AI momentum reignites in US stocks, but HK stocks haven't broken through: Bull contracts on the Hang Seng Index are seeing increased buying. Today, I'm actually most interested in watching Tencent, Alibaba, and two AI stocks.

US stocks were very hot last night, with the Nasdaq 100 rising 1.43%. Nvidia's earnings and guidance have pushed AI trading back to the center of the market, while Salesforce and CrowdStrike surged 22.6% and 20.5%, respectively. However, looking at Hong Kong stocks this morning, I won't directly apply the formula "US tech rises = HK tech catches up today." The reason is simple:The Hang Seng Index itself has not yet completed a breakout, but there is already significant capital in the structured warrant market betting early on a rebound. Nvidia's strong forecast has indeed restored market confidence in the sustainability of AI capital expenditure, but US stocks last night were clearly led by tech shares, rather than a broad-based rise across all sectors.

So, the first thing today is not to rush to find which stock will surge, but to ask:Has the recent influx of new bull contracts on the Hang Seng Index made the right bet?

If you want to compare the terms of different Calls, Puts, Bull Contracts, and Bear Contracts yourself today, you can click directly “Warrant and Callable Bull/Bear Contract (CBBC) Product Overview”. I will place the products worth watching today in the overview, while the article will focus on explaining: why I made these selections, at what levels these products are worth using, and under what circumstances the original thesis would be invalidated.

Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ : Street inventory of bull contracts has increased significantly, but I won't just look at which one has the highest leverage

The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,565.74 points yesterday, still below the Bollinger Band midline of approximately 25,638.96, with the short-term RSI around 48.9. From the chart, 25,500 remains the first line of defense today; above that, we look to 25,790 first, followed by the more significant resistance zone of 26,000 to 26,100. Therefore, I still define the Hang Seng Index today as:Conditions for a rebound are present, but the market has not officially entered a breakout phase.

However, the structured warrant market has moved ahead of the spot market. On the 27th, trading volume for Hang Seng Index (HSI) bull contracts reached approximately HKD 4.276 billion, while bear contracts totaled around HKD 3.416 billion. The outstanding position of bull contracts increased by about 400 million units in a single day, whereas that of bear contracts decreased by approximately 39.15 million units. In other words, the most obvious trend in the market is not widespread bearishness, but rather a growing number of investors using bull contracts to bet on a rebound. For this reason, I will not simply choose products with the highest leverage. When significant capital aligns on one side, the placement of the call price becomes more critical than having ten times higher leverage.

This time, I will divide four products into two from UBS Group and two from different issuers, allowing everyone to clearly see the trade-offs between these products.

Regarding UBS Group, I will first look atBull Contract 59008, with a call price of 25,100, leverage of approximately 46.5x, and a distance of about 1.8% from the current level. Under what circumstances is this suitable? It is not for rushing in at the market open, but rather for utilizing its higher elasticity when the HSI confirms support at 25,500 or even pushes back toward 25,790. Its advantage is sufficient leverage, but the downside is direct: a 1.8% distance to the call price means limited room for error. If the market shifts from a rebound to a sharp plunge, risks will escalate quickly.

For the other UBS Group product, I will choose a bear contract,Bear Contract 63025. It has a call price of 26,000, leverage of approximately 49.2x, and a distance of about 1.7%. This is not for expressing bearish views right now, but rather holds short-term value if the HSI attempts to test the 25,790–26,000 range and begins to lose momentum, or fails to break through after several attempts. Its role is clear:An aggressive tool for trading resistance levels., not a tool for a bearish medium-term outlook.

For the other two, I would choose CITIC Securities and HSBC respectively. As for bull contracts, I would go with58464 CITIC Securities Bull Contract, with a call price of 25,128, leverage of approximately 46.5x, and a distance of about 1.7%. Its leverage is very close to that of UBS Group's 59008, but the call price differs slightly, allowing investors to make a comparison: do you prioritize product trading liquidity or the call price level? Trading in 58464 was very active yesterday, so if the Hang Seng Index confirms a rebound, it is already a contract with significant market participation.

As for bear contracts, I would choose55388 HSBC Bear Contract, with a call price of 26,150, leverage of approximately 41.2x, and a distance of about 2.3%. This one forms a good contrast with UBS Group's 63025: 63025 has higher leverage and a call price closer to 26,000; 55388 has slightly lower leverage, but its call price is set at 26,150, just above the current major resistance zone.If I were waiting for the Hang Seng Index to actually reach around 26,000 before positioning for a decline, I would find a product like 55388 more comfortable, as you won't face immediate call risk just by touching the 26,000 level.

