Strong non-farm payrolls data interrupts the rebound; can the crypto rally continue?
Bitget UEX Daily | Warsh's Jackson Hole debut tonight; NVIDIA surges nearly 9%, breaking the earnings-day curse; Bitcoin spot ETFs see $2.8 billion in net inflows over 8 days
Warsh makes his Jackson Hole debut tonight, with market focus on anti-inflation credibility.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his inaugural keynote address at the Jackson Hole annual symposium on Friday at 22:00 (UTC+8). Key highlights include commitments to inflation targets, the communication framework, and the Fed's role in a high-debt environment.
Goldman Sachs expects him to avoid providing clear guidance for the September rate decision, instead likely reiterating the 2% target, explaining the communication logic of 'saying less and watching market signals,' and discussing productivity and global shocks.
CME data shows the probability of holding rates steady in September at approximately 63.5%, while the cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at around 36.5%.
Market ImpactThe speech has become the pricing anchor for the week. If he continues to avoid outlining a roadmap, volatility in long-end yields and the US dollar may increase; if he reaffirms his determination to fight inflation, it may temporarily suppress interest-rate-sensitive growth stocks.
The US refuses to return to the June understanding with Iran, prolonging the Strait of Hormuz stalemate.
Citing insiders, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration has repeatedly indicated to mediators its intention not to return to the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran this June.
Iranian officials stated they have prepared a list of conditions for the US, currently allowing only temporary passage of vessels through specific channels, with strait transit subject to a new understanding.
Bloomberg reports that Venezuela is assessing the feasibility of withdrawing from OPEC, a topic that has emerged in discussions with US officials.
Market ImpactExpectations for a diplomatic breakthrough have cooled, providing geopolitical support for oil prices; concerns over OPEC cohesion are rising, leading to increased short-term crude volatility, while the narrative of sticky inflation remains persistent.
Canada expands retaliatory tariffs; constraints on data centers remain in place.
Canada has added copper wire, charcoal, and other items to its list of goods subject to 50% retaliatory tariffs. The measure covers approximately $20 billion worth of U.S. goods and takes effect on September 8.
Institutions continue to highlight the risk of delays or cancellations for planned data centers, as power availability and community constraints persist in affecting the rollout pace of AI infrastructure.
Market ImpactNorth American trade friction and power bottlenecks form a dual constraint, drawing attention to related equipment and domestic supply chain themes, while expectations for tech capital expenditure become increasingly divergent.
Spot goldApproximately $4,597 per ounce, +0.06%
Spot SilverApproximately $69.25 per ounce, +0.12%
WTI Crude OilApproximately $83.47 per barrel, -0.06%
Brent crudeApproximately $88.45 per barrel, -0.19%
US Dollar Index (DXY)Approximately 99.12, +0.01%
Driver AnalysisThe US side has refused to return to the June agreement with Iran, dampening expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and providing a geopolitical floor for oil prices. Gold fluctuated at high levels ahead of Waller's speech, while silver found relative support from its industrial attributes. Bullish hedging in the USD options market is heating up, indicating that traders are reluctant to accumulate excessive short USD positions before the speech. Institutional views suggest that short-term commodities are dominated by a "geopolitical stalemate + policy communication vacuum," with asset correlations reflecting cooling negotiation expectations → support for oil prices → persistent inflation concerns → precious metals and FX awaiting tone-setting from Waller.
BTCApproximately $80,785, +2.6%
ETHApproximately $2,520, +1.2%
Total cryptocurrency market capitalizationApproximately $2.79 trillion, +1.7%
Market liquidation situation$370 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with $226 million in short positions liquidated
Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation HeatmapBitcoin is currently trading around $80,700. A significant concentration of short liquidation pressure lies in the $81,000–$82,000 range above; a sustained break above $81,000 could further trigger a short squeeze. Below, long liquidations are relatively concentrated near the $78,500–$80,000 level. If the price falls below $80,000, leveraged longs may face accelerated unwinding, potentially amplifying short-term volatility.
Spot ETF net inflows/outflowsNet inflows amounted to approximately $232 million on August 26, with cumulative net inflows of about $2.8 billion over the past eight trading sessions.
Driver AnalysisNVIDIA's earnings report boosted risk appetite, and combined with continuous net inflows into spot ETFs, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 level. Ethereum's elasticity is weaker than Bitcoin's, indicating that capital favors the "hard assets/debasement trade" theme rather than altcoin beta. Institutional consensus points to short-term pricing driven by both ETF liquidity and Waller's speech, with the $82,000–$86,000 range acting as both technical resistance and a zone of short liquidation pressure.
