know what's going to go on on the TAM side, which as I said, we're thinking about 10% down. The one added piece of this is you know, we come into next year with Nova Lake as our product offering and we think this is the best set of products we've had in a very long time. We think it covers the gamut of what's required to participate in client. We're very excited about it. We think, you know, next year and in the future years, we're in a kind of a market share gain type of environment for client. So you know, obviously I'm fortunate that, you know, we've run into this challenge on the memory side and its impact on client, but we are very enthusiastic about the products. And I, I just, you know, you didn't ask this question, but I'll just extend it out beyond this year. You know, we do think that the PC is going to go through a renaissance despite this. And you know, we think that as you know, AI workloads start to shift around, there's going to be a lot of workload required in the client space either as a PC or as some kind of agentic box. And so we do see this market as being pretty interesting. You know, it's got to obviously get through this bit of challenge that we have, but longer term, you'll feel really good about the market.
Operator
Tim, do you have a quick follow-up question?
Timothy Arcuri
I do, yeah. So Dave, you did say that CapEx is going to be up a lot next year. I think a lot of us are thinking kind of like $30 billion. But you know, I guess the real question is are you committed to generating free cash flow next year or do you think because of the CapEx burden that that'll be hard? Thanks.
Dave Zinsner
Yeah, it's a good question. Yeah, we haven't exactly locked into the number. You know, we don't do that until we get towards the end of this year. But we have a kind of a directional understanding of what's likely to happen and we have been putting POs in place with equipment vendors given the lead time. So you know, we have some sense of what's going to happen. I think next year is an investment year for us. You know, as we look at the year, you know, probably not, not a dynamic. We're going to have positive free cash flow next year. But it's because we see this as a tremendous opportunity to invest into the growth. And you know, one thing that we have seen is you make the right investments, you ramp the node in the right way, you see profitability and you see return on invested capital. And we talked about this as we were doing the equity offering at the beginning of August, that we think we should be getting at least 20% ROI on all of these nodes as we invest in them. But this, you know, next year is going to be one of those years where there's a couple of things going on at the same time. We're ramping 18A, we're ramping Intel 3 to some extent, and we're making the appropriate investments to position 14A to begin production in '28. That's a lot of investment all hitting us in one year. So I don't think that this will be a year in which we see positive cash flow. And by the way, that is why we raised the money that we did at the beginning of August was to get ourselves positioned to do this. Longer term though, these businesses generate lots of cash flow and if you look at Intel 7 today, kind of 10 nanometers 7, that's already a profitable node to us. Intel 3 is going to be profitable next year for us. So we know we can make these businesses profitable. We know we can generate good cash flow. We know we can get 20% return. We just got to get through what is basically a trough here in '27 to go realize that.
Operator
Thanks, Tim. Jonathan, can we have the next question please?
John Pitzer
Certainly. Our next question comes from the line of Ben Reitzes from Melius. Your question, please.
Ben Reitzes
Yeah, thanks a lot guys. I wanted to ask about some of the issues that you noted for a four-Q and that may linger into one-Q and see if you can kind of size them versus prior expectations and then when they get better. You cited execution, obviously the Israel situation, which is $300 million, wondering what that's going to be in the quarters after that and when that is solved and sorry that happened by the way. And then the client and in the context that the guide is about $1.8 billion below the street, you know, maybe you can kind of go through those three things, how big they are to the cut of $1.8 billion and when they get better. That would be great. Thanks a lot.
