Kioxia's guidance missed expectations! What lies ahead for the memory chip sector?
闪迪2027财年Q1业绩直播
Key Takeaways (AI-Generated)
Financial Performance
- Q1 FY2027 revenue hit $11B, up 378% YoY and 23% sequentially, beating guidance. Non-GAAP gross margin reached 85.1%, exceeding the guided range.
- Non-GAAP EPS was $49.51, surpassing guidance of $44-$46. Operating margin stood at 80.4%. Adjusted free cash flow was $5.7B with zero debt.
- Capital return included $5B in share repurchases. Cash from operations totaled $6.4B, reflecting strong liquidity and disciplined financial management.
Business Highlights
- Data Center revenue grew 61% sequentially to $4.8B, now representing ~50% of industry bits. Edge revenue rose 7% to $5.8B, driven by automotive and IoT.
- Consumer revenue declined 29% to $397M due to pricing adjustments. Technology roadmap advances include BiCS 8/9/10 and High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) tape-out.
- New Business Model (NBM) pipeline exceeds supply through end of decade, with two recent closures and 95% investment-grade partners ensuring long-term visibility.
Financial Guidance
- Q2 FY2027 revenue is guided between $12.2B and $12.6B. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected at 84.5%-85.5%, including modest price increases.
- Q2 Non-GAAP EPS guidance is $55-$57 pre-split ($6.88-$7.13 post-split). An 8-for-1 stock split is effective November 19/20.
- FY2027 outlook anticipates strong market conditions with Data Center bit demand growing ~40% YoY. CapEx is projected to rise to mid-single-digit percentage of revenue.
Opportunities
- AI infrastructure growth drives structural NAND demand via inference workloads, positioning NAND as integral to the AI stack. HBF targets HBM-class bandwidth with higher capacity.
- Automotive emerges as a key Edge growth vector. Data Center mix is expected to exceed 55% of market bits in CY2027, enhancing revenue stability.
- SLC mode flexibility allows NAND substitution for DRAM in endurance-sensitive workloads. Strategic NBM partnerships provide financial commitments from hyperscalers and AI leaders.
Full Transcript (AI-Generated)
Operator
Good afternoon and welcome to Sandisk's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star and then zero on your telephone keypad. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press * and then one on your telephone keypad. After all your questions, you may press * and two. Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Ivan Donaldson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Ivan Donaldson
Before we begin, please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements based on management's current assumptions and expectations, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements include expectations for our technology and product portfolio, our business plans and performance, our capital allocation priorities, market trends and opportunities and our financial results. We assume no obligation to update these statements. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10K and our other filings with the SEC for more information on the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. We will also make references to non GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations between the non GAAP and comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the written materials posted in the Investor Relations section of our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to David.
David Goeckeler
Thanks, Ivan. Good afternoon and thank you for joining Sandisk's fiscal first quarter 2027 earnings call. We began fiscal year 2027 with another strong quarter, creating value for customers and shareholders and delivering results above guidance. Our strategy is working and our execution is delivering strong results. Revenue for the quarter was $11 billion. Non GAAP gross margin was 85.1% and non GAAP earnings per share was $49.51. We generated $5.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow and returned $5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases. Our confidence in the long term trajectory of the business is grounded in three enduring strengths: technology leadership, deep customer partnerships and disciplined financial management. These strengths are reinforced by a structural increase in NAND demand driven particularly by AI and by customer signals now extending beyond fiscal year 2030 through our new business model, our NBM partnerships. Together, they position us to invest with confidence in our technology road map, strengthen and expand our customer relationships and deliver growing and durable free cash flow while returning capital to shareholders.
David Goeckeler
It starts with our technology leadership. BIX 8 is the backbone of our current production portfolio and the industry benchmark for performance and density across TLC and QLC. BIX 8 introduced our CMOS directly bonded to Array, our CBA architecture, enabling the performance required by AI data center customers and establishing the framework for future generations. BIX 9 pairs the proven BIX 8 cell array with next generation CMOS, significantly increasing interface performance while retaining a mature memory architecture. BIX 10 advances the full node architecture across both TLC and QLC, with a 1 TB TLC die designed for performance intensive workloads and a 2 TB QLC die delivering industry leading density and twice the read and write bandwidth of BIX 8. Together, these technologies will extend the BIX 8 foundation to meet the evolving performance and capacity requirements of next generation infrastructure. Beyond the core road map, High bandwidth flash or HBF reached an important milestone in the fiscal first quarter with the tape out of our first HBF memory die with fabrication now underway. As we outlined at Investor Day, HBF is a new memory architecture for inference that targets HBM class read bandwidth with substantially greater capacity to support larger models, longer context lengths, and growing KV caches. It is designed to complement HBM by bringing NAND class capacity closer to the processor. And we remain on track to deliver samples of our first HBF based products next calendar year. HBF remains a future innovation and is not included in the long term financial model we introduced at Investor Day. As customer adoption, product requirements and manufacturing readiness become more clearly defined, we expect to provide further perspective on the market opportunity.
