PCE (July): 3.7% YoY, slightly above expectations Core PCE (...

US Stock Market Chat | This Week’s Two Key Focuses: US CPI and Apple Event

股林看美股。

joined discussion ·

PCE (July): 3.7% YoY, slightly above expectations

Core PCE (July): 3.3% YoY, in line with expectations

GDP (Q2 second estimate): +1.5% annualized growth, in line with expectations

Market Sentiment: Neutral to cautious, awaiting NVIDIA results and data confirmation

1. Market Environment

PCE rose 3.7% YoY, slightly above expectations, indicating persistent inflation.

US Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.62%, providing a buffer for tech stock valuations.

Crude oil fell for the third consecutive day as geopolitical risk premiums declined. Pre-market pressure on tech stocks persists, with Nasdaq-100 futures underperforming the broader market.

2 Today's Key Variable: NVIDIA (NVDA)

Earnings released after hours; market-implied volatility is approximately ±5.4%, equivalent to a market cap swing of around $280 billion.

Key Focus Areas:

✅ Progress on Rubin chips

✅ Data center revenue and guidance

✅ Gross margin and expense ratios

✅ AI capital expenditure by major cloud providers

✅ Next-quarter guidance

3 Today's Main Market Themes to Watch

AI/Semiconductors: Capital remains cautious ahead of earnings; watch NVIDIA's guidance for direction first.

Memory chips (e.g., Micron): Avoid chasing highs amid volatile trading; wait for clearer signals on demand and pricing.

Optical transceivers (e.g., Coherent): Benefiting from AI expansion logic; await sector rotation opportunities.

AI data centers/Power: Medium-to-long-term thesis remains intact; short-term focus is on capital absorption.

Consumer/Retail: Spending by low- and middle-income households is under pressure; Kohl's down ~7% in pre-market trading, highlighting widening divergence in discretionary consumption.

4. Today's Strategy

☑ Core positions already established: Manage position sizes and patiently await NVIDIA's earnings results.

☑ New Position Strategy: Avoid heavy positions chasing highs before earnings reports; wait for capital flow direction to clarify post-earnings.

☑ Position Management: Stay flexible and keep at least 20–30% in cash to handle volatility.

☑ Risk Control: Monitor whether the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to decline and if oil prices have stabilized.

Key Events Today (Eastern Time)

08:30 July PCE and Core PCE data

08:30 Q2 GDP Second Estimate

08:30 Durable Goods Orders

16:00 New Home Sales

After Hours NVIDIA Earnings Report

One-sentence summary:

Inflation slightly higher, US Treasury yields retreating, oil prices cooling down; the market is waiting for NVIDIA to set the direction.

The core investment thesis remains unchanged; timing is more important than direction.

If you also trade US stocks, feel free to follow me. I share daily market insights and stock-specific opportunities to help you plan your investments in advance.

76K Views