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Optical communication stocks lead the rebound; will the AI optical cycle continue?
森木美股小生
joined discussion · Aug 28 21:28
1 $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ LITE surged to $970 at the open yesterday before experiencing some intraday pullback. Interestingly, by the close, the price rebounded from $920. The daily chart closed with a doji star featuring a long lower shadow, indicating solid buying support at lower levels.
1 $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ LITE surged to $970 at the open yesterday before experiencing some intraday pullback. Interestingly, by the close, the price rebounded from $920. The daily chart closed with a doji star featuring a long lower shadow, indicating solid buying support at lower levels. Looking at the moving averages, if LITE can pull up above the 5-day MA and quickly cross above the 10-day MA, it will form a new short-term bullish alignment. For investors who reduced their positions at yesterday's highs, you may hold your remaining core position, with the next upside target around $1,050. However, for those who missed the rally entirely, a more aggressive approach is now required. I suggest $930–$910 as the zone for initiating the first tranche of positions. To be clear, this is not bottom-fishing at low levels but rather buying the pullback of a strong stock at high levels. Therefore, be prepared for a potential second correction. Keep the initial position size small; if further adjustments occur due to market conditions, we will determine the entry point for the second tranche based on the prevailing environment. Another core ticker in the optical module sector... 2 $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ MRVL released its latest earnings report after hours. Despite revenue slightly exceeding expectations, the stock fell nearly 8% instead of rising, likely because the share price had already priced in part of the expectations beforehand. The stock price...
Looking at the moving averages, if LITE can pull up above the 5-day MA and quickly cross above the 10-day MA, it will form a new short-term bullish alignment. For investors who reduced their positions at yesterday's highs, you may hold your remaining core position, with the next upside target around $1,050. However, for those who missed the rally entirely, a more aggressive approach is now required. I suggest $930–$910 as the zone for initiating the first tranche of positions. To be clear, this is not bottom-fishing at low levels but rather buying the pullback of a strong stock at high levels. Therefore, be prepared for a potential second correction. Keep the initial position size small; if further adjustments occur due to market conditions, we will determine the entry point for the second tranche based on the prevailing environment. Another core ticker in the optical module sector...
2 $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ MRVL released its latest earnings report after hours. Despite revenue slightly exceeding expectations, the stock fell nearly 8% instead of rising, likely because the share price had already priced in part of the expectations beforehand. The stock price returned to around $220. However, for those who missed out on MRVL previously, this post-earnings pullback may not necessarily be a bad thing. MRVL has exposure to both optical interconnects and custom chips. If you remain bullish on AI infrastructure, I believe $220–$212 is a decent range for initiating the first tranche of positions, with the first upside target around $275.
Let me also update you on UMAC, the drone concept stock recommended yesterday.
The stock staged a very nice oversold bounce yesterday, closing up over 10%, with the price returning above $26. From a weekly perspective, UMAC executed a standard technical rebound after testing the 10-week moving average. If you participated at the lows, consider taking some profits after today's open, while holding your core position for the next target of $30. If you completely missed UMAC and feel that sentiment in the main tech theme is lacking, prompting you to chase hot themes, I view the area around $25 as an aggressive re-entry point. However, it must be emphasized that UMAC does not follow the same logic as the main tech theme; it lacks strong earnings certainty and is driven more by thematic speculation and technical trading. Therefore, averaging down is not suitable for this stock. If you insist on entering at $25, reduce your position size and set $22 as a clear risk-control stop-loss level.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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