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[This Week's Market Watch] AI "Money Printing Machine Unboxed" Collides with Nationwide "Worker Census": How Many Waves Can Your Portfolio Withstand?
Hello, fellow investors!
As we welcome a new week, global financial markets are at a highly challenging crossroads. Facing volatile macroeconomic trends, many investors may feel uncertain:When leading stocks prop up the broader market while second-tier assets undergo repricing, how should we position ourselves? As high-valuation sectors face earnings tests, how can we find safe havens?
This article will dissect these issues, starting with a review of last week's market performance, and moving through this week's macroeconomic volatility, sector opportunities, as well as local market dividend and subscription opportunities, helping you navigate the volatile market with stability.
Last Week's Market Review: Divergence at Market Highs, Entering a Phase of 'Separating Wheat from Chaff'
Looking back at last week, the performance of global markets can be best described in one word—'divergence'.
– US stocks
Although major US indices remained volatile at high levels, internal market performance was significantly fragmented. The S&P 500 rose slightly by about 0.5% for the week, and the Nasdaq gained 0.8%, but the Russell 2000, representing small and mid-cap companies, fell by approximately 1.5%, and the semiconductor sector (SOXX) also dropped by about 2.2%. This reflects that risk appetite has not broadly expanded; rather, it appears that 'leading stocks are supporting the indices through earnings, while second-tier assets are being repriced under higher interest rate expectations'.
– Hong Kong stocks
In contrast, the local market shows a clear 'K-shaped profit recovery.' Profits of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 17.6% year-on-year from January to July, but the growth rate slowed to 11.2% in July alone, with strong performance in electronics and automobile manufacturing. Last week, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.63%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 3.38%, but the overall improvement in volume has not yet translated into a broad restoration of risk appetite for growth assets.
– Core Concept Sectors
Although demand for AI computing power remains robust, the sector has officially entered a phase where execution capabilities are being scrutinized. NVIDIA reported Q2 revenue of $96.2 billion, with its data center business recording $89 billion, and provided Q3 revenue guidance of $108 billion (±2%), confirming that AI demand has not cooled. However, Marvell's stock declined despite strong earnings, and the SOXX ETF underperformed the Nasdaq. This indicates that the market is no longer willing to pay premiums based solely on total addressable market (TAM) projections or long-term narratives. Instead, short-term actual revenue, gross margins, free cash flow (FCF), and order fulfillment speed have become the new pricing benchmarks.
Major Macro Event: August Non-Farm Payrolls Take Center Stage, Determining the Pace of Rate Cuts
The primary focus of global markets this week is undoubtedly the upcoming U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.This data will directly determine whether the Federal Reserve's previously hawkish stance can truly translate into concrete policy actions in September.Currently, Reuters/ING consensus estimates for new non-farm jobs are clustered around 45,000 to 65,000.
For risk assets, the most favorable scenario is not 'the stronger the employment, the better,' but rather a 'moderate cooling without recession':
– Scenario 1 (Moderate Cooling): If new job additions range between 40,000 and 70,000, accompanied by slowing wage growth, expectations for a September rate hike or sustained high interest rates are likely to ease, which would be most beneficial for equities.
– Scenario 2 (Overheated Employment): If the data exceeds 100,000 and wage growth remains hot, the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note and the US Dollar Index may rise further, exerting short-term pressure on tech stock valuations.
– Scenario 3 (Sharp Cooling): If non-farm payrolls approach zero or even turn negative, market logic could rapidly shift from "anticipating a Fed pivot" to "recession fears," triggering a reallocation of safe-haven funds.
Investment Focus: At this juncture, investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance and preserve sufficient liquidity flexibility. Adjust allocations to risk assets only after the non-farm payrolls data is released and the market direction becomes clear.
Sector and Stock Analysis: Secondary Validation for the AI Sector and Potential Opportunities in Gold
On the industry level, this week we will face another major test for the AI hardware supply chain and see layout opportunities in the gold sector.
1. The "Second Litmus Test" for AI Hardware: Broadcom (AVGO) Earnings and Supply Chain Cross-Validation
Semiconductor giant Broadcom $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ will report its earnings on September 2. As a leader in AI networking and custom chips, its performance will serve as the most significant validation of the AI rally following NVIDIA.
– Opportunity Analysis: Key focus areas for this earnings report include Broadcom's custom ASIC chips, AI networking technology, orders from hyperscalers, and Q4 guidance.If its AI revenue and guidance continue to be significantly raised, it implies that AI demand has successfully expanded from NVIDIA GPUs to custom chips and networking equipment, potentially broadening the rally across the entire AI hardware sector. Conversely, if there are only long-term order stories while near-term revenue recognition remains slow, second-tier AI stocks will continue to face valuation compression.
– Investment Focus:When assessing AI trends, investors should not look at Broadcom in isolation but should perform "cross-validation across the supply chain." Next week, $Credo Technology (CRDO.US)$ 、 $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$、 $Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.US)$ earnings reports from companies such as [missing context] will be released sequentially, validating demand in optical communications, AI servers, and enterprise infrastructure. If a "Strong NVDA + Strong AVGO + Strong CRDO/Dell" strong combination forms, the semiconductor $iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.US)$ , optical communication, and server supply chains may meet the conditions to upgrade from "watchlist" to "high-probability trading." In terms of strategy, the most worthwhile approach in the current AI sector is to buy dips in leaders ("strength on pullback"), rather than blindly chasing beta across the entire sector. Priority should be given to leading stocks with high revenue visibility that can hold their post-earnings gap ups and maintain relative strength. Caution is still advised for second-tier stocks supported only by long-term visions.