Dave Zinsner
Yeah. What was the... so Israel, the client, what was the third one just relative to the guide and street? Yeah, OK. Yeah. So execution, Dave, there was a comment around execution and Lipu made some comments. I'm wondering how big that was in terms of the guidance cut. OK. Well on Israel, you know, we've been shut down for about two weeks. We feel like we're going to be starting up production here by the end of this week. We're trying to assess all the wafers that are in the line and what's usable and what's not usable from those materials. So you know, this is somewhat of an early assessment both really of four-Q and one-Q. But you know, I think the current thinking is that we'll have about a $300 million impact in the fourth quarter. That's likely to be similar in the first quarter. You know, we think most of the write-offs of wafers or scrapping of wafers is likely to all kind of happen in the fourth quarter. You know, that's kind of what's driving the 200 basis points. I wouldn't expect to see additional scrapping going on in the first quarter. But just keep in mind it's early. We're going through all of that as we speak. And you know, of course update you as we go along. You know, I think on the client side, you know, I obviously it's going to kind of reset to this level and we're going to have I think what usually you have a very similar inventory correction quarter to quarter. So I would expect it generally to be similar other than you will have a seasonality effect in Q1 on client as well. So you know, the likelihood is that whatever the level that we're talking about for the fourth quarter, you know, we'll see somewhat of a seasonal decline next quarter. Beyond that, you know, I think from an execution perspective, I have to think about some of the negative things, but you know, a lot of the execution has been really positive. I mean, you know, Lipu and the team have done a very good job driving Intel 3 yields, driving 18A yields, and you know, working the substrate vendors. Lipu was in Japan talking to many of the substrate vendors to make sure that we were getting allocated the appropriate supply. So I think we're as positioned or as well positioned as anyone out there in terms of delivering supply. It's tight, it's going to be tight this next quarter, it's going to be tight into the first half. But I think we positioned ourselves well that, you know, beyond that we should start to see some pretty healthy growth in the data center business.
Operator
Ben, do you have a quick follow-up?
Ben Reitzes
Yeah. Then just with regard to the server velocity, you know there's shortages and what not, but you know do you have an idea for when you think you can ramp and grow in line with the market, you know that's going on that $200 billion plus, is that more second-half next year based on your commentary? Thanks.
Lipu Tan
Yeah, good question. I think, Ben, first of all, I think the server revenue for us is the Granite Rapids that's on the Intel 3. And now clearly we are continuing to drive efficiency in terms of yield. And then secondly, we also try to expand the capacity and I think that Dave mentioned about Oregon, we're planning to have that Intel 3 in the second half of next year to be in production so that we can supply some of the demand from the customer. And so I think overall, I think it would be good to address the Intel 3. And then clearly we have the Clearwater Forest coming up and then we are shipping in revenue that's on 18A. We should have capacity for that. And then Diamond Rapids, that will be 2027, we have 18AP, we'll be ready for that. And of course, the Coral Rapids coming up in 2028, that will be on the 14A. So those I think would be in pretty good shape.
Operator
Thanks, Ben. Jonathan, can we have the next question please?
John Pitzer
Certainly. Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore from Morgan Stanley. Your question, please.
Joseph Moore
Yeah, I mean along the same lines, does the PC weakness give the opportunity to reallocate wafers and sort of address some of this and accelerate that transition?
Dave Zinsner
Answer yes. You know, we had what we're taking offline to put Intel 3 into Oregon is 18A wafers which were generally going to build Panther Lake products. So you know we see the opportunity with some of that capacity freed up to go produce more data center wafers. Just keep in mind that you know we're not only constrained on the wafer side, we're also constrained on the substrate side. So it's important we get the substrate piece of this ramped up to be able to meet the demand.
Operator
Do you have a follow-up question?
Joseph Moore
Yeah, I do. How do you see server market share next year? I think you talked about 30% unit growth. AMD guided to 70% revenue growth. The ARM camp seems to be growing quite quickly. Just you know, I understand you're constrained, but you know, how do you sort of see market share playing out?
Lipu Tan
Sure, I think that's a good question. So clearly we have a roadmap. We like what we have in terms of Colorado Rapids will be competitive to AMD and then next generation product, the Tip Top K will be ahead of the AMD on that. So I think stay tuned. We'll continue to drive leadership. CPO is really our franchise. We are determined to drive success there. And then I think that's a good opportunity for us to really drive that.
Dave Zinsner
Yeah, I'd say maybe one other addition is I really see market share next year being a function of supply. And so the more we can improve our supply on a relative basis, the better.
