US Stock Market Chat | This Week’s Two Key Focuses: US CPI and Apple Event
All three major indices fell in unison, with the Dow Jones breaking below its 50-day moving average: Apple rose against the trend, DELL rebounded after hours; here is how I would position myself in US stocks like NVDA, Tesla, and CRWD.
On the first trading day of September, the US stock market didn't just experience a normal correction; instead, the market is recalculating risks associated with "rising oil prices + surging bond yields + increased odds of rate hikes."
The Dow fell 0.79%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.71%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.03%. Oil prices surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, while the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to approximately 4.79%. The market now sees a significantly higher probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September. Energy was one of the few sectors to rise, but consumer discretionary, transportation, and high-valuation tech stocks faced pressure.
My answer is straightforward:
All three major indices have weakened in the short term, but we haven't reached full-blown panic yet. I won't chase put options on the first day of a decline, nor will I immediately buy calls just because of a 1% drop. For a technical confirmation of a rebound, the Dow needs to reclaim its 50-day moving average, the S&P 500 needs to get back above 7,680, and the Nasdaq 100 needs to recover the 29,400–29,600 range.
Regarding individual stocks, the ones I'm most willing to wait for entry points on are: Apple, Alphabet, PANW, ANET, and SCHW; the ones I definitely want to avoid catching falling knives on are: Tesla, AMD, TLN, MRVL, COIN, and SNOWDELL's earnings were strong, but with an ~8% rebound in after-hours trading, I would avoid chasing the stock when it gaps up at the open.
Let's look at the three major indices: The biggest risk this time isn't a 1% drop, but the fact that bond yields haven't stopped rising.
① Dow Jones Industrial Average $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ : Officially broke below the 50-day moving average, issuing the earliest warning signal among the three indices.
The Dow closed at approximately 52,767, down 419 points. The most significant technical change is that the index fell below its 50-day moving average at around 52,850, marking the first breach of this average in nearly five months.
I will set:
52,500: First support level.
52,000: Second support level.
52,850–53,000: First resistance level.
53,200: Second resistance level.
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average fails to reclaim the 52,850–53,000 range, I will view any rebound merely as a technical pullback following the breakdown below the moving averages. If it falls further below 52,500, the weakness is likely to extend down to 52,000.
Regarding products, I would not use bull contracts with a call price of 52,100 and a cushion of less than 1.5% to speculate on a rebound. A more reasonable choice would be bull contracts with a call price around 50,000–51,000, a cushion of approximately 3.4%–5.3%, and leverage of about 13–18x.
If you are bearish, bear contracts with a call price near 56,000, a cushion of about 6%, and leverage of approximately 23x are healthier than those with a call price of 55,000, a cushion of about 4.2%, and leverage exceeding 30x. Another option is put warrants expiring in December, with a strike price near 48,000 and an effective leverage of about 13x.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,631.47, with an intraday low of 7,611.20. The index has already fallen below its 50-day moving average (around 7,681) and its 200-day moving average (around 7,644), shifting the short-term technical structure from sideways consolidation to a weaker stance.
My key levels are:
7,600: First support.
7,500: Second support.
7,680–7,700: First resistance.
7,750 points: Second resistance level.
If the 7,600-point level holds, there is still a chance for a technical rebound; however, I will not turn bullish again unless it reclaims the 7,700-point level. If 7,600 is broken, the next key level to watch is 7,500, rather than rushing to guess the bottom.
For those betting on a rebound, I prefer bull contracts with a call price of 6,900–7,000 points (approximately 8%–10% away from the current level) and leverage of around 8–9x, rather than high-leverage bull contracts with a call price of 7,300 points (only about 4.4% away).
On the bearish side, bear contracts with a call price of 8,200 points (approximately 7.4% away) and leverage of around 19x are more reasonable than products with a call price of 8,000 points (less than 5% away) and leverage of around 28x. For put warrants, consider those expiring in December with strike prices of 6,600–6,700 points and effective leverage of approximately 12x.