David Goeckeler
Customers recognize the strength of our innovation and increasingly view SanDisk as an important partner in achieving their growth objectives. Through our NBMs, we continue to evolve customer relationships into long term partnerships grounded in innovation, collaboration and shared commitment. Our most recent customer engagements with the world's leading AI companies indicate further upside in demand for our technology. Our market leading technology product portfolio and customer partnerships are the backbone of our strong financial position, which allows us to reinvest to maintain our technology leadership and expand supply through R&D focus CapEx. Each of these strengths is reinforced by tailwinds from AI. The need for scalable memory and storage is expanding as inference workloads grow, making NAND increasingly integral to AI infrastructure. During inference, each generated token must reference the context that precedes it, creating a growing KV cache that serves as the model's working memory. Longer prompts, more complex reasoning, multimodal inputs and persistent user context material increase the storage requirements. HBM and DRAM support the highest performance tier, while Flash provides the capacity required to retain broader context efficiently and avoid costly recomputation. We believe this is a secular dynamic that is expanding NAND's role across the AI stack.
David Goeckeler
The memory hierarchy defines the role of each NAND architecture. TLC provides the lower latency, higher rate performance and greater endurance required for active data sets, checkpointing and latency sensitive KV cache workloads. In our AI lab comparison, we presented at Investor Day, systems utilizing SSD delivered approximately 3 times the token throughput while using approximately 75% less energy than comparable systems relying on volatile memory alone. QLC further increases storage density for capacity intensive applications such as data lakes, vector databases that power AI search and retrieval repositories. Between these layers, a growing persistent context tier establishes data to be retained and recalled rather than regenerated. As inference costs decline, we expect the adoption and usage to expand, supporting our view that KV Cache will represent approximately 1/3 of the AI data center flash market by the end of the decade and that the AI data center opportunity will approach the size of the NAND industry today.
David Goeckeler
Turning to our end markets. In data center, our portfolio addresses the full range of AI infrastructure requirements from performance intensive enterprise SSD to high capacity platforms. Demand remains strong and continues to grow, and we estimate the data center has expanded from approximately 20% of industry bits early in the decade to roughly half of the industry bits today. The structural shift in customer mix is reshaping industry economics and is central to the transformation underway at SanDisk. This quarter, Data center again delivered strong growth and continued to outpace the broader market as we allocated more supply to address the growing demand from this end market. Edge is a large and strategically important market for SanDisk spanning smartphones, PCs, automotive tablets and an expanding range of physical AI applications. Automotive is becoming an increasingly important growth vector in our Edge business and a meaningful long term growth opportunity. We have deepening engagements with leading customers, reinforcing our confidence that automotive can become one of the largest markets within Edge over time. Our consumer business remains a differentiated strategic asset combining direct brand engagement with hundreds of millions of end users and broad shelf presence across the world's leading channel partners. The consumer end market provides a durable foundation for the business, while its direct connection to the market informs product development and provides early insight into shifts in end user demand. Taken together, these results reinforce the durability of the model we outlined at our Investor Day. We have established a strong level of profitability and cash generation and our focus from here is consistent execution across the portfolio. With that, I'll turn the call over to Louise for a detailed update on our business and outlook.
Louise Brittain
Thank you, David. We're executing the strategies and plans that we outlined at Investor Day, and we're delivering attractive financial results. In the first quarter, we closed 2 NBMs because both deals closed before our fourth quarter earnings call. We announced these partnerships on that call. We're in active conversations with existing NBM customers that are evaluating extending existing agreements and with new customers that are evaluating new NBMs. These long term partnerships provide greater visibility into demand and financial performance supporting a more durable financial model. We will remain patient and disciplined in selecting the right long term partners as we define the optimal percentage of our bits that we allocate to NBMs, which is likely higher than our current levels. Revenue for the first quarter was $11 billion, up 23% sequentially and 378% year over year. This compares favorably with our guidance range of $10.3 to $10.8 billion. Both volume growth and higher pricing contributed to revenue growth, with approximately 60% of the increase attributable to volume growth and 40% to higher pricing. Data center revenue was $4.8 billion, up 61% sequentially, outpacing estimated market growth for the quarter. Our leading products and strong customer partnerships, including three US hyperscalers, underpin our continued expansion in this fast growing end market. Edge revenue was $5.8 billion, up 7% sequentially, reflecting resilience in premium and mainstream markets, partially offset by contraction at the lower end. Within edge, we saw strong growth with automotive and IoT customers. Consumer revenue was $397 million, down 29% sequentially, as the market adjusts to higher pricing. We remain committed to serving all three end markets with a diversified portfolio that optimizes our performance over time.
Louise Brittain
Non GAAP gross margin for the first quarter was 85.1%, up from 84.6% in the prior quarter, driven by higher volumes and pricing. This compares favorably with our guidance range of 83 to 85%. Non GAAP operating expenses were $513 million, representing 4.7% of revenue. Non GAAP operating margin was 80.4% compared to 79.2% in the prior quarter. Non GAAP EPS was $49.51, up from $39.25 in the prior quarter and $1.22 in the same quarter of the prior fiscal year. This compares favorably with our guidance range of $44 to $46. We closed the quarter with 154,000,000 diluted shares outstanding. Key GAAP to non GAAP reconciliation includes $91,000,000 in stock based compensation representing 0.8% of revenue and a $513 million gain on equity securities primarily attributable to our investment in Anya. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.2 million shares of our common stock for $5 billion. Over the past two quarters, we have repurchased 6,000,000 shares, representing approximately 4% of our total shares outstanding. Our repurchases reflect our conviction in the long term value of the business and our disciplined approach to capital allocation. We continue to invest appropriately in the business while returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders.
