US-Iran tensions flare up again: How will Strait risks impact assets?
Niu Niu's Futures Watch | Geopolitical "ebb" meets technical turning point: Gold reclaims long-term moving averages, is Silver's Wave C bottoming process over?
News that the US and Iran had reached a consensus on ceasefire terms broke, and the crude oil market reacted first. $Brent Last Day Financial Futures (DEC6) (BZmain.US)$ The single-day drop approached 5%, as the geopolitical risk premium accumulated over the previous months is being rapidly unwound.
For precious and industrial metals, with short-term geopolitical disruptions fading, market attention has shifted back to technical patterns and fundamental valuation logic.
From a technical perspective, $Gold Futures (DEC6) (GCmain.US)$ reclaiming the long-term moving average, $Silver Futures (DEC6) (SImain.US)$ Wave C bottoming out, $Copper Futures (DEC6) (HGmain.US)$ Approaching new highs,Behind these three clues, is this the end of the rebound or the start of a new cycle?
1. Progress in US-Iran communications drives oil prices down
According to foreign media citing sources, the US and Iran have reached a consensus on the terms of a ceasefire agreement under Pakistan's mediation, involving navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are simultaneously communicating on technical details such as temporary routes and traffic management. Market pricing for extreme scenarios of long-term restrictions on the strait has cooled.
Crude oil reacted most directly. $Brent Last Day Financial Futures (DEC6) (BZmain.US)$ It faced clear pressure and declined after the news broke, with the geopolitical premium priced in earlier accelerating its release. It should be noted that diplomatic progress typically features 'expectations leading, implementation lagging.' Future observations should focus on the release of official texts, the progress of technical meetings, and the resumption of navigation. If negotiations fluctuate, the premium may rise again.
The impact on precious metals was relatively indirect. $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ and $XAG/USD (XAGUSD.FX)$ There was no significant volatility after the announcement, indicating that the weight of geopolitical factors in the current pricing of precious metals was already low. The market is more focused on the trend of US Treasury yields and the credit landscape of the US dollar.
2. Technical analysis: Gold, silver, and copper are at different stages
Gold futures: Breakout from triangle consolidation, reclaiming the 200-day moving average
$Gold Futures (DEC6) (GCmain.US)$ After pulling back from the highs in early 2026 and undergoing several months of correction, a阶段性 bottom formed around the $4,000 level, followed by a recovery rally. On the daily chart, starting August 5, a high-volume bullish candle broke out of the triangle consolidation pattern, successively moving above the 60-day, 120-day, and 200-day moving averages. Notably, on August 19, another high-volume bullish candle reclaimed the long-term MA200, sending a clear signal that the short-to-medium-term trend is shifting from weak to strong.
$Gold Futures (DEC6) (GCmain.US)$ The current price is trading above $4,700. Key resistance to watch is the previous dense trading zone around $4,800. On the downside, the long-term moving averages serve as a crucial reference for determining whether the trend can sustain. Overall, gold appears to be in the trend repair phase following the end of its correction.
Silver: Wave C bottomed out in the $55–$60 range, with a rebound approaching $70.
$Silver Futures (DEC6) (SImain.US)$ Since pulling back from the high of approximately $121.80, the correction has displayed a relatively complete three-wave structure:A sharp decline in Wave A, a rebound in Wave B, followed by a longer-duration decline in Wave C.Around July, prices repeatedly consolidated at the bottom within the $55–$60 range, subsequently rebounding to near $69. The MA5, MA20, and MA60 have turned upward again, while momentum indicators have synchronously shifted from negative to positive.
The current key level lies in the $70–$72 range.This zone coincides with the MA120, MA200, and psychological integer levels, serving as an indicator for judging whether the Wave C correction has ended. If the price effectively holds above this level, the probability of the correction ending and upside space opening up increases; if it fails to break through and falls back, it may transition into a more complex range-bound consolidation.A technical turning point for silver has already emerged, but trend confirmation still awaits validation through a breakout.
Silver exhibits greater volatility elasticity than gold, which currently manifests as catch-up potