Weekly Market Outlook - Market Strategy Weekly Report

Weekly Review of Key Highlights in the Hong Kong Stock Market

Over the past week, the Hong Kong stock market exhibited a pattern of repeated consolidation, with major indices generally giving back gains:

Performance of Major Indices: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.63% for the week, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 1.67%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index declined 3.38%.

Sector Divergence: Energy (+2.18%), Materials (+1.10%), and Healthcare (+0.20%) showed resilience against the market trend; while Consumer Discretionary (-4.93%), Telecommunications (-3.31%), and Real Estate & Construction (-2.10%) underperformed.

Capital Flow: Southbound funds (via Stock Connect) maintained a net buying trend, with cumulative net inflows of approximately HKD 9.77 billion for the week, continuing the recent pattern of net purchases.

Key Market Focus and Core Drivers This Week

Short-term market volatility was mainly driven by financing news from major tech/internet stocks and expectations for overseas interest rates. However, industrial innovation brought localized structural highlights:

Placing by Tech/Internet Leaders Triggers Short-Term Sentiment Swings:

Several leading internet companies announced large-scale placing plans, initially raising market concerns about share dilution and short-term capital diversion. Subsequently, major shareholders increased their holdings, narrowing the decline in related stocks.

Overseas Interest Rate Expectations Fuel Market Wait-and-See Sentiment:

Federal Reserve officials signaled a tighter monetary policy stance at the central bank symposium, heightening market expectations for September rate decisions. This drove US Treasury yields to fluctuate at high levels, putting short-term valuation pressure on rate-sensitive technology growth stocks.

Positive catalysts for the AI industry chain continue to unfold:

Overseas chip leaders reported strong earnings, confirming robust global demand for computing power. Meanwhile, major domestic smartphone manufacturers launched multiple advanced-process AI chips covering smartphone terminals, near-memory computing, and intelligent driving scenarios. This is accelerating the commercialization of AI and driving counter-trend activity in hard-tech sectors such as semiconductors and optical communications.

Interpretation of Macroeconomic Environment and Policy Landscape

Overseas Macro: The US economy and labor market remain resilient, with inflation data serving as a key indicator for the Fed's future policy direction. In the short term, the high-interest-rate environment may limit valuation expansion for tech stocks; however, if the policy path becomes clearer, the policy risk premium is expected to gradually decline.

Mainland China Economy and Policy: Industrial enterprise profits in July showed structural divergence, with profit growth mainly concentrated in upstream resources and the technology sector. On the policy front, relevant authorities have outlined the direction for new industrialization under the '15th Five-Year Plan,' continuing to focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading, providing medium-to-long-term support for high-end manufacturing and the technology sector.

Market Outlook and Four Key Asset Allocation Themes

HK stocks are expected to remain in a phase of volatility and consolidation in the short term. Investors may adopt a 'balanced offense and defense' strategy, focusing on sectors with high earnings certainty and industry catalysts:

Key Macro Events to Watch Next Week

Risk Warning:

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any investment products, nor does it provide any advice or recommendations. The information contained herein has not taken into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, or personal needs and should not be relied upon as a substitute for professional advice. You should seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.

Investment involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not indicate future fund returns. The value of fund units may rise or fall, and future returns are not guaranteed. Investors should read the fund's offering documents, including its prospectus and risk factors, before investing. Relevant fund information is available at https://www.fullgoal.com.hk/en (the content of this website has not been reviewed by the SFC).

This material is issued by Fullgoal Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Certain information in this document is sourced from third parties believed to be reliable; however, we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.

The above information is for reference only. If you wish to purchase relevant fund products, please pay attention to investor suitability management regulations, complete a risk assessment in advance, and select fund products with a risk rating that matches your own risk tolerance.

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