Louise Brittain
Moving on to free cash flow. Cash flow from operations was $6.4 billion. Gross capital expenditures totaled $378 million representing 3.4% of revenue. We expect gross capital spending to increase during the balance of the year and represent mid single digit percentage of revenue for fiscal year 2027. During the quarter, we generated $5.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow representing approximately 52% margin. We closed the quarter with $5.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents and no debt. Moving on to guidance, our confidence in the long term health of the market is reinforced by the structural growth of the AI infrastructure and the expanding role of NAND across inference workloads. Before turning to our second quarter outlook, I will announce that the SanDisk Board of Directors has approved an 8-for-1 stock split of the company's common stock. The additional shares are expected to be distributed on November 19 and trading on a split adjusted basis is expected to begin on November 20. For the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, we expect revenue between $12.2 billion and $12.6 billion. We expect non GAAP gross margin between 84.5 and 85.5%, which includes modest like for like price increases. On a pre split basis, we expect non GAAP EPS between $55 and $57 assuming 151 million fully diluted shares. On an 8-for-1 split adjusted basis, this equates to non GAAP EPS between $6.88 and $7.13 assuming approximately 1,208 million fully diluted shares. For context, we expect a strong market in calendar year 2027. Data center is expected to again be the engine of growth and represent over 55% of the market with bit demand growing about 40% year on year enabled by higher AI driven capital spending. This is after more than doubling in 2026. Our NBM pipeline exceeds our supply throughout the end of the decade without constraint.
David Goeckeler
Let me turn the call back to David. Thank you, Louise. We continue to execute on the strategy we outlined at Investor Day, reinforcing our confidence in SanDisk's long term trajectory. Our technology leadership, deep customer partnership and disciplined financial management supported by a structural increase in NAND demand driven by AI position us to serve our customers, deliver growing and durable free cash flow and return capital to shareholders. Over the past year, we have transformed the earnings and cash generation power of the business and established a strong foundation for durable performance. We remain focused on disciplined execution, sustained value creation and delivering against our long term financial objectives. With that, Ivan, let's open it up for questions.
Operator
At this time, we'll begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press * and then one on your telephone keypads. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up the handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed, you would like to withdraw your question, you may press * and two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble the roster. Our first question today comes from Ben Reitzes from Melius. Please go ahead with your question.
Ben Reitzes
Hey guys, thank you very much. I appreciate it. Hey Dave, wanted to ask two if I could. One on the NBMs, you know, you signed 2 before the last call. So I'm just wondering if we're going to have a lot more of them because it seems like you're already capacity constrained to agree to them. And then do you mind reminding us what the bits under contract will be the next few years, if that's changed at all? And then I have a quick follow up. Thanks.
David Goeckeler
Yeah, I'll make a few comments. Thanks Ben, we appreciate it. Always good to hear from you. So I'll make a few comments on NBMs and then Louise will fill in. Yeah, we've got, you know, we've got a very strong pipeline of NBMs and you know you kind of hit on all the issues there is the portfolio gets more subscribed and more committed and you know we're at half the bits for this fiscal year and 2/3 for next year. You know, it's a fitting exercise to get the next tranche of them in there. But the pipeline is very strong. You know, I think we said last quarter, I know we said last quarter that we're going to be patient and consider the next set of customers and that's exactly what we're doing. And you know, we expect more of them over the next, you know, several months, several quarters as we continue to allocate the rest of the portfolio. So the pipeline is very strong and growing quite frankly and it's become the predominant way we deal with our customers. And you know, I expect that the percent of the portfolio committed to continue to go up over the next couple quarters. So, Louise?
Louise Brittain
Yeah, I mean, just a few things because I think they would cover most of it. We feel very good about where we are with the NBMs. As you know, we've been very selective, very strategic in who we chose to sign these deals with. We're looking at the companies we have and 95% of our NBMs are with companies that are investment grade and they generated about $130 billion in operating cash flow. So we feel that we made the right choices and as David just mentioned, we'll continue to be patient, we'll continue to be selective and the pipeline is terrific. So you should expect us to continue to make progress. I think in my prepared remarks, I said that we expect the bits to continue to grow. We had a share with you that about 50% of our bits are on their NBM for '27 and about 2/3 for '28 and we expect that number to continue to go a little bit higher from the 2/3.
David Goeckeler
Hey Ben, I'll just make one more comment. You got to ask 2 questions or I'll make 2 comments. We're also balancing customers that are coming back for more. Like that is a real thing. And you know, in general, we're hearing from our customers that they have underestimated the amount of NAND they need to run their infrastructure. And so we have multiple customers coming back for a second round and then balancing that against bringing new customers into the portfolio. So there's a lot to sort out and these are big complicated agreements, but we feel very, very good about where the pipeline is, where the portfolio's at, the products are resonating. And you know, we'll continue to update you as we build out the portfolio of NBMs over the next couple of quarters.
Ben Reitzes
OK, great. And just a quick follow up, you may have seen that Intel guided down for the next quarter due to PCs and it really, you know, the impact of the memory is more than anybody thought at least with their guidance. Don't know about anybody else. Just wondering if you are seeing NBM interest from those in the PC market more and how you, if there's, if that market you know, with regard to some of the device makers is something that will become an NBM or is actually now getting more attractive because they're willing to pay more. How should we think about that as it looks like they're starved for product and missing numbers in that segment?