Today, regarding Hang Seng Index bull and bear contracts, I would allocate them as follows:

So the real question today is not "bull or bear," but rather:At what level do you plan to enter a position? I will only consider going long if 25,500 holds; I will turn bearish only if it fails to break through the 25,790–26,100 range. No single issuer's products are inherently the best; rather, different terms suit different market scenarios.

If you want to compare other Call options, Put options, Callable Bull Contracts (CBCs), and Callable Bear Contracts (CBBCs) yourself, remember to click directly on “Warrant and Callable Bull/Bear Contract (CBBC) Product Overview”. I am actually very keen to know how everyone makes their selections:Codes 59008 and 58464 have similar leverage. Would you change your choice based on the issuer, trading liquidity, or a difference of a few dozen points in the call price? If you are bearish, would you choose 63025, which has 49x leverage but is closer to the money, or 55388, which has 41x leverage but a call price further away?

Tencent $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ vs Alibaba $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ : Although some are buying Calls, I still prefer Tencent today.

Looking solely at the trading volume of Call warrants on the 27th, Alibaba stands out significantly. Alibaba Call turnover was approximately HKD 649 million, while Put turnover was only about HKD 44 million, showing a vast gap between bullish and bearish activity. Tencent Call turnover was around HKD 347 million, with Puts at about HKD 57 million. On the surface, bullish sentiment for Alibaba appears stronger than for Tencent. However, if we considertrading volume alongside changes in outstanding street inventory,, the narrative begins to look different.

Alibaba's call option trading volume was robust, yet the outstanding open interest in calls actually decreased by approximately 26 million contracts. This indicates that high trading volume does not necessarily translate into new long positions; it may include position closures, profit-taking, rolling over positions, or purely short-term speculative bets on a rebound after a sharp decline. This point is particularly important because Alibaba recently underwent a large-scale share placement, which initially led to a noticeable increase in short selling. The market only began to reassess the narrative—whether the large financing was dilutive or merely ammunition prepared for AI investments—after Chairman Joe Tsai and management bought shares. On the 25th, Joe Tsai purchased another 720,000 Alibaba H-shares, with the associated financing widely regarded as being used for AI investments.

Therefore, my current view on Alibaba avoids simplistic judgments like '650 million in call turnover equals a trend reversal.' I acknowledge its rebound potential and that the earlier aggressive short-selling pressure is being absorbed. However, to upgrade my rating from 'rebound play' to 're-establishment of an uptrend,' I need to see two things:First, a shift from decreasing to increasing open interest in calls; second, the ability to hold gains at higher levels after the rebound, rather than seeing rising turnover accompanied by continued position unwinding.

Tencent is different. Its call option trading volume is not as exaggerated as Alibaba's, but open interest in calls increased by about 23 million contracts, suggesting that some capital is not just trading but keeping new call positions in the market. For short-term warrant and CBBC traders, this distinction is crucial:Trading volume tells you many people are participating, while changes in open interest more accurately indicate whether investors are willing to hold positions.

So, if I had to choose between Tencent and Alibaba today, I would still favor Tencent. This is not because Alibaba lacks opportunity, but because Tencent's current combination of 'volume + open interest' is more complete. Alibaba excels in rebound explosiveness, but the market still needs to prove that this rebound is not merely a major change of hands following recent events. If you already hold Alibaba calls, what you want to see most right now is not just the underlying stock rising another 2-3%, buta resumption of open interest accumulation in calls the next day,as this would significantly improve the quality of the trade.

MiniMax (Xiyu Technology) $MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)$ and Zhipu AI $Z.AI (02513.HK)$ : Both are AI stocks, but the capital flows are definitely not moving in the same direction.

Today, I actually feel compelled to compare these two. The reason isn't just that they’re both labeled 'AI,' but because there is a noteworthy divergence between their product data and short-selling activity.

For Zhipu, call option turnover reached approximately RMB 171 million on the 27th, while bull contracts also recorded around RMB 42 million in turnover. Judging by product activity alone, the market is clearly very willing to participate with leverage. However, on the other hand, the open interest of calls dropped significantly by about 71.6 million contracts. This figure is hard to ignore; it indicates that strong share prices and high trading volumes do not necessarily mean more people are holding calls. Quite the opposite, a significant number of existing positions are exiting. To me, Zhipu currently looks more like amarket for profit-taking and position rotation among strong-performing stocks.: You can remain bullish, but when chasing highs, don't assume that all warrant and derivative capital is increasing their exposure.