Operator
Will do. In terms of market share, can we have the next question please, Jonathan?
John Pitzer
Certainly. Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research. Your question, please.
Stacy Rasgon
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to dig into gross margins a little bit. So I get that the 38% guidance I guess would have been 40 without the unfortunate situation in Israel. But as I'm looking into next year, how do I think about the overall drivers? Like I've got clearly I have a client flush and maybe utilization issue, which is a negative. I've got depreciation probably going up from CapEx, which is a negative. And then maybe like is 18A/3 ramp, I guess the yields are getting better. But I guess you can tell us if the gross margins on those parts are still below 107 and I wonder if that mix shift is a headwind plus ASICs and packaging and everything. And maybe on the other side, though, maybe mixed towards servers as a positive, maybe pricing helps. Like I'm just trying to get a feeling of the gross margin evolution in this kind of an environment given all of those puts and takes. It just seems like there's a lot of them. I'm just hoping you can help us out a little.
Dave Zinsner
That's a good question, Stacy. There are definitely a lot of moving pieces. You know, I think from a margin perspective, the Israel piece, you know, it's probably on a margin basis going to be really more of a Q4 event. I don't expect a significant amount in Q1 in terms of scrapping. Usually if we can identify it, we'll scrap it in the quarter. We have, you know, Xeon on demand remains really strong and I think I mentioned Granite Rapids is now margin accretive for us. So growth in Granite Rapids is helpful to gross margins and we will also continue to be focused on both Intel 3 and 18A. Their structural cost is what we can focus on more is what you know, yields, throughput, all of those. We did very well in Q3. We expect to do better in Q4. And you know the goal is to continue to drive that through the year. You're right to on 18A, you know the loading isn't going to be where we want it. We're fixing a little bit of that with putting Intel 3 in Oregon. But nevertheless, there will be a little bit of an under-loading scenario for 18A that's going to be a little bit of a headwind. The other headwind for us, which is I think a positive view the right way, is our purpose-built silicon business and it's kind of in its early stages. Its margins are below the corporate average, but we see tremendous growth there. And Lipu and I really decided to focus on growth driving the gross profit. So we're just going to grow the gross profit, that'll grow the earnings. It may put a little pressure on the operating margin percentage through next year, but I think it will be goodness at the bottom line. I think when you put all that together and it's so many puts and takes, it's hard to quantify. I'd still lean towards the 40 to 60 fall-through, you know that's probably what we're shooting for. So if we have a growth year next year, we should see gross margin expansion given that kind of rule of thumb. It may not work out every quarter that way, but I think when you look at it on a year-over-year basis, it's going to be in that kind of range.
Operator
Stacy, do you have a follow-up question?
Stacy Rasgon
I do, yeah. I just, I guess I wanted to ask about PC. So I mean, Q3 was probably the worst Q3 I've seen for PCs in at least 20 years, maybe more sequentially. And so it does sound like customers probably built inventory in Q3. I guess can you confirm that? And then it sounds like that they're flushing out a bunch in Q4, I kind of get and maybe even in Q1. It sounds like you think things get better in the second half as suppose memory supply. What gives you confidence that memory supply is actually going to improve? If you listen to memory guys, they seem to be suggesting that it won't.
Dave Zinsner
Yeah, let me be clear. I mean we, yeah, it's a good question, Stacy. Let me be clear. You know, we think that when you're dead on that Q4/Q1 are going to be likely the two quarters in which there's most of the inventory correction and you know that impacts us more than the TAM declines. So we will see that in the first and call it Q4/Q1, maybe stretching a little bit into Q2. After that it does recover back to where theoretically billings to us are somewhat equivalent to consumption. So we get a little bit of a recovery from that. But you know, make no mistake, we are not optimistic about next year in terms of memory. You know, we think that it is going to impact the TAM. We think TAM will be down 10% on a unit basis next year and then we'll have to see in '28 whether things improve, but our expectation is that it does not improve in '27.