2. Gold Sector: Bullish for the medium term; exercise patience in the short term.
Although gold prices have seen profit-taking at highs due to pressure from rising real interest rates and a rebounding US dollar in the short term, the underlying logic remains intact.
– Opportunity Analysis: The long-term "debasement trade," driven by fiscal deficits, increased long-term bond supply, and eroding confidence in the US dollar, is increasingly becoming a core topic among mainstream institutions. This implies that gold retains significant medium-term allocation value, while short-term corrections offer a better observation window for investors who have not yet entered the market.
– Investment Focus: Avoid blindly chasing longs on the left side (counter-trend buying) in the short term. More noteworthy signals to watch include: if real interest rates continue to rise but gold prices cease to make new lows; or if the market exhibits a divergence where 30-year US Treasury yields rise, the US Dollar Index falls, and gold prices rise. These would be clearer signals indicating a significant increase in medium-to-long-term allocation value.
Local Practical Strategy: Guides for Hot IPOs, Silver Bonds with Principal Protection, and Ex-Dividend High-Yield Stocks
This week offers investors a rich array of "offensive and defensive" tools, covering explosive IPO subscriptions, highly defensive Silver Bonds, and opportunities to lock in high yields through ex-dividend plays.
1. Strategy for Hot IPOs and Silver Bonds
The Hong Kong stock market welcomes several distinctive new IPO listings this week, while the new tranche of government Silver Bonds has also entered a critical subscription period:
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As a global medical device provider, Mindray's products are distributed in over 140 countries worldwide. Domestically, its products cover more than 6,000 hospitals (including approximately 90% of Grade A tertiary hospitals). With multiple R&D and production centers established in China and the UK, the company possesses strong capabilities in both localized and international service delivery.
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An independent Chinese semiconductor memory brand. During the track record period, nearly 70% of its revenue came from overseas. It features a localized supply chain with strong risk resistance and deeply serves global leaders such as Dell, Lenovo, and Samsung. For the four months ended April 2026, its gross profit margin surged to 57.5%, and its net profit margin reached 43.7%, demonstrating remarkable earnings explosiveness. This year, it launched SPU controller chips to actively position itself in AI smart storage.
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Possesses a comprehensive technical framework covering vision models, robotic decision planning, and multi-sensor fusion. The company primarily commercializes its core technologies through robotic products, modules, and RaaS (Robotics-as-a-Service), widely deployed in various wheeled and wheeled-arm robotic application scenarios.
– Low-risk option: 44083 Government Silver Bond 2909 (Application deadline: Sep 4)
This product offers the following four core advantages:
◦ Government-backed credit, extremely low risk: Issued by the SAR Government, with 100% principal repayment at maturity. The issuer holds an extremely high credit rating, implying virtually zero default risk.
◦ Semi-annual interest payments, stable cash flow: Interest is distributed twice a year, helping investors manage their finances and daily expenses more regularly.
◦ Short 3-year tenor, high flexibility: With a tenor of only 3 years, holders can apply to the government for early redemption at par value at any time, ensuring funds are not locked up for the long term.
◦ Accessible entry threshold, simple and clear structure: The minimum investment is just HKD 10,000 per lot. The product logic is clear, involving no complex derivatives, making it easy to understand and manage.
This tranche of Silver Bonds offers up toA guaranteed base interest rate of 4.25%, Futu is also launching a major **“Nine Fee Waivers”** subscription promotion, including:Subscription fees, application fees, custody fees, inactive account fees, transfer-in fees, transfer-out fees, interest collection fees, early redemption fees, and maturity redemption feesare all waived! This helps investors truly achieve "zero-cost" subscriptions, easily locking in this stable return.
Income Opportunities
For investors focused on cash flow and dividend returns, three high-quality stocks are going ex-dividend this week. Buying and holding before the ex-dividend date allows you to lock in the corresponding dividends:
(Sorted by dividend yield from high to low)
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◦ Dividend Yield: 34.04%
◦ Ex-Dividend Date: September 4
◦ Estimated dividend per lot:HKD 1,000
◦ Dividend Yield: 11.58%
◦ Ex-Dividend Date: September 2
◦ Estimated dividend per lot: HKD 210
◦ Dividend Yield: 8.73%
◦ Ex-Dividend Date: September 3
◦ Estimated dividend per lot: HKD 71.10
Practical Tip: While high dividend yields are attractive, investors should remain mindful of the "post-ex-dividend price pullback" effect when positioning their portfolios. We recommend selecting industry leaders with solid fundamentals and robust cash flows to achieve the ideal outcome of "collecting high dividends while capturing capital gains."
This Week's Action List
To help you execute your investment strategy more systematically this week, we have compiled a "Core Watchlist & Action Plan":
1. Macro Perspective: Closely monitor the US August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data released on Friday and the 2-year US Treasury yield (hovering near 4.36%), as these will determine the market's medium-to-short-term direction.
2. Industry Perspective: Keep an eye on earnings reports from Broadcom (AVGO), CRDO, Dell, and HPE to cross-verify the realization of AI hardware performance. Adopt a "buy the dip on leaders" strategy to select top-tier stocks.
3. Local Defensive Strategy: Before the September 4 deadline, assess liquidity and actively participate in subscribing to government silver bonds with a guaranteed minimum yield of 4.25%, serving as a defensive core holding in the portfolio.
4. Local Offensive Strategy: Monitor the IPO processes of new listings such as Medtronic (note: likely referring to a specific local entity like Mindray or similar, but transliterated as Mai Ke Tian), Longsys, and Youdi Robotics. Also, consider allocating to high-dividend sectors like Brilliance China Automotive Holdings, Nine Xing Holdings, and Onewo before their respective ex-dividend dates.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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