③ Nasdaq 100 $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ : The downtrend is most pronounced, but the first support level begins at 29,000 points.
The Nasdaq 100 closed at approximately 29,077 points, down about 1.29%. It is currently trading below its 5-day moving average (29,423), 20-day moving average (29,593), and 50-day moving average (29,382). The RSI(14) is around 45.7, indicating it is not yet oversold, but momentum has clearly weakened.
My watchlist:
29,000 points: First support level.
28,500–28,100 points: Second support level.
29,380–29,450 points: First resistance level.
29,600: Second resistance level.
Therefore, near the 29,000 level, I will not chase bear contracts, nor will I buy bull contracts before seeing a rebound. The rebound structure only begins to take shape if the index reclaims 29,450. If 29,000 is broken, we must prepare for the possibility of testing 28,500 again.
For bull contracts, consider those with call prices between 26,500 and 27,000, a distance of approximately 7% to 9%, and leverage of about 8.5x to 10x. For a bearish view, consider bear contracts with call prices between 31,500 and 32,000, a distance of approximately 8% to 10%, and leverage of about 14x to 18x.
If using warrants, I would prefer Call warrants expiring next March with a strike price around 30,500 and leverage of approximately 7.5x, rather than deep out-of-the-money Call warrants expiring in December with strike prices above 35,000.
① Apple (AAPL) $Apple (AAPL.US)$ : Rose 2.6% against the market trend, but new options positions do not fully confirm this move.
Apple rose to $325.13, becoming one of the few strong performers amid the broader market decline. The market is pricing in a management transition: John Ternus officially succeeds Tim Cook as CEO, while Cook transitions to Executive Chairman. The issue is not Cook's departure, but whether the new management can close Apple's lag in AI and Siri.
Technically, the stock price is above its 5-day moving average at approximately $317.9, 20-day moving average at $311.3, and 50-day moving average at $312.9. The RSI(14) is around 61, indicating strength but not yet extreme overbought conditions.
Support: $318 and $312.
Resistance: $327 and $335.
The net directional exposure of single-leg options is approximately +$8.98 million, but the net change in open interest is approximately -$1.62 million. This indicates that overall trading sentiment is bullish, but new capital inflows have not fully caught up.
There are Call options expiring in early October with a strike price of $300, offering an effective leverage of about 11x and an implied volatility (IV) of around 29%. The terms are not expensive, but with expiration approaching, they are only suitable for short-term trades. If the price falls below $312, I will cancel my bullish outlook.
② NVIDIA (NVDA) $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ : AI demand has not disappeared, but options data does not provide a consistent signal.
NVIDIA dropped 1.5% to $217.44. Fundamentals remain supported: Anthropic signed a cloud computing agreement worth approximately $35 billion, involving data centers and computing power supply chains backed by NVIDIA's partner Lambda; Dell also raised its AI server revenue forecast.
Technically, the stock price is below the 5-day moving average of $218.7 and the 20-day moving average of $219, but remains above the 50-day moving average of $208.8. The RSI is around 52, indicating a neutral stance.
Support levels: $215 and $209.
Resistance levels: $220 and $225.
The net directional exposure for options is only about +$0.62 million, with a net change in open interest of approximately -$0.13 million. This clearly indicates a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, rather than a consensus bullish sentiment from capital flows.
The December $275 Call offers effective leverage of about 8x with an IV of around 42%, but the strike price is still significantly out-of-the-money; the $168 Put has leverage of about 6.9x and an IV of around 48%. I will wait for the stock price to reclaim $220 before considering Calls, and will only turn formally bearish if it breaks below $209.
Tesla closed at $356.09, down 3.2%. On the same day, Amazon's Zoox and Alphabet's Waymo announced expansions of their Robotaxi services to new cities, indicating that Tesla is facing not just a technological race, but also a race in commercialization speed.