David Goeckeler
Yeah, I mean, Ben, we, we cannot talk about specific customers. What we've said in the past is we do have NBMs in the data center business. It's data center centric, but we also have customers on the edge and we've offered this construct to any customer that wants it and start a process where it makes sense. So we're not trying to restrict this from any customer. We're open for business. So Ben, the other thing I'll say to this, I mean we were looking this in our own reviews, you know, we know that units were down this year, they're going to be slightly down next year, low single digits. I mean these two calendar quarters right now are really the trough of the year over year compares where they're the most negative. And so you know, this is where we're feeling the biggest amount of change in that market on a unit basis, on a year over year basis. All that said, we expect the PC exabytes to grow next year. And in fact, we think our internal models are every segment in the NAND market, you know, PC smartphones, data center, we'll all show positive growth next year because of content per device continues to go up. As you know part of that is mixing to premium. So there's no doubt there's been a market adjustment in many ways. We're in the teeth of that on a year over year basis, but we see improvement from here.
Ben Reitzes
Thanks guys.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.
Joe Moore
Great, thank you. Seems like the underlying story here in addition to just how good the market is, is your presence in data center, you're up almost 20X year on year, up 61% sequentially. Can you talk about obviously the market's good, but it seems like your participation is also a lot better. Is that because of BIX 8? Is that just because the market's different? Just what is it that's allowing you to get to those levels of penetration and if data centers half of bits at some point, you know when you get to that in your own mix as well?
David Goeckeler
Yeah, Joe, so thanks for the comment. We feel very good about where we're at in Data Center. I mean anything where you see the kind of numbers we've posted year over year as a combination of things. I mean it starts with the fundamental NAND node. You know, BIX 8 is a very good node. You know, CBA gives you very clean CMOS, which is very good interface speeds, all those kinds of things. You know, we built the right products. We've had eTLC product in the market for several years now. You know, it was just a couple of quarters ago that we started selling our QLC product for revenue and that you know, we expected that to ramp and that's happening. So we got the right product at the right time based on the right technology. And then, you know, over the last quarter or so, there's been a lot more refinement of the AI inference architecture is what I would say. When I look at the market and we kind of decompose it internally, you know, customers are just getting more refined about how they're using NAND, where they're using TLC, where they're using QLC, you know, all different phases from KV cache to staging to fast data lakes and all the sub parts of those markets, inference and agent orchestration model, pre training model post training. There's just a general we're seeing NAND be applied in a more nuanced way in the past. You know, QLC is being used in the right places and you're even seeing QLC sub customers even move into like KV cache where they can be supported. On the other side of the spectrum, we're seeing SLC being pulled into the architecture. It's not really in sales yet. It's more in architectural conversations and it's not a performance type of conversation. It's more endurance like during agentic workloads, the amount of endurance required. And in that place it's kind of where can we substitute NAND for DRAM. And you know, we think those kind of architectures will be very sticky over time. Once you make that transition, you're going to stick with it given the price differential. So we see all of these things working together and you know, I think these NBMs set us up for these very deep and strategic level conversations with our customers about how they're using our product, deep discussions with our engineers about how they could use our product to solve different use cases. And all of that is leading to a tremendous pull on our portfolio. And like I said, our biggest customers, we've already signed one second tranche of an NBM and we're in discussions with others. So the whole setup is very strong and we feel good about it and we appreciate your recognition of the performance on a year over year basis. It really is quite outstanding.
Joe Moore
Yeah, it is surprising. And where do you think the mix goes long term in terms of could overshoot?
David Goeckeler
Oh yeah. So yeah, we're working hard to catch up to have our portfolio mix equal what the market bits are. And you know, we're going to continue to make progress throughout calendar year '27. We'll see if we actually catch up by the end of the quarter. But you know, I think we'll get to a substantially higher number on mix than we are. If we look back at calendar year, our fiscal year '26, we'll continue to make progress here.
Joe Moore
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Mark Newman from Bernstein. Please go ahead with your question.
Mark Newman
Hi, thanks so much for taking the question. On the if I could just first of all talk about price and volume in the guidance you talked about in the fiscal Q1 that you just reported, I think you said 60% of the revenue growth from volume and 40% from pricing baked into your guide, I mean how do you expect that mix to progress any comments on pricing? Appreciate that you've got a very high portion of volumes on these NBMs, but still wanted to get some clarity on pricing. I think there's a comment that's a modest improvements in pricing in FQ2. Any further clarity on that? And then I have a follow on question on HBF and then some of the new NAND technologies as well.
David Goeckeler
Yeah, so let me take the first one. Yes, you're right. We reported about 60% of the revenue growth came from volume and 40% from pricing in Q1 roughly. And we do expect both to contribute in the next quarter. We normally don't break this mark into it's but we do expect some modest pricing as we put in our prepared remarks. So we do expect both to contribute during the quarter and we expect pricing to continue to increase modestly throughout the year.
Mark Newman
That's helpful. Fair enough. And follow up question is on HBS and other new NAND technologies in the data center. So you, you there was a comment about some progress on HBS which was great to hear, but wonder if there's any more comments on progress and discussions with partners and customers, anything there? And the other thing Dave, you mentioned about some of the other new NAND technologies in the data center storage next. And then there's also the CMX context memory. Just you know, what do you, what's your view and all these types of new NAND tiers in the data center Do you think that they all win? Just any kind of comments on the interplay of all these and the roles for each and how Sandis plays in them and the timing would be really appreciated. Thanks.
