Apple officially changes leadership; the first foldable iPhone may be unveiled! Is a return to a $5 trillion market cap just around the corner?

Apple officially changes leadership, and the market responds with gains. The three major US indices closed lower overnight, with clear divergence in the performance of the 'Mag 7', while $Apple (AAPL.US)$it bucked the trend with a 2.61% surge, adding $120 billion to its market cap in a single session.The core catalyst behind this counter-trend rally may lie in:Apple's official leadership changeandthe upcoming Apple Fall Event in 2026 next week.What new surprises will new CEO Ternus bring in his debut event? Could the market cap return to $5 trillion around the event? This article will break it down step by step.

New leader takes charge! Will next week's Apple event be 'extraordinary'?

On September 1, Tim Cook, who led Apple for 15 years, officially stepped back to become Executive Chairman, while former Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering John Ternus officially took over as Apple's CEO.

On his first day in office, Tenus not only quickly launched his Weibo account, gaining 27,000 followers with a simple "Hello" and trending on the hot search list; what excited the market even more was that he mentioned inhis first internal letter to all employees that next week's major product launch would be "extraordinary."For the hardware chief, known for his rigorous style, to use such strong language in his inaugural all-staff memo is enough to signal that the strength of this hardware product should not be underestimated.

At 1:00 AM Hong Kong time on September 10, Apple will hold its Fall 2026 event, themed "Surprise and shine."The promotional copy already hints at the significance of this event: it marks Ternus's first public appearance and could also unveil Apple's first foldable iPhone.

According to multiple media reports, this event has several "extraordinary" highlights:

- The first foldable iPhone：The event may officially launch the long-rumored first foldable iPhone from Apple.This marks Apple's most significant innovation in product form factor since the debut of the original iPhone, and is a long-awaited"super catalyst"for the capital markets. It is reported thatApple's first foldable iPhone may be named "iPhone Ultra," with market consensus expecting a price range of $2,000 to $2,500.Apple is not a pioneer in foldable phones, but if it can deliver a superior user experience, it may have the opportunity to replicate the "late mover advantage" trajectory seen with the Apple Watch, thereby opening up a new high-end incremental market for Apple.

- iPhone 18 Pro Series：This fall's launch event willbreak from the tradition of launching the entire lineup simultaneously, with expectations that only two premium models, the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, will be released.The standard iPhone 18 may be deferred until the spring 2027 launch event. The new models are expected to feature the upgraded A20 series chips, along with significant improvements in imaging, battery life, and other areas.

- Apple Watch and AirPods Updates：As customary accessories for Apple's autumn launch event, companion devices such as the Apple Watch Series 12 and AirPods 5 are expected to be unveiled simultaneously.

Against the backdrop of intensifying AI competition where terminal entry points are increasingly critical, the market is paying closer attention to whether Apple can retell its AI story through hardware innovation. Next week's event could be a pivotal "breakthrough battle" for Apple in the dual arenas of AI and hardware innovation.

Apple's new product launches have historically seen stocks dip before rising? This time might be different.

"Apple's stock price often falls on the day of its launch event, only to rebound afterward" has become a common piece of wisdom among many Apple investors.Historical data shows that Apple's stock mostly closed lower on the days of past iPhone launches, but generally recovered and continued to rise over the following months.There is sound market logic behind this "curse": market expectations are pushed to highs before the event, leading to profit-taking once the news breaks; however, actual product sales and ecosystem benefits only reflect in financial reports after one or two quarters. Simply put, short-term capital tends to "buy the rumor, sell the fact," while long-term capital aims to "buy into the product cycle and earn from ecosystem dividends."

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However, this autumn launch event has its unique characteristics, with the simultaneous presence of"New CEO's debut + anticipation for the first foldable screen"two major variables.