Dow Jones Industrial AverageClosed at 53,569.44 points, up 0.20%
S&P 500Closed at 7,730.99 points, up 0.72%, with significant contributions from heavyweight stocks
Nasdaq: Closed at 26,541.35 points, up 1.57%, led by technology and software sectors
NVDA: $228.00, up 8.74%
AAPL: $314.80, up 0.43%
MSFT: $506.00, up 1.94%
GOOGL: $340.80, down 0.35%
AMZN: $256.90, down 1.30%
META: $571.20, down 0.86%
TSLA: $354.25, up 2.44%
Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: The three major indices rose in unison, but market breadth was limited; the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index did not strengthen in tandem. Gains were highly concentrated in NVIDIA and software stocks that beat earnings expectations. NVIDIA's market capitalization increased by approximately $440 billion in a single day, accounting for nearly the entire rise in the indices. Apple and Microsoft performed steadily, while Amazon and Google were weighed down by valuation digestion and sector rotation. The collective rebound in software stocks indicates that capital is no longer taking a blanket bearish view on SaaS, but is instead differentiating targets based on their AI monetization capabilities.
Software/SaaS stocks rebounded sharply
Representative stocksSalesforce surged over 22%, and CrowdStrike rose more than 20%.
Key DriversEarnings and guidance exceeded expectations. Analysts believe the "SaaS doom" narrative was an overreaction, as AI implementation begins to translate into recurring revenue.
Semiconductors and AI hardware led the gains.
Representative stocksNVIDIA rose nearly 9%, while Intel gained over 4%.
Key DriversStrong demand for NVIDIA validated the recovery in the AI capital expenditure narrative, boosting risk appetite across the computing power supply chain.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks followed suit with stronger performance.
Representative stocksRelated trading platforms and Bitcoin-exposed assets generally closed higher.
Key DriversBitcoin's return to the $80,000 level and continuous inflows into ETFs provided sentiment support.
Event OverviewNVIDIA reported its fiscal second-quarter 2027 results, with revenue reaching $96.2 billion, a 106% year-over-year increase; data center revenue hit $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. The company rarely provides such forward-looking guidance, projecting approximately 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, and emphasized that the outlook would be even higher without supply constraints. The stock surged nearly 9% during regular trading hours, adding approximately $442 billion to its market capitalization, marking its best post-earnings performance since April 2025. The market also focused on reports of its increased investment in the AI ecosystem.
Market AnalysisInstitutions believe this earnings report simultaneously validates demand strength, guidance visibility, and pricing power. Providing high-growth forecasts a year in advance is extremely rare, indicating a significant improvement in order visibility. The mention of "supply constraints" also implies that bottlenecks persist and the logic for price increases has not yet ended. Analysts caution that gains at the index level are overly concentrated in individual stock weights, and it remains to be seen whether momentum will broaden to the wider AI supply chain.
Investment InsightThe medium-term demand thesis has been reinforced by earnings validation, but short-term crowding is rising. Investors need to monitor supply release and the divergence in customer capital expenditures.
Event OverviewSalesforce reported its fiscal 2027 second-quarter results, with revenue of $11.3 billion, up 11% year-over-year; subscription and support revenue stood at $10.8 billion. Current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) rose 14% year-over-year to $33.5 billion. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $46.1–$46.4 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 11–12%, and announced a partnership with Anthropic to launch Claudeforce. The stock surged more than 22%.
Market AnalysisInstitutions view the rally as a correction to the pricing of "slowing software growth." The acceleration in cRPO and the upward revision in guidance indicate that AI features are beginning to drive renewals and expansions, rather than remaining at the conceptual stage. Analysts are focusing on the breakdown between Informatica's consolidation contribution and organic growth, as well as the impact of subsequent M&A integration on profit margins.
Investment InsightThe core observation point for the recovery in the software sector is the quality of recurring revenue, rather than single-theme trading.
Event OverviewCrowdStrike reported its fiscal 2027 second-quarter results, with revenue of $1.47 billion, up 26% year-over-year; non-GAAP EPS was $0.31. Ending ARR reached $5.84 billion, with record net new ARR of $333 million, up 51% year-over-year. Falcon Flex account ARR doubled year-over-year to $2.29 billion. The company raised its full-year guidance for net new ARR growth. The stock rose more than 20%.