David Goeckeler
Sure. So, Mark, no, you know, the conversations with potential customers on HBF are robust and continue to be, you know, we'll continue to have those conversations as we go into putting product that, you know, samples in their hands that they can start to use and understand how it's going to fit in their system. So we'll continue to update on that. But it's, you know, it's a kind of always on conversation. Your second question, I think this is like very healthy for where AI inference is, which is as it scales out, it needs to be the architecture is just being relentlessly refined for economics. And that's a very good thing because it's going to, it makes, you know, it's good. If it's going to scale, it's, you know, the more economic it is, the better. And that's pulling NAND into more parts of the architecture because NAND is the most scalable semiconductor technology, right? So we're seeing, like I said, we're seeing, you know, if you would go back a couple years ago, it was all about going for more density again, going from TLC to QLC. We're still doing that, right. That's still a big part of the strategy. But now there's some of it even going in the other direction. How do I use, how do I get more endurance in, in specific parts of the architecture? Is the endurance in the performance I get out and good enough to solve the use case at a part of the architecture where I can use it over competing technologies that may be significantly more expensive and difficult to acquire. So I would say this is a very dynamic discussion. There's a lot of ideas on the table. I think there should be a lot of ideas on the table. I think they'll all be pursued. And I think that it's the most important thing is to stay close to the people that are spending the money to scale the infrastructure, because in the end, they'll make the decisions of what's right for them based on the use cases they're trying to solve at scale and where they're putting all this money behind it. And we're deeply engaged in those conversations. And I expect them to continue to be very robust and have a lot of different ideas about how we could stretch our technology in different directions to fit more and more use cases. And you know, in building a product, it's always the same thing. I want the right technology at the right time and the right intensity at the right cost and really not anything less or anything more. And that's what building a product was all about because you can deliver it at the right price and then you can get the right return on it. So that process is full on in AI inference architecture working with our customers.
Mark Newman
Fantastic. Thanks for the color.
Operator
Our next question comes from David Gibson from MST Financial. Please go ahead with your question.
David Gibson
Thanks guys. Really great quarter. Well done. I'm just curious, can you hear me? Sorry, Yes, yes, hi David. Yeah, just wondering if. Hi, thanks very much for your time today. Just a quick one, just wondering whether you're looking to accelerate the BIX transition from 8 to 9 to 10 and so forth as a way to accelerate the bit growth in the short term and satisfy some of that very strong customer demand?
David Goeckeler
No, I mean we're committed to the bit growth we talked about, you know, mid to high teens those nodal transitions require a lot of planning and tool purchases and where lines are set up. So you know, we're still we have that fab plan set up for the kind of bit growth we've been talking about for a long time. So no plans to change that at this point.
David Gibson
OK, thank you. And just one follow up, you talked about earlier about allocating more supply to the data center in Q1. Are there any limits to increasingly allocating, you know your bits to data center?
David Goeckeler
Well, I mean, it's a that's, you know, very there in some ways, yes, I mean out of the fab you come out with a certain mix of TLC QLC, certain die mix, all these kinds of issues. So it's a constant fitting exercise of getting the right product to the right customer. And then and there's a lot of, you know, magic that goes on in the organization in Louise's organization is a big part of that working with our sales teams of, you know, what is the available inventory, what's coming out of the fab, what's the mix and where is it all going to go? So you want to say a little bit more about that?
Louise Brittain
Yeah, I think the only thing I would add, obviously changes depending on the time frame you're looking at you over the short term, it's almost impossible to do anything. It takes 120 days or so to produce a wafer. But obviously as you look for further out, there are more degrees of freedom.
David Gibson
OK, that's great. Thanks very much.
Operator
Next question comes from CJ Muse from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead with your question.
CJ Muse
Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess the question on the comment around your NBM pipeline exceeding supply through the end of the decade in the slide deck, I guess you know, can you elaborate on that and, and how is that changing kind of your thought process around what bit supply will look like for the industry over the, you know, next handful of years? And you know, how are you adjusting if at all your CapEx plans? I know you talked about mid single digits, which you know implies roughly 2 1/2 to 3 billion gross CapEx, fairly low kind of numbers. So would love to hear kind of your thoughts on how the visibility is impacting your thoughts around bit growth and supply.
David Goeckeler
Well, I mean, I think you know, my first thing I say about it, CJ is the process is working. I mean, it was only two or three quarters ago we talked about even instituting this kind of business model. And you know, we had some customers that were like minded and we made some very good progress. And you know, here we are a couple quarters later and it's you know, we talked about this after our Investor Day, we had customers coming to us offering NBMs and that now becomes it's not the only way we do business. You know, there's lots of customers with lots of different volume levels and different products. And you know, we want to meet our customers where they are. There's no doubt about that. But you know, it's very good to see that we have a robust pipeline now through the end, you know, through 2030. And we're even getting beyond that, as we talked about, of customers that are really willing to give us their demand signals and financial commitments. And to the question earlier, you know, that those kinds of things will allow us, you know, if we choose to, to eventually start changing supply and demand and all those kinds of things. But we're just not there yet, right? We got to go through negotiations on all of those. We've got to get commitments. We've got to get everything all aligned. But I would say that, you know, the process is working well and we're very happy with where it's at and it gives us a lot more visibility and into how we plan. But the process is still underway, right? We're it's still underway. And you know, we'll as I said, we'll continue to update you over the next couple quarters as we make progress.