Historical experience suggests that leadership changes themselves have a relatively limited short-term impact on stock prices, with the market focusing more on whether the new strategy can be effectively implemented.However, as a completely new product form factor, the foldable iPhone has the potential to break the public's "aesthetic fatigue" regarding Apple launch events. If pricing is reasonable and production inventory is sufficient, the valuation premium granted by the market may last longer than in previous launches.Conversely, if the foldable model is priced too high or mass production falls short of expectations, the pressure for a pullback on launch day and in the subsequent period should not be underestimated.

In light of this launch event, we advise fellow investors not to view the price movement (up or down) on launch day as a binary choice. Instead, focus on signals such as the foldable's pricing, inventory levels, and market feedback. These factors will determine whether Apple's stock price will "continue its upward trend after a minor pullback" or "open high and move lower, requiring more time to digest gains" over the coming months.

Market cap returning to $5 trillion is just around the corner! What are institutional investors' views?

Apple's current stock price is quoted at325.13US Dollar,There is still approximately 6% upside potential from the all-time high; breaking through previous highs and seeing the market cap return to $5 trillion is within close reach., next week's autumn launch event could serve as a core catalyst, with the first foldable iPhone being the key variable.

Research firm IDC predicts thatthe much-anticipated Apple foldable iPhone could see shipments exceed 10 million units in its first year on the market, accounting for 40% of all foldable device shipments by 2027.Relevant analysts stated that even if the selling price reaches as high as $2,500,This Apple foldable phone still has the potential to be a major success.

Analysts at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley pointed outThe timing of the new product launch will determine how much revenue from the foldable phone can be recognized in Apple's fiscal year 2026 results.Bank of America cautioned that the gross margin of the first foldable device could pressure the profit margin growth momentum Apple has relied on from its services business over the past three years; any margin dilution caused by high-end hardware costs should be closely monitored. Morgan Stanley believes that high-end foldable phones could serve as an upgrade catalyst for Apple's high-value customers without cannibalizing core sales of traditional iPhones.

Analysts at Rothschild & Co. also noted that Apple's entry into the ultra-premium foldable phone market could push the average selling price (ASP) of the iPhone up by 11% before June 2027; they project foldable iPhone sales could reach 14 million units in fiscal year 2027, with only a 2% cannibalization rate of traditional iPhone sales.

As of September 1, Wall Street institutions' consensusaverage target price for Apple is approximately $347, leaving some room for upside compared to the current price.

Considering the special context of this launch event and Apple's stock performance in the 60 days following previous launches:If you are bullish on the stock price being driven by the first foldable phone, or have a long-term positive outlook on Apple's future performance, consider establishing a position. $Apple (AAPL.US)$underlying stock、in relevant leveraged long ETFs（ $Direxion Daily AAPL Bull 2X Shares (AAPU.US)$$GraniteShares 2x Long AAPL Daily ETF (AAPB.US)$$T-Rex 2X Long Apple Daily Target ETF (AAPX.US)$$Leverage Shares 2X Long AAPL Daily ETF (AAPE.US)$$Corgi AAPL 2x Daily ETF (IOSX.US)$）, you can also choose tobuy call optionsorSell put options. In addition to Apple itself,the Apple supply chainis also worth watching. NiuNiu has previously compiled a list of companies related to the Apple supply chain for fellow investors' reference.

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If one believes that the stock price weakness is due to foldable phone pricing or market feedback falling short of expectations, there are also options in the marketrelevant leveraged inverse ETFs（ $Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares (AAPD.US)$ ) orPut optionfor investors to choose from.

Final thoughts

Apple's change in leadership marks both the end of an era and the beginning of another. Over 15 years, Tim Cook led Apple from a $350 billion market cap to $5 trillion. Now, the baton is passed to this "product person" with a background in hardware engineering. The Apple fall event on September 10 serves as the new CEO's first report card.For us, the key focus is whether the foldable iPhone can become Apple's next blockbuster product, and whether the AI narrative can transition from mere "storytelling" to tangible results in financial reports.

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