The stock price remains above the 20-day moving average of $342.6, but is hovering near the 5-day moving average of $354.7 and the 50-day moving average of $358.8.
Support: $353 and $342.
Resistance: $359–$366 and $380.
Net directional flow in options was approximately -$1.49 million, but there were no clear bearish opening positions. Therefore, we can only advise short-term caution; it is insufficient to claim that institutions are broadly positioning for a downturn.
The October $490 calls in the market have an effective leverage of about 15x and an IV of around 55%; being out-of-the-money and short-dated, I would avoid them. The December $330 puts have a leverage of about 4.6x, with a relatively easier-to-understand cost structure. As Tesla has not broken above $366, I am not chasing calls.
④ Alphabet $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ : Robotaxi has made tangible progress, but the stock price remains below all short-term moving averages.
Alphabet fell 1.3% to $335.02. Waymo is expanding its autonomous driving services to Denver, San Diego, and Tampa, demonstrating commercialization progress that is significantly more tangible than many Robotaxi companies that remain purely conceptual.
The net directional options flow for GOOG and GOOGL combined is approximately +$4.88 million, with a net increase in bullish positions of about +$0.93 million, representing a relatively positive signal among large-cap tech stocks.
Technically, the stock price remains below the 5-day MA at $340.7, the 20-day MA at $346.4, and the 50-day MA at $348.9, with an RSI of approximately 41.
Support: $333 and $325.
Resistance: $341 and $346–$349.
The December $470 Call has an effective leverage of approximately 10.5x and an IV of around 38.5%. The main issue is that the strike price is too far out-of-the-money. Even if the stock rebounds from $335 to $350, this Call could still suffer from time decay. I would wait for a close above $341 and a breakout above $349 to confirm a genuine strengthening trend.
⑤ Microsoft (MSFT) $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ : Single-leg options are skewed bullish, but significant capital is flowing into multi-leg strategies.
Microsoft dropped 1.2% to $501.02. Single-leg options totaled approximately $1.72 million, almost entirely bullish, with a net increase in bullish positions of about $1.08 million. However, multi-leg trades reached approximately $154.64 million, far exceeding single-leg volume, indicating that institutions are primarily deploying capital through spreads, hedging, or roll-over strategies, so it cannot be directly interpreted as massive bullish betting.
Technically, the stock price is approaching the 5-day MA at $504.7 and remains above the 20-day MA at $494.7, with an RSI of approximately 64.
Support: $500 and $495.
Resistance: $506 and $515.
Although the October-expiring call with a $450 strike is already in-the-money with leverage of approximately 6.3x, its implied volatility (IV) is around 48% and time to expiration is short. I view this strictly as a short-term instrument and would not hold it for several weeks. A drop below $495 would invalidate the rebound setup.
Broadcom dipped 0.2% to $369.68, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq. The stock price is approaching its 5-day moving average at $367.2 and 200-day moving average at $369.6, but remains below its 20-day moving average at $387.5 and 50-day moving average at $384.8.
Support: $362 and $350.
Resistance: $372 and $385–$388.
The December $380 call has an effective leverage of approximately 5.2x and IV of around 54%; the $280 put has leverage of about 6.2x and IV of around 55%. Although the call strike is close to the underlying stock price, the IV already reflects significant volatility. I will wait for a breakout above $372 before considering entry; a true strengthening requires reclaiming $385.
⑦ Palantir $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ Options sentiment is bullish, but short-term calls are battling against time decay.
Palantir fell 3.5% to $179.92. Net directional options flow was approximately +$2.46 million, but there was no clear confirmation of new bullish positions.
The stock price is below the 5-day moving average of $183.2 but remains above the 20-day moving average of $174.9; RSI is around 62, indicating the trend is not completely broken.
Support: $179 and $175.
Resistance: $183–$186 and $192.