MiniMax (Xi Yu Technology) is even more interesting. Call option turnover was around RMB 120 million, while put volume was minimal, suggesting a one-sided directional bias. However, call open interest also declined, and short-selling activity has increased noticeably compared to before. The company's fundamental news is hardly weak; H1 revenue surged approximately 283% year-over-year. This is precisely why the market is willing to continue speculating on the AI growth story.

In other words, MiniMax is currently influenced by three forces:Capital chasing price gains driven by fundamental growth, call holders reducing positions at high levels, and another batch of capital starting to bet against the rapid rise through short selling. These are the stocks I enjoy researching the most, because true significant volatility often arises not from consensus, but from both bullish and bearish capital simultaneously scaling up their positions.

If you ask me which of the two AI stocks is 'safer,' I wouldn't frame the question that way. I would rephrase it as:Which stock's capital structure is more likely to generate a second wave of momentum? For Zhipu AI, watch whether call options held by the market (street inventory) start accumulating again after a significant drop. For MiniMax, observe whether the share price remains resilient despite an increase in short selling. If short interest continues to rise while the stock price holds at high levels, it could lead to a more intense clash between bulls and bears.

I’m keen to hear everyone’s real-world trading experiences with this group:After the sharp rally in AI stocks, do you fear missing out due to having no position, or do you fear buying in right at the peak and becoming the last bag holder? These two psychological states will directly determine whether you should choose underlying shares, low-leverage warrants/callable contracts, or simply stay on the sidelines for now.

US Stocks: Nvidia reaffirms the AI narrative, but the focus now is on finding the 'next layer of earnings'

Last night, Nvidia $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ rose 8.7%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.57%, the S&P 500 rose 0.72%, while the Dow only edged up 0.20%. Thus, it was not a broad-based risk-on night, but rathertech stocks, particularly those related to AI, clearly led the gains. Rarely does Nvidia forecast revenue growth of approximately 70% for the next fiscal year, far exceeding many prior market expectations. The significance of this signal is not just another quarterly earnings beat, but rather the market's renewed confirmation that spending on AI infrastructure has not yet peaked, at least for the time being.

Nasdaq 100$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ The chart also supports this view. The NDX closed at 29,641.56, reclaiming the middle band of the Bollinger Bands around 29,446. The next resistance levels to watch are the psychological barrier of 30,000, followed by the upper Bollinger Band near 30,292. As long as the 29,400–29,500 support zone holds, I still rank the Nasdaq as the strongest among the three major US indices.

However, the most common mistake here is concluding this morning, after Nvidia rose nearly 9% last night, that "AI is strong, so keep chasing highly leveraged calls." While the directional thesis may remain valid, the products may no longer be cheap. Therefore, I prefer to take a wait-and-see approach with US stocks today.Can the AI rally spread from chips to software and cybersecurity?。

Salesforce $Salesforce (CRM.US)$ It surged 22.6% last night. This was not solely due to beating earnings estimates; the company also raised its full-year revenue and profit forecasts and launched new plugins integrated with Anthropic's Claude. Earlier this year, the market was most concerned that AI would undermine the value proposition of traditional SaaS companies. CRM's sharp rise now offers an alternative answer:If software companies can truly embed AI into workflows and monetize it, AI may not be a killer for SaaS but rather a new source of revenue.

CrowdStrike $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ jumped 20.5% and raised its full-year revenue forecast. This represents not just AI application, but another counterintuitive logic: as AI capabilities grow stronger, the automation of cyberattacks against enterprises may also increase. Therefore, security spending may not decline and could even become harder to cut. Reuters also pointed out that the strong results from CRM and CRWD have significantly eased market concerns that "AI will destroy the traditional software industry."

Therefore, I will not write about second or third chip stocks today to repeat the Nvidia narrative. What I really want to verify is:Whether CRM and CRWD can hold their post-earnings gaps after Nvidia consolidates its gains. If they can, this round of the AI rally will expand from "buying computing power" to "AI applications + AI security." If they quickly give back their gains, it means the market is still focused solely on speculating on the upstream AI leaders.

Just one final reminder,Unlike underlying stocks, calls/puts, and CBBCs which have varying actual terms, you can click directly on the "Warrants & CBBC Product Overview" to compare them. What I’m most curious about today isn’t whether everyone is bullish or bearish, but rather two more practical choices:If the Hang Seng Index holds above 25,500, would you choose a bull contract with a gearing ratio of around 46x and a call price close to the current level, or one with a gearing ratio of around 36x and a call price further away? Between Tencent and Alibaba, which side are you on right now?

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