Operator
Thank you, Stacy. Jonathan, can we have the next question please?
John Pitzer
Certainly. Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America Securities.
Vivek Arya
Thanks for taking my question. For the first one, if I take your implied DC guidance for Q4, you know that puts it at about $8.5 billion or so. And if I annualize that, that's like mid-$30s billion in terms of conceptual target for next year. So I'm curious is that a doable floor, can you do better? Is there kind of ASP expansion, you know, just given demand is outstripping supply or are there other factors we should keep in mind as we think about how large your data center business could be in '27?
Dave Zinsner
Yeah, I think that's a good starting point. I think that's the right way to think about it. You know, what we would characterize is that the first half of '27 is likely to be tighter in terms of wafers and substrates. But we've put a lot of work in place both in terms of as I talked about increasing our wafer output of Intel 3, improving yields as a pathway to get more product and the investments we've made in the substrates with vendors unlock that capacity in the back half of the year. So you know, we do expect it to be a big growth year. I mean, keep in mind also that we roll our purpose-built silicon, our ASIC business in under that business unit. So you know that's part of what's driving a lot of the growth in the fourth quarter. And you know, again, we expect that to continue in '27.
Operator
Vivek, do you have a follow-up?
Vivek Arya
Yes, thank you. I was hoping to get an update on engagements with external customers in your foundry, both on the packaging side and then also more importantly Lipu on the kind of the wafer processing side. Are you expecting external customers for 18AP or should we assume that all the engagements will be on 14A and when do you think Intel gets the confidence to move them from sort of the evaluation, the tape-out or tangible revenue column?
Lipu Tan
So, so you know we are all kind of set in terms of when we should start modeling external revenue for Intel over the next few years. Thank you. Good. Vivek, thank you so much for the question. So I think clearly first question you have is about the packaging. Our EMIB is making great progress. We have been very focused on capacity in the substrate, make sure that we can secure the capacity we need and also the yield profile for the capacity from substrate material. Secondly, we focus on the yield and we're improving substantially. And then thirdly is the cycle time. And then so far under the leadership of Shoki Lee, he will speak CEO of SK Hynix, expert in the process integration. I've done a fabulous job, very dedicated. I think we get a lot of capacity in the next two years in terms of the substrate material and we also improving the yield as a day goes by. And then overall I think we're going to have some stay tuned. We could have a couple of customer ready to allow announce the next two quarters. And then so clearly we always want to wait for the customer if they want to announce we will respond to that. And then secondly on the 18AP, we're making great progress in volume production from Panther Lake and then clearly on their Wildcat Lake. And so I think those internally we've been using it the year we are quite happy with the performance. And right now we also have inbound interest from the external customer and we are intensively working with them and they are very pleased with the EO and right now we are focused on the die size make sure that we can deliver to them and also make sure that IP ready for that. So I think 18AP stay tuned we have some good progress on that. On the 14A, we make tremendous progress. I think we announced the 0.9 PDK we already released to our select customers. They already respond very actively working with us. And then the other part is also I think in terms of performance yield or the metrics and defect density and the variation we are making daily improvement on that. So far we are very pleased. We should be able to do the 1.0 PDK by Q1 next year and we can start engaging with customers with products they like to use our fab and so I think stay tuned again we will have time to announce some of the customer when they are ready.
Operator
Thanks, Vivek. Jonathan, can we have the next question please?
John Pitzer
Certainly. Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JP Morgan. Your question, please.
Harlan Sur
Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Commencing second half of this year, there's a number of new GPU or next-gen CPU platform launches and most of these new launches are going to continue to ramp to the first half of next year given the strong CPU attached to these platforms and many of them are Intel x86 GPU-based platforms. And then additionally, you know, in addition to the overall sort of supply dynamics, which remain tight, but the team is bringing on more capacity, yields are improving as you mentioned. Given all of this, should we anticipate continued sequential growth in DCAI in the first quarter?