The early October $200 call offers an effective leverage of about 10x with an IV of roughly 51%; given the short time to expiration and high volatility, this product requires the underlying stock to rise quickly and is not suitable for a passive wait-and-see approach. If it breaks below $175, I will no longer bet on a rebound; I will turn bullish again only if it breaks above $186.
⑧ Micron (MU) $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Earnings are strong, but strike risks from labor unions make stock selection more difficult.
Micron dropped 2.7% to $933.44. ** union workers, numbering nearly 10,000, are threatening to strike over disputes regarding the bonus system. As Taiwan is Micron's largest production base, this event could impact DRAM and HBM supply.
Technically, the stock price is below the 5-day moving average of $939.8 and the 50-day moving average of $945.9, but it is still holding near the 20-day moving average of $929.4, with an RSI of around 50.
Support: $923 and $900.
Resistance: $946 and $970.
The overall directional bias and new positioning in options are nearly balanced. The implied volatility (IV) for Hong Kong-listed calls is around 83%, while puts are closer to 92%, making both bullish and bearish bets very expensive. My conclusion is:The underlying stock is worth watching, but warrants are not worth forcing a trade at this time.
⑨ AMD $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ : The underlying stock has not stopped falling, so out-of-the-money calls are even less attractive to buy.
AMD fell 2.3% to $459.61, dropping below its 5-day MA ($470.7), 20-day MA ($478.4), and 50-day MA ($502.9). The RSI is around 44.
Support: $452 and $440.
Resistance: $471 and $478.
The December $700 call in the market has an effective leverage of about 5.6x and an IV of around 65%. With the underlying stock failing to reclaim $471, betting on a rise to near $700 using high-IV products offers poor risk-reward. I am staying out for now; I will only reassess if it climbs back above $478.
⑩ Amazon $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ : The Robotaxi narrative has potential, but short-term call options are only suitable for quick trades.
Amazon fell 1.9% to $254.92. Zoox's expansion into Houston and San Diego demonstrates that Amazon still holds option value in the autonomous driving sector, but the short-term stock price remains weighed down by valuation pressures on tech stocks.
The stock price is below the 5-day moving average of $259.5 and the 20-day moving average of $264.6, but remains above the 50-day moving average of $252.4.
Support: $252 and $245.
Resistance: $260 and $265.
There are call options in the market expiring on September 21 with a strike price of $245, offering an effective leverage of approximately 11x and an implied volatility (IV) of around 35%. Although the product is already in-the-money, with less than a month to expiration, time decay will accelerate rapidly. I will wait for the price to reclaim $260 before engaging in short-term trading, and will cancel the trade if it breaks below $252.
US stocks worth discussing more today
DELL $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$ : Earnings were stronger than pre-market option positioning suggested, but I am not chasing the post-market gap up.
DELL fell 6.9% to $425 during regular trading hours, but rebounded approximately 8% in after-hours trading after reporting earnings and raising full-year revenue and profit forecasts. The company increased its fiscal 2027 AI server revenue forecast from $60 billion to $74 billion, and raised its full-year revenue forecast to $192 billion. Q2 revenue of $47 billion and EPS of $7.04 both exceeded expectations.
Multi-leg option trades totaled approximately $42.1 million, significantly higher than the ~$1.81 million for single-leg trades. Moreover, these trades occurred before the earnings announcement and cannot be interpreted as a market reaction to the results.
If the price stabilizes between $455 and $460 in after-hours trading, it will have reclaimed both the 5-day and 20-day moving averages. Support levels are at $450 and $434, while resistance lies at $472 and $500. My strategy is to wait and see if the gap holds, rather than chasing the stock after an 8% surge in after-hours trading.
CRWD$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ : The news is positive, yet the options activity shows one of the cleanest bearish openings today.
CrowdStrike assisted US and European law enforcement agencies in dismantling the Sality botnet, which had been operating for over 20 years, demonstrating its technical capabilities; however, the stock price fell 6.9% to $215.07.