CJ Muse
Just a quick follow up for Louise on these contracts and considering some have deposits, are you able to use those deposits for buybacks or is that cash restricted? Thanks so much.
Louise Brittain
Yeah, in theory we could, CJ, but as we explained at Analyst Day, the vast majority are financial guarantees which are held by third party financial institutions. So they're not on my balance sheet. The only thing that's in the balance sheet is prepayments and we know that's by far the smallest amount, but there is no legal restriction on that.
CJ Muse
Great, Thanks so much.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Karl Ackerman from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead with your question.
Karl Ackerman
Yes, thank you. It's encouraging to see increasing NAND content for XPU and AI servers to support KV cash demand, which I think compares to reductions in memory content and some server SKUs. But Dave, could you discuss how you see enterprise SSD content per server progressing in 2027 in the context of the Sygentic AI proliferation, because it's certainly becoming a larger portion of your portfolio?
David Goeckeler
Yeah, that's a big question, Carl. I mean, look, we're, what we're doing is, is, you know, there's no doubt in inference and agent orchestration that our product is tied to kind of CPU demand. And for those type of applications, I mean, we know at a pretty granular level the amount of demand that we expect per CPU. You know something 60 to 90 gigabytes per CPU is what we see in those kind of applications. I haven't run the math against what the server TAM is and kind of what the elasticity is between those two. But we can follow up on that. But you know, as I said earlier, we continue to see more NAND being pulled into the inference architecture in all parts of the architecture and in very different ways, right? TLC QLC And as I said earlier, now people looking for high endurance solutions that'll fit parts of the workload where they don't need to use DRAM and they can use that type of NAND. So it's all very encouraging and we'll continue to stay close, but we'll do some work on the TAM analysis and what the trade-offs are between them.
Karl Ackerman
Sure. If I may a quick follow up. Do you have an updated view or progress on your goal for enterprise SSD share? I mean, can you achieve perhaps that loaded mid teens share in 2027 because you're seeing quite success right now. Thank you.
David Goeckeler
Yeah, we've tried not, I mean in the past like many, many years ago, we put some share goals out there and I've tried very hard not to put share goals out there because sometimes it leads to kind of perverse choices in the portfolio. We want to maximize the value of the portfolio across all time horizons, near term, mid term, long term. So we want to keep some balance into it. Clearly we're going to mix higher into data center. I mean you see that we talked about that earlier. I think 17X growth year over year, you don't see a 17X very often in a business at this scale. And as I said, I expect that to go higher as we go through '27. And the balance point in some ways will depend quarter by quarter of what we see and then what NBMs we sign, right. Those will give us a lot of visibility over the next several years where we see that mix going. So it's going higher, but I'm not going to put a specific target out there.
Karl Ackerman
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho. Please go ahead with your question.
Vijay Rakesh
Yeah, hi Dave and it's just a great quarter end guide. Just a quick question, as you look at data center, you know, your 2027 looks like you mentioned great 40% demand bit growth, which is massive. As you look at this Bix 8, BIX 9, BIX 10 transitions, do they help you drive some bits to meet that demand? How is the supply on that side? I guess a quick follow up. I mean, look, I mean Bix 8, Bix 9 is a big part of a data center strategy of being able to get, you know, faster interface speeds with the same cell and, and you know, kind of what CBA gives us that flexibility. We talked about that Investor Day. So you know, in that sense, yeah, those are big parts of the strategy. There's no doubt about it. So as I said earlier, it's about getting the right product to the right customer. And we, you know, the TLC product has been performing very well for quite some time now. And now we're seeing the ramping of QLC and we'll see some ramp of Bix 9, but Bix 10 is still a little ways out, right? I mean we announced Bix 10, but we're still ramping Bix 8. So we've got a ways to go before we get out to some of those future BIX nodes. Got it. And then on the inside, as you mentioned, you know, some of your peers and you know, I'm talking about SLC NAND out there, you know, any parts how that plays out next year, Obviously that could tighten up the NAND market as well, in addition to, you know, what you're seeing in just overall demand growth, I guess. Thanks.
David Goeckeler
I think, yeah, I think it's a little early to have a very strong view on that, right? We are talking to some customers that are giving us some signals of, you know, demand for SLC. I mean, clearly you start mixing SLC and you're going to take away, you know, there's a clear trade ratio of three to 1, four to one, whether it's TLC or QLC. So it will impact the overall supply of the market depending on how much SLC is used and how much really gets deployed. But it's a little early to put a specific forecast on it right now. What I would say it's an architectural discussion and a request from customers of better understanding the technology and how it could fit parts of the use case of as they build out their inference architecture. So we'll update you as we go over the next couple of quarters and we'll see how this develops, but definitely something to keep an eye on.
Vijay Rakesh
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Jim Schneider from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.
Jim Schneider
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering maybe on more tactical basis, you know your consumer business obviously has seasonality in Q1 historically and obviously the PC business does too, but data center is in the sort of secular growth mode. So Luis, based on your visibility at this point, I'm just wondering if you could maybe give us any kind of color on whether you'd expect Q1 to be sequentially up, down or sideways roughly.
Louise Brittain
So fiscal Q3, you mean?
Jim Schneider
Yes, fiscal the March quarter, March quarter, yeah.