Dave Zinsner
Yeah, I mean, I would avoid guiding too much the quarter. I think your overall premise is right. There's going to be a strong driver of demand for CPUs. We see that continuing all through next year. You know, we're working on the supply side of the equation to make sure that we can meet what customers need. We will likely not fully meet what they require, but I think we're going to be in a more challenging situation in the first half of the year than we are the second half. So maybe that's one added data point. I just make sure that you're using when you're modeling. Outside of that, I'd prefer to wait for another quarter and see how things kind of play out before we guide Q1's data center.
Lipu Tan
Colin, just to add on that, I think now clearly you saw our announcement with Oracle Cloud and we also have multiple customers, they are all interested to sign up the LTA agreement with us so that make sure that we can secure the capacity and not the CPO rollout for them. So I think those are encouraging signs that in our CPO is high demand.
Operator
Harlan, do you have a follow-up question?
Harlan Sur
Yeah, on the factors that the team has control over and as a reflection of the continued yield reliability, manufacturability improvements, I think back in Q2 both Panther Lake and Bennett Rapids gross margins were below corporate average as Intel, but as Intel 3 and 18A saw further yield improvements in the third quarter. You did mention Xeon 6, Granite Rapids on Intel 3 accretive to gross margins in Q3. Did the team also drive Core Series 3 and thirdly, gross margins above the low slash mid-40% level in Q3 as well?
Dave Zinsner
So we have definitely made meaningful improvement on the gross margins of Panther Lake. It's not yet at or above the corporate average, but we have made huge strides. And you know, this is just a matter of grinding it out on yields and throughput and you know, driving the right scale and so forth. And these will be accretive gross margins over time. It's just not quite there yet.
Operator
Thanks, Harlan. Jonathan, we've got time for one last question, please.
John Pitzer
Certainly. Then our final question for today comes from the line of CJ Muse from Cantor Fitzgerald. Your question, please.
CJ Muse
Yeah, thanks for taking the question. I guess first question going back to the CapEx, you talked up significantly curious, you know how you're thinking about spending on WFE versus buildings. I think in the past you talked about majority of the incremental spend on buildings, wanted to confirm that that's still kind of the direction that we're going.
Dave Zinsner
Yeah. So we have I think a significant ramp in equipment spend this quarter and it's expected to be even more significant next quarter. So a lot of what we're spending on now is really equipment. You know, we have made the investments. We I would call it putting in a lot of cases finishing touches on some of the space and just, and most of the spend is going towards equipment with the only exception, we're still in the heavy construction phase of Ohio. But outside of that it's really about equipment.
Operator
CJ, do you have a quick follow-up?
CJ Muse
Yeah, I do. On the PC side, you know, I know you've talked about units down 10% next year for the industry. Curious if you could comment how you're thinking about mix shift and what impact that might have on your pricing. Thanks so much.
Dave Zinsner
Mix shift in terms of like low end versus high end and so forth, is that what you mean?
CJ Muse
Yeah, exactly.
Dave Zinsner
Yeah, I mean we have, I would say we have seen strong demand in Panther Lake on a relative basis. You know, obviously the whole market is coming off, but Panther Lake is holding its own. You know, we also put a lot of effort into a product called Wildcat Lake, which is a cost-optimized part. We've seen significant growth in Wildcat Lake. It's coming exactly at the right time because it's cost-optimized and we're seeing a lot of focus in that regard. You know, as we go into next year, you know we'll have Nova Lake and I think the important aspect of Nova Lake is you know we've had a bit of a hole in our portfolio for high-end desktop and Nova Lake filled in that gap. So you know I would expect us to do pretty well on a mix basis because we should see better traction on the high-end desktop as well. So you know, we'll see how it goes. We do feel like we go into the year as a market share gainer with our Nova Lake portfolio. And you know, obviously we'll monitor the market and see how things kind of play out.
John Pitzer
With that, I want to thank everyone for joining us today. We made good progress this quarter on our journey to transform Intel, but we still have a lot of work ahead of us. I look forward to seeing many of you throughout the quarter and providing another update in January.
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
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