More notably, in the options market: the net directional flow was approximately -$4.17 million, with new net bearish positions around -$3.35 million, including several active purchases of Put options expiring on September 4.
The stock price remains slightly above the 20-day moving average at $210.6, with an RSI of approximately 55. Support is seen at $212 and $210, while resistance is at $225 and $231.Positive news fails to drive the stock price up, coupled with bearish positioning, I will not catch the falling knife at $215. I will only cancel my bearish outlook if the price decisively stands back above $225.
PANW $Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$ : Strong earnings and bullish options sentiment, yet the stock price dropped 5.2%.
Palo Alto Networks reported earnings better than expected and acquired the AI-native platform Console, resulting in positive fundamental news. The net directional flow in options was approximately +$3.09 million, with new net bullish positions around +$1.60 million.
However, the stock price fell to $362.09, breaking below the 5-day moving average at $367.6 and the 20-day moving average at $368.4. Support is at $350 and $347, while resistance is at $368 and $384.
This is a classic case of "bullish news and options sentiment, but unconfirmed by stock price." I will wait for a recovery above $368; if it breaks below $347, the bullish options signal is invalidated.
ANET $Arista Networks (ANET.US)$ : The new options positioning looks strong, but the stock price hasn't broken out yet.
ANET fell 3.3% to $189.26, but net bullish options flow was approximately +$4.50 million, primarily driven by aggressive selling of long-dated Puts, with volume far exceeding existing open interest.
The stock price is below the 5-day MA at $196.7 and the 20-day MA at $194.9, but remains above the 50-day MA at $181.3; RSI is around 50.
Support levels are seen at $188 and $181; resistance levels are at $195–$197 and $205.I like the options structure, but I won't chase the stock just because someone is selling Puts; a move back above $195 is needed for technical confirmation.
SLB $SLB Ltd (SLB.US)$ : Despite a sharp rise in oil prices, it still fell 5%; options actually signaled the risk in advance.
Oil prices surged due to Middle East conflicts, but SLB fell 4.9% to $57.15. Single-leg options turnover was approximately $143.95 million, with nearly 99.5% marked as bearish, concentrated mainly in the aggressive selling of September $42.5 Calls.
However, these trades lack clear opening position markers and may include closing positions or covered calls, so we cannot directly claim that $143 million in capital is shorting.
Technically, the stock price remains above the 5-day MA at $56.6, the 20-day MA at $53.8, and the 50-day MA at $50.2, with an RSI of approximately 63. Support lies at $56.5 and $53.8, while resistance is between $60 and $61. As long as $56.5 holds, I view any dip as profit-taking at highs; a break below this level would signal a formal weakening trend.
TLN fell 0.7% to $293.73, with net option flow at approximately -$25.69 million, driven mainly by aggressive buying of the December $370 puts.
Technically, the stock price is below the 5-day MA at $299.3, the 20-day MA at $327.1, and the 50-day MA at $353.8, with an RSI of around 32, approaching oversold territory.
Support is seen at $288 and $275, while resistance is at $299 and $327. Being oversold does not guarantee an immediate rebound; protective option positioning remains concentrated. I will wait for the stock to reclaim $299 before considering entry, avoiding bottom-fishing until confirmation.
SCHW dropped 1.4% to $108.28, but option flow of approximately $4.78 million was nearly 100% bullish, with new net bullish volume of about $4.59 million, primarily driven by aggressive selling of the November 2028 $110 puts.
The stock price is below the 5-day moving average at $109.2 and the 20-day moving average at $109.8, but remains above the 50-day moving average at $104; RSI is around 52.
Support levels are seen at $108 and $104, while resistance levels are at $110 and $115. As long as the $104 level holds, this batch of long-term put sales remains relevant for reference. If it breaks above $110, I will prioritize monitoring it.
ARM $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$ : Options are showing bullish sentiment first, but the technicals for the underlying stock remain weak.
