AI hardware stocks are bottoming out and building momentum; how to effectively manage expectations for the September rate hike?

On September 1, all three major indices fell—$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$down 0.71%,$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$down 1.29%,$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$down 0.79%.The fundamental reason isescalating US-Iran tensions,$Brent Last Day Financial Futures (DEC6) (BZmain.US)$Breaking through the $90 mark, $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$Rising over 4.8%, $U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield (US30Y.BD)$approaching 5.3%triggered by several key events,the market's repricing of rate hike expectations for the September FOMC meeting.Compounded by Waller's overall hawkish tone at Jackson Hole last week, panic over a September rate hike began to spread.

However, rate hikes have never been event-driven,but rather data-dependent.Next, this article will review one by onethe core variables ahead of the September FOMC meeting, and analyze current market trends and key levels from a technical perspective.

1. Overview of Key Events to Watch in September

Ahead of the September FOMC meeting, there are four core variables worth paying close attention to.

First isOn September 3 (US time), Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver a speech on the US economic and inflation outlook.The market will use this opportunity to gauge whether Waller's hawkish stance can gain substantial resonance among voting members,If the rhetoric remains consistently hawkish, the probability of a rate hike may further increase.

Secondly, the August Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled for release on September 4, is the first decisive data point,If the data remains weak, it will effectively dampen rate hike expectations in the short term; conversely, strong data would have the opposite effect;

Finally,the August CPI data, due on September 11, will be the final piece of the puzzle,and a key milestone for the market to fully price in final rate hike expectations before the FOMC meeting.

2. AI Hardware: Bottoming Out and Building Momentum

$PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$ Having corrected more than 20% from its June highs,it is currently forming a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern near the support zone around 11,000. The 50-day moving average serves as the bull-bear dividing line; a decisive breakout above it would open up upside potential.

South Korea's memory chip duopoly $SK Hynix (000660.KR)$$Samsung Electronics (005930.KR)$ shows high correlation with the SOX Index, both exhibiting large-scale inverse head-and-shoulders structures.

SK Hynix's stock price continues to trade below the 60-day EMA (1,760,229 KRW),with both short-term and medium-term momentum leaning bearish. Key support levels to watch below include the recent short-term low area at 1,557,000 KRW and the strong support at 1,246,000 KRW, formed by the 60-day range low.

Samsung has entered a short-term consolidation and bottoming phase,with its stock price also remaining below the 60-day EMA (263,789 KRW).The first support level to monitor is around 245,000 KRW,which represents a dense cluster of lows tested on August 25 and August 31, offering some support significance. If this level breaks down,the dual support formed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 228,854 KRW and the lower Bollinger Band at 226,983 KRW will provide a stronger buffer.

3. Summary

Whether there will be a rate hike in Septemberis fundamentally a data-driven question, not a matter of stance.Wall Street is managing expectations; the remaining answers will come from the Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI data.

The correction in the AI hardware sector is technical rather than structural, and the fundamental logic supporting the memory supercycle remains intact.The SOX Index and Korea's two memory chip giants are showing synchronized potential inverse head-and-shoulders patterns, providing a clear signal:A breakout above the 50-day moving average would signal a bull-bear reversal; otherwise, the correction period will be prolonged.

Instead of succumbing to 'rate hike panic,' investors should manage their positions prudently ahead of the key data releases and follow the trend once signals are confirmed.

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