US and Iran reach consensus, oil prices fall! What to focus on in NVIDIA's earnings report? Avoid chasing rare earth stocks at highs; storage sector holding strategy

Let's first look at the biggest positive news for the market yesterday! 1. Under Pakistan's mediation, the US and Iran have reached a new consensus on the terms of the latest ceasefire agreement. A key component is ensuring the restoration of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Following this news, international oil prices saw a significant correction, which was also one of the important reasons for the rebound in overall risk appetite in the US stock market yesterday. Therefore, at least from a macro perspective, the short-term suppression of the market by Middle East tensions is marginally easing. $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 2. NVIDIA will also release its latest quarterly earnings after the market close today. The market currently expects NVIDIA's revenue for the previous quarter to reach $92–95 billion. However, what really needs attention is not whether the stock will rise or fall after the earnings report, as post-earnings stock performance is influenced by many factors such as expectation gaps, valuation, and guidance. What deserves more attention is whether NVIDIA's revenue growth can continue to remain at high levels. As long as NVIDIA's overall revenue continues to maintain a high growth rate, it indicates that large tech companies' investment in AI infrastructure has not significantly slowed down. And as long as AI capital expenditure does not decelerate, it will not only benefit NVIDIA but also indirectly benefit memory chips, optical modules, and the entire AI hardware ecosystem. Let's first look at the memory sector. Although both SK Hynix and Micron saw some rebound yesterday, their gains were actually not significant compared to other hot themes. $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$$Micron Technology (MU.US)$

3. SK Hynix's stock price has returned to around $160, while Micron's stock price remains at $930. For friends who entered the memory sector early with me, I believe there is no need to make any moves now; continue to hold patiently. This is because our participation in the memory sector was not aimed at trading the ups and downs of NVIDIA's earnings report, but rather betting on the continued growth of AI hardware demand and the ability of the memory industry to maintain high prosperity. Therefore, whether it is SK Hynix or Micron, as long as your overall position is controllable, I believe there is no need to engage in frequent trading due to short-term volatility at this stage. Hold patiently and wait for gains. However, for those completely out of the tech sector, if you are worried about other high-beta tech mainlines, the memory sector remains, in my view, the tech mainline with the highest industry prosperity and earnings certainty. You can still look for opportunities to participate in SK Hynix or Micron in batches.

Having discussed the memory sector, which has relatively high certainty, let's next look at one of the most active directions for short-term capital: rare earths.

4. Yesterday, driven by high-beta small-cap targets like CRML, the entire rare earth sector surged again. Looking at market theme performance since mid-August, apart from cryptocurrencies, rare earths should be one of the few hot areas where capital repeatedly returns to trade. Many friends have privately asked me whether rare earths can still be chased. My view is that they can be traded, but only as a hotspot where short-term speculative capital congregates, rather than as a low-position preemptive entry. From an industrial perspective, rare earths themselves are certainly fine; as crucial upstream raw materials for many semiconductor equipment and high-end manufacturing sectors, the long-term demand and prosperity of the industry remain worth watching. However, the biggest problem now is that stock prices are no longer low. Currently, the positions of many rare earth stocks are similar to those of AI hardware like memory and optical modules that rose earlier, all residing in the mid-to-high range. Therefore, if you still want to participate in rare earth trading now, it is not about low valuation, but whether short-term capital will continue to cluster. If you still wish to participate in the rare earth direction, I would instead advise against continuing to chase those small-market-cap, high-beta targets. I would be more inclined to consider MP.
$MP Materials (MP.US)$ MP, as the core bellwether with a relatively larger market cap in the rare earth sector, offers better stock price stability. If you are determined to participate, I suggest adopting a two-tranche allocation strategy. The first entry position could be considered around $58, but do not fill the position all at once. If capital does not continue to cluster later and MP undergoes a second adjustment, wait for the stock price to pull back to $50 before making the second move. Structurally, as long as $50 is not effectively broken down, MP overall maintains a震荡 upward structure, with the upside target still locked at $70.

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