US Stock Pre-Market Sentinel (08/27)

I. Market Environment

Yesterday's (Wednesday, August 26) closing:

Dow Jones: 53,463.88 (-0.21%), Nasdaq: 26,130.20 (-0.08%), S&P 500: 7,675.70 (-0.02%), ending a three-day winning streak.

Key Variables: July PCE rose 3.7% year-over-year (expected 3.6%), Core PCE rose 3.3% year-over-year. Inflation slightly exceeded expectations, fueling rate hike anticipation.

Sector Structure:

Memory and optical communication stocks strengthened (Western Digital +4.02%, ARM +3.93%, Seagate +3%, Micron +0.58%, Lumentum +6%, Corning +3%, Coherent +2%); the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.20%. Optical communications were driven by NVIDIA's mass production of CPO modules and Largan Precision hitting record highs in Taiwan.

Big Tech stocks showed mixed performance (Apple +1.15%, Meta +1.07%, Microsoft +0.95%, NVIDIA -1.59%, Tesla -1.26%, Google -1.23%).

NVIDIA After-Hours Earnings (Core Focus):

Q2 Revenue: $96.2 billion (+106%, expected $92.38 billion); EPS: $2.22 (+120%); Data Center Revenue: $89.0 billion (expected $85.86 billion). Q3 Guidance: $105.8–$110.1 billion (expected $105.15 billion), broadly beating expectations. Shares initially fell 2% after hours before reversing to gain over 5%. Management projects ~70% revenue growth for FY2028 (analyst consensus: 45%). Jensen Huang stated the AI infrastructure market is worth $3–4 trillion, with annual capital expenditure from the four major cloud providers approaching $600 billion.

Macro/News:

PCE slightly exceeded expectations, raising Fed rate hike concerns; Apple's September 9 event (Tim Cook stepping down as CEO, first foldable iPhone launch); Golden Dragon China Index -0.61% (NetEase -4.17%, iQIYI -4.58%); Oil prices retreated (WTI $82.23, Brent $87.84), Gold prices dropped (COMEX $4,647.8, Spot $4,591.61).

Pre-market Update (8/27): NVIDIA's earnings beat expectations, boosting market sentiment, though PCE data is capping valuation upside. Whether the Nasdaq can break through 26,200 depends on the strength of capital inflows following the earnings release.

2. NVIDIA (NVDA)

Previous Close: 208.48 (-1.59%, under pressure ahead of earnings after seven consecutive daily declines). In after-hours trading, the stock initially fell 2% before reversing to gain over 5%, pushing its market cap back above $5.3 trillion.

Management Guidance: FY2028 revenue growth projected at ~70% (vs. analyst consensus of 45%); AI infrastructure market estimated at $3-4 trillion; Blackwell Ultra running at full capacity, with Rubin mass production starting next year; Sovereign AI revenue expected to exceed $20 billion.

Support Level: 200-210 (psychological barrier and round-number support)

Resistance Level: 230 (upper bound of the pre-earnings trading range)

Strategy: Earnings and Q3 guidance both beat expectations, improving short-term sentiment. However, PCE-driven inflation pressures and market skepticism regarding the sustainability of AI capex remain. Capitalize on the current momentum by building positions in tranches within the 210-215 range, gradually reduce holdings above 230, and wait for sentiment to stabilize before taking further action.

3. Tesla (TSLA)

Previous Close: 346.17 (-1.26%, volume: 13.8 billion). Cybercab to be publicly launched in Austin in late August; Semi secures order for 500 units from Einride; Shanghai Gigafactory produces its 6 millionth battery pack; July sales in Germany plummeted 66.9% year-over-year.

Support Level: 330-340 (lower bound of the recent trading range)

Resistance Level: 370-385 (resistance zone for rebound)

Strategy: Fundamentals are under pressure due to declining European sales, but catalysts from Robotaxi and Semi remain. Consider buying on dips below 340, and take profits on rallies above 360.

4. Micron (MU)

Yesterday's close: 929.38 (+0.58%, turnover did not make the top 10). HBM sold out; Idaho establishes a $10 billion AI memory research lab. The storage sector strengthened against the trend (Western Digital +4%, Seagate +3%, SanDisk +1%).

Support level: 850-880 (entry/addition zone).

Resistance level: 1,000 (psychological barrier).

Strategy: Strong demand for storage, clear long-term logic for AI memory. The risk-reward ratio is favorable in the 850-880 range for buying; buy aggressively on sharp drops below 850.

5. SpaceX (SPCX)

Yesterday's close: 136.25 (-1.23%, trading volume 8.1 billion). The second wave of lock-up expiration involving 320 million shares has completed; the stock rebounded after falling below the IPO price of 135. There are seven more lock-up expirations before year-end. Ed Elson states the intrinsic value is only $10-$30.

Support level: 130-135 (near IPO price)

Resistance level: 150 (recent high)

Strategy: Selling pressure from lock-up expirations persists, and there is significant controversy over fundamental valuation. Bottom-fishing below 130 is not recommended; wait for valuation clarity before reconsidering.

6. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

Yesterday's close: 417.69 (+0.07%, turnover: 3.1 billion). After-hours trading rose to 424.925 (+1.73%). CoWoS capacity is fully booked, with excess orders spilling over to Intel's Malaysia facility. The Taiwan Weighted Index gained 1.47%, while Taiwan Semiconductor rose 0.63%.

Support level: 400

Resistance level: 440

Strategy: Strongest economic moat; robust demand for AI foundry services. Open positions at 400; add to positions in the 350–380 range.

7. Key Events This Week

Aug 27 (Thu): First trading day after NVIDIA earnings release

Aug 28 (Fri): Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole

Aug 29–30: Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Symposium

Risk warnings: PCE inflation exceeding expectations + anticipation of Fed rate hikes + concerns over the sustainability of AI capital expenditure + NVIDIA customer concentration risk (two major customers account for 39% of revenue).

57K Views