Louise Brittain
So if you look at historically right, our Q3 is normally our weakest sequential quarter. So last quarter for example, our bits were down 19% sequentially. So if I you know if we're not guiding Q3, but for modeling purposes, I would be conservative in your sequential growth from Q2 to Q3.
Jim Schneider
Thank you. And then just as a matter of principle on, you know, on the buybacks, good to see the continued execution there. I'm sort of curious as you sort of start to run down the authorization, would you expect the board to re up their authorization on a quarterly basis or maybe you provide us any more color on how you're thinking about executing on the actual buybacks given a much lower stock price today? Thank you.
David Goeckeler
Yeah, so we have a very clear strategy, 100% of excess cash is going to go back to shareholders. We're going to execute that aggressively or appropriately. And you know, we know how to get rid of get a hold of the board. We have meetings every quarter. And so I don't expect any impedance on that side of the on, you know from us about how we execute. I expect us to continue to be faithful to our strategy which is we're going to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. We're off to a good start. I think over the last couple of quarters, I think we bought back 4% of the market capitalization of the shares outstanding of where we started and we're going to continue to execute that program appropriately.
Jim Schneider
Thank you.
Operator
And our next question comes from Krish Sankar from TD Cowan. Please go ahead with your question.
Krish Sankar (via Steven)
Hi, thanks so much for taking my questions. This is Steven calling on behalf of Krish. First question I have for Dave. I guess looking at your CSP customer base, kind of wanted to get some color on, you know what the prevailing demand currently is between TLC versus QLC bits and kind of going forward with the NBMs in place. Does that TLC versus QLC mix shift meaningfully later this decade?
David Goeckeler
You know, we're still like at that 70/30 number on TLC to QLC. TLC has been a big driver of the portfolio and we are hearing more from our customers about a re acceleration of QLC in different use cases. And so we'll see how that plays out as you said through the end of the decade. But you know, yeah, we that that's where it is. I mean that 70/30 number is a pretty good number. And of course there's some fluctuation quarter to quarter a little bit up and down here and there, but that's where it's been and that's where we expected to be at least for the rest of this fiscal year we put let me put that time horizon and then we'll see where what customers are thinking about QLC as you know as we continue to have those discussions. OK, I will say the ramp the Stargate product has been which is our QLC product, don't use too many internal names here, but been very well received. You know, it was not that many quarters ago that we were talking about going through qualifications. That's all 100% behind us. Customers are ramping. It's been a very well received product in a very key part of the portfolio.
Krish Sankar (via Steven)
Gotcha. And as a quick follow up question on the mobile edge market, just given the double digit unit declines in that market this year as well, but I'll be concentrated in the kind of entry and mid tier of the market. I'm kind of curious like from the demand signals that some of your customers in that market are giving you can your mobile bits still grow next year overall?
David Goeckeler
Yeah, I think, you know, let's talk about the market first. I mean you you got it. I mean the low end is under pressure, but you know that that leads to a unit decline, but a content per unit increasing. So when you add it all up, we expect growth of exabytes in that market next year on a slightly declining unit count. As far as our portfolio, I mean, you know, we, we don't, it's kind of like data center. We don't want to, I don't want to make projections on individual markets. We will manage the portfolio with agility and flexibility. We've been very clear that we want balance in the portfolio. But you know what we're going to optimize the financial outcome over the short, mid and long term, kind of integrate those to get the best outcome. And you know, we'll update you on what the mix of mobile is as we go forward.
Krish Sankar (via Steven)
Perfect. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
Wamsi Mohan
Yes, thank you so much. In your slide, like you say, leading AI companies could indicate further demand upside. I was wondering if these are AI labs or Neo clouds and or any of the credit concerns around the Neo clouds filtering back to you in any way that you can see at the moment? And I will follow up.
David Goeckeler
Yeah, we haven't seen any of that. To the contrary, you were seeing very strong demand from our customers. And I said, if I look at our largest customers, they are basically all investment grade companies, right, generating very strong cash. So we're not seeing any impacts from any credit issues whatsoever if they are out in the market and demand from our customers is if anything strengthening versus what it was 1/4 ago.
Wamsi Mohan
So to clarify there, Luis, when you say leading AI companies that you're offering to AI labs over there,
Louise Brittain
We sell to everybody in our business. We sell to hyperscalers, we sell to model makers, we sell to everybody.
Wamsi Mohan
OK, Thanks, Luis. And then just on linearity in the quarter, it, it seems like receivables picked up a little bit. Is that something that we should expect because of payment terms as more bits go under NBM or was there something else in the quarter?
Louise Brittain
No, we basically saw a little bit of a change in customer mix and that has a little bit of an impact on our receivables a little bit only near Ed, but it's mostly customer mix.
Wamsi Mohan
OK, thank you so much.
Operator
Thanks Wamsi. Our next question comes from Amit Daryani from Evercore. Please go ahead with your question.
Amit Daryani
Yep, thanks a lot too as well. I guess David, just to start with on the capital allocation side, you know as you transition towards becoming a more predictable NBM driven business model, does that change how you think about your capital structure? And you know, historically adding memories perceived to be more cyclical. So balance sheet flexibility has been important. But you know, as you become structurally, I think less cyclical, would that support a willingness take on leverage and potentially excrete the capital returns? Or is it comfort still with, you know, the five billion 1/4 buyback, which is fairly impressive? I'm just wondering at what point do you say we can take on more leverage and take advantage of the fact that we're less cyclical?