ARM dropped 3% to $234.82. Option flow totaled approximately $3.06 million, entirely skewed bullish, with new bullish positions adding about $1.84 million.
However, the stock price is below the 5-day MA at $244.4, the 20-day MA at $259, and the 50-day MA at $280.5, with an RSI of around 39.
Support levels are seen at $229 and $220, while resistance levels are at $244 and $259.This reflects an options-driven expectation of a rebound, not a confirmed trend reversal in the stock price. Unless it reclaims $244, I would not consider bullish options as a reason to buy.
MRVL edged down slightly to $210.39, with net option flow of approximately -$5.50 million. One of the largest trades was the aggressive selling of March 2028 $300 Calls.
The stock price is below the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, with all three converging around $225; RSI is approximately 45.
Support levels are at $200 and $190, while resistance is at $225. I will continue to stay on the sidelines unless it reclaims $225; a break below $200 would further confirm weakness.
COIN fell 6% to $176.82. Approximately $1.72 million in single-leg option trades were entirely bearish openings, primarily driven by new short sales of the September 11 $190 Calls, with volume about 7.6 times the existing open interest.
The stock price is below the 5-day MA at $183.2, but remains above the 20-day MA at $164.8 and the 50-day MA at $161.1.
Support is seen at $175 and $165, with resistance at $183 and $190. A break below $175 could lead to a retest of $165; I will not buy in unless it recovers $183.
SNOW dropped 3.5% to $319.80. The net directional options flow was approximately -$1.45 million, with new bearish positions totaling around -$1.07 million, mainly due to new short sales of the September 11 $327.5 Calls.
The stock price is below the 5-day MA at $324.7 and the 20-day MA at $326.5, with an RSI of approximately 54.
Support is seen at $313 and $300; resistance is at $325–$327 and $333. Options have effectively turned $327.50 into a short-term ceiling. Without a breakout above $327, I am not chasing the rebound.
VST $Vistra Energy (VST.US)$ : A few stocks rose against the market trend, with new option positions also leaning bullish.
VST rose 0.5% against the trend to $138.08, with net new bullish option flow of approximately +$1.07 million, primarily driven by long-dated put selling.
However, the stock price remains below its 20-day MA ($141.2), 50-day MA ($150.8), and 200-day MA ($158.2). The RSI is around 41, indicating that a true trend reversal has not yet occurred.
Support is seen at $135 and $130; resistance is at $141 and $151. A breakout above $141 is required to shift the narrative from 'bottoming' to 'starting a rebound'; a drop below $130 would invalidate this setup.
If I could only pick five stocks to highlight today, they would be:
Apple, Alphabet, PANW, ANET, SCHW.
Apple showed the most strength against the market, though new option positioning hasn't fully caught up. Alphabet has progress on Robotaxi and bullish option flow, but it must first reclaim $341. Both PANW and ANET show bullish option activity ahead of price confirmation. SCHW is one of the stocks with the cleanest new bullish positioning today.
The biggest mistake to avoid is immediately buying puts when the three major indices drop, or casually buying high-leverage calls on good AI news. Tesla's $490 short-term calls, AMD's $700 calls, and Micron warrants with IV over 80% could all lead to losses due to contract terms, even if your broader market direction is correct.
If you are planning to deploy capital using Hong Kong-listed products, you can start by browsing “Warrant and Callable Bull/Bear Contract (CBBC) Product Overview”Then compare the strike price, expiration date, effective leverage, implied volatility (IV), time decay, and the call distance for CBBCs.
Finally, I'd like to ask everyone:
Regarding today's US stocks, would you choose to chase Apple's momentum, wait for confirmation of DELL's earnings gap, or do you think Tesla and COIN have dropped enough to offer value for a rebound play?
My own answer is:
I would rather wait for confirmation from Apple, Alphabet, and PANW than try to bottom-fish Tesla, COIN, or TLN right now.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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