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US Stock Market Talk | The Fed Resumes Rate Hikes After a Three-Year Pause! Is a New Shift Ahead for
Lucas美股机会
joined discussion · Sep 2 18:48

Multiple pressures from US-Iran tensions and hawkish signals! The market shifts into a defensive phase; trading strategies for the memory storage sector

First, let's discussthe current broader market environment.In fact, in recent days, there hasn't been muchpositive news for US stocks.
1,The conflict between the US and Iranhas escalated again. Secondly, last week,Kevin WarshAt the Jackson Hole meeting, relatively hawkishsignals were released again,3. Currentinflationlevels remain high; 4. Market expectations for a renewedexpectations of interest rate hikesprobability in September continue to rise. $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ Therefore, from a purely fundamental perspective,these four pieces of news almost entirelycreate downward pressure on high-valuationtech stocks.Quite interesting.The key point lies precisely here,That's a lotweighed down by bearish news, the Nasdaqdid not experience an extreme short-term drop,so currently, this marketI would not simply define it as a comprehensive shift to bearishness,because based ontechnical indicators and the performance of core stocks,there is currently nosign of panic-driven capital outflows,but asThe VIX indexhas started to rise,Hot thematic stocksare gradually cooling off,With so many macroeconomic headwinds,a more accurate definition now would bethe market is shifting from an offensivephase graduallyinto a cautiousphase, so todayBefore discussing any specific stocks,I would liketo first clarify the issue of position sizing.If your current overall portfolio exposurehas already reached around 50%,i.e., a half-position, I believe it is unnecessary at this stageto immediately add to your position just because a particular stockhas dropped by 5% or 10%,making it seem cheap,and rushing to increase your holdings.First, keep cashon hand and wait for the market to truly restart, orwait for the indices and core tech stocksto give a moredefinitive signal of stabilizing declinesbefore consideringadding to your position at lower levels. This will make your trading more flexible, butif you currently hold only 20-30%of your position, or are even mostly in cash, thenwhen panic emerges in the marketat this point, insteadwe can start looking for stocks with solid earnings performance, withclear industrial logic, withand strong fundamental supportas core holdings to initiate positions.
Next, let's return to the main tech theme and first take a look atStorageyesterday, the memory chip sectoralthough its performance was mediocre,there was actually noticeable buying support during the session,
1 $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ SanDisk and Micron bothA gradual upward trend has emergedespecially SanDiskafter being included in the relevant MSCI indices, it inherentlywill drive greater demand for passive capital allocation in the futureIn the short term, memory/storagemay not necessarily be the sector with the highest market elasticity,But ifbut looking at Q3 and Q4,the certainty of earnings performanceleads me to still believe that within the current AI technology theme,it is the segment with the highest degree of confirmationIf you already participated in SanDisk near last week's low,around $1,450, consider taking profits at $1,600.Execute a profit-taking move.If you already reduced your position yesterdayaround $1,600, SanDisk's currentremaining positionis still in profit. Currently,continue to hold the remaining core position.There is no need to churn your portfolio back and forth,because the entireThe storage sector has not experienced a high-volume breakdown.$SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ Those holding core positions in SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk at low levels can still patiently hold their shares and wait for gains. $Micron Technology (MU.US)$
The next article will share views on LITE, MRVL, and BE. $Lumentum (LITE.US)$$Bloom Energy (BE.US)$$Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$
Let’s start by discussingthe current broader market environment, in fact, there haven’t been manypositive catalysts for US stocks in recent days, 1,US-Iran tensionshave escalated again. Secondly, last weekKevin Warshsignaled a relatively hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole meetingHawkish signals, 3. Currently,inflationremain at elevated levels, 4. Market expectations for a restart in Septemberexpectations of interest rate hikesare also continuing to heat up. $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ Therefore, from a purely fundamental perspective,these four pieces of news almost entirelyconstitute downward pressure on high-valuationtech stocks.,What is quite interestingis precisely this point,That's a lotweighed down by bearish factors, the Nasdaqdid not experience an extreme short-term decline, so at this point in the marketI would not simply define it as a comprehensive shift to bearish sentiment, because based ontechnical indicators and the performance of core stocks, there has not yet beensuch panic-driven capital outflows, but with theVIX indexStarting to rise,Hot themesare gradually cooling off,Macro headwindsare so numerous, so a more accurate definition now should bethe market is shifting from an offensivephase graduallyinto a cautiousphase, so todaybefore discussing any stocks, I wantto first clarify the issue of position sizing, if your current overall positionhas already reached around 50%, which means you are half-invested, I believe there is no need at this stage,just because a particular stock has droppedby 5% or 10%,and you feel it is now cheap,to immediately add to your position.First, keep your cashHold your positions and wait for the market to truly restart, orwait for the indices and core tech stocksto provide more...
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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