David Goeckeler
Yeah, I mean, we're, that we put a financial model out. I mean, we just talked, we just spent 3 1/2 hours talking about this in our Analyst Day and we committed to a financial model through the end of the, you know, through 2030, which I think was pretty impressive and we plan to execute that and we're very comfortable with the strategy we have of staying debt free, very strong balance sheet and then returning, you know, investing in our business, we have a growing business and lots of opportunities for internal innovation which we're going to continue to invest in like HBF and 3D matrix memory in addition to the Bix road map and all the great products we build. And after we do that, we're going to return 100% of the cash flow to shareholders and that's the plan and we're going to go execute that for the foreseeable future. And so we get up at another point and tell you we're going to change it. But there I, I don't anticipate that. I don't anticipate that happening in any kind of near term timeframe.
Amit Daryani
Fair enough. And then, you know, maybe just an HPF and rather try to ask you to frame how big this time could be. Could you just talk about what the scaling variable really is over here as inference models and context windows expand, should we think HPF capacity will grow in line to GPU compute or potentially faster? And I think you said you'll start initial sampling in, in '27. What's it what are the key milestones from there to becoming a meaningful revenue ramp as well? Thank you.
David Goeckeler
Well, I mean, so it's a little early for your first question, but on the second question, the, the, the we get to die back. You know, we have the base die which we'll tape out, which is the controller. We'll put it, you know, we'll put them together, put it in customers hands and then they start to see how the products going to work in their infrastructure. You know, we've obviously done a lot of modeling on that, but actually having the actual product and then doing the integration work that will then lead that kind of feedback from the customer will then lead to be able to start to answer some of the questions that people have. Like what's the market opportunity? How fast is it going to happen? What's the TAM, where exactly is the architecture going to fit? You know, we're going to follow our customers on that, but the big step is to actually put a product in their hands. And then that leads to a whole another set of conversations with them where we actually have the device that we're at that we're instead of running simulations, we're seeing exactly how it performs in their infrastructure and does it deliver the results of what they're expecting. And you know, we'll also, that also helps you continue to expand the set of use cases, right? At this point in the development process, you want to be a little bit careful, you don't engage too much because you're overwhelmed your engineering team with 1000 ideas of how the product can be used. So as we get actually, as we get an actual device that we can put in people's hands, we can open the aperture on those kind of conversations, which will I think will lead to more use cases for the product. But that that's still TBD. So I think a lot of things start to happen when you get to that next milestone of actually having a real product you can that people can start to use and understand how it impacts what they're trying to do, which is deliver a world class inference architecture at the best cost point possible. And we think this is a fantastic technology for doing that. But you know, we'll see when we get there and we produce it.
Amit Daryani
Perfect, Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini from SIG. Please go ahead with your question.
Mehdi Hosseini
Yes, thanks for taking my question. David, I want to go back to sorry for the audio. David, I want to go back to what you said earlier. You said that AI inferencing is being refined having an impact and more SLC needed. And my question to you is, is this having an adverse impact on adoption of TLC or the growth of TLC or SLC is additive to the big demand by TLC and QLC?
David Goeckeler
No, I don't, I don't think it's a cannibalization of other NAND products. I think it's an expansion of the TAM into areas that you need. You need a different attribute to the technology you need. You need different endurance, you need different performance and you know, we can take our product and we can run anything out of the fab in an SLC mode. So there's a lot of flexibility in the product and I think our people are discovering that and starting to understand how can I apply this in ways where I get the attributes I want for the problem I'm trying to solve. So it's just a more refined view of the architecture, but I don't see it as cannibalizing other parts of the NAND stack. If anything, I see it as you know. And I want to be careful on this because it's still early, but it's, you know, is it good enough to replace places where I'm using DRAM, right? Can I get enough endurance? Can I get enough performance if I run NAND in an SLC mode? Because the cost differential is like, you know, huge 20 to 40 X. So I, I take it as a very healthy sign on many ways. Mehdi, is that very real about how you scale an architecture? When you scale an architecture, you got to do it the most cost effective way possible. And again, NAND is the most scalable semiconductor technology. And so it doesn't surprise me that people are finding more ways to use it. In many ways, I think scalable technologies kind of attract TAM and I think that that's what's happening here is, is these architectures are getting more detailed and more refined.
Mehdi Hosseini
OK, let me come out from a different angle. And if there is this demand for more enduring SLC and as customers wait for commercialization of HBS, what is the JV flexibility in adding some SLC capacity to meet that short term demand?
David Goeckeler
No, we don't. I mean we don't there is no, I mean I wouldn't think of it as SLC capacity. You can take any, you can take any. Our cells are flexible enough that we can run them in whatever mode we want SLC MLC TLC so we can supply the market with the wafers we have, right. That's how we think about it. And you know, we're, I understand the question of wanting to go to the supply question right away, but it's just like super early for that. These are just conversations at this point and customers exploring how they can use the technology, you know, starting to get some idea of what their demand would be if they use it this way. Something to keep your eye on. It will impact the market. There's no doubt about that because SLC is a little bit of SLC, a lot of QLC, but more, I guess, more to come. Mehdi.
Mehdi Hosseini
OK, got it. Thank you. Thanks for all the details.
Operator
And at this point, ladies and gentlemen, we'll be ending today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.
David Goeckeler
All right, everyone, thanks for joining us on the call. We appreciate it. Great conversation and we look forward to seeing you throughout the quarter. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. And with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
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