Market AnalysisInstitutions believe cybersecurity is a more rigid segment within AI spending, and the Flex model has enhanced customer expansion flexibility. International revenue has accelerated for five consecutive quarters, indicating that growth is not solely reliant on large North American clients. Analysts are watching whether margin expansion can proceed in tandem with high growth.
Investment InsightSuitable as a high-beta allocation for the implementation of AI security, requiring tracking of net new ARR and renewal rates.
Event Overview: Tesla gained approximately 2.4% to close at $354.25, outperforming some consumer tech leaders. The market is also monitoring Trump's executive order restricting certain foreign power equipment from entering the U.S. grid, with analysts suggesting that domestic energy storage and grid-related capabilities could indirectly benefit.
Market Analysis: Institutions view this rally more as a restoration of risk appetite and a return of tech beta, rather than a standalone fundamental inflection point. Energy and grid policies provide additional narrative support, but deliveries, gross margins, and the commercialization of autonomous driving remain the core drivers for medium-term pricing.
Investment Insight: Short-term performance will fluctuate with tech sentiment, while the medium-term outlook remains focused on contributions from the energy business and execution.
Event Overview: Apple closed slightly higher. The company has confirmed its autumn event will be held in the early hours of September 10 (Beijing Time), with the market continuing to price in the first foldable iPhone and the iPhone 18 Pro series.
Market Analysis: Amidst the surge in NVIDIA and software stocks, Apple's gains lagged, reflecting capital's preference for high-elasticity themes. Institutions still regard it as a stable cash-flow configuration within the tech sector, focusing on new product pricing and the replacement cycle.
Investment Insight: Suitable as a stable core holding for tech exposure, with close attention paid to launch pricing and initial sales data.
1. Bitcoin returned to the $80,000 level, with spot ETFs recording cumulative net inflows of approximately $2.8 billion over the past eight trading sessions, primarily driven by IBIT.
2. Bernstein continues to position Bitcoin as a core asset for the "currency debasement trade" and maintains its $300,000 year-end 2029 target.
3. Glassnode noted that August 19 saw the largest single-day short liquidation on record. The $82,000–$86,000 range remains a key resistance and liquidation zone.
4. Reports emerged that NVIDIA is in talks to acquire open-source model platform Hugging Face in a deal worth approximately $12.9 billion, reinforcing the narrative of its expansion into the model ecosystem.
5. Strive CEO Matt Cole stated in an interview: "The coming year will be somewhat challenging. However, over the next 4–5 years, I believe Bitcoin can easily surpass $500,000 per coin. Prices for gold and silver will also rise significantly. But for investors, one point is crucial: the US dollar is continuously depreciating. By then, the same dollar will buy far less than it does now. Therefore, you cannot use today's dollar value to measure the future. If you are an investor or wish to preserve family wealth, you must safeguard your hard-earned assets and prepare for the future. I believe the prices of such scarce assets will rise substantially. Moreover, over the next 4–5 years, the pace of US dollar depreciation is likely to far exceed that of the past 15 years."
Time Country/Region Data Release Market Attention
22:00
United States
Wall's keynote speech at Jackson Hole
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Evening
United States
Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final)
⭐⭐⭐
Wall's remarks: At 22:00 (UTC+8) on August 28, focus on his statements regarding the 2% inflation target, communication framework, and fiscal/debt issues, rather than whether he explicitly mentions a September rate hike.
Preliminary benchmark revision for non-farm payrolls: To assess the magnitude of employment data revisions.
NVIDIA price action digestionFocus on the broadening market participation following the surge, rather than just looking at the weighted stocks themselves.
Investment bank analysts believe that NVIDIA's earnings beat and extended guidance have significantly repaired the AI demand narrative, while the gains in Salesforce and CrowdStrike suggest that the pricing of "growth stalling" in the software sector was too rapid. Powell's debut at Jackson Hole remains the macro focal point; the market cares more about whether he can provide a roadmap for fighting inflation than about a one-off hawkish or dovish label. Geopolitically, the US refusal to return to the June understanding with Iran has put a floor under oil prices, making it difficult for concerns about sticky inflation to dissipate quickly. The crypto market has surpassed $80,000 following continuous ETF inflows and a short squeeze, but the $82,000–$86,000 range remains a key test. Overall strategy recommendation: Treat tonight's speech as a volatility catalyst, remain flexible with high-valuation growth stocks, and continue to track structural themes such as memory storage, optical communication, software monetization, and power constraints.
Disclaimer: The above content has been compiled by AI-powered search and verified only by human review prior to publication. It does not constitute any form of investment advice. Data presented herein may inevitably contain inaccuracies; please refer to real-time market data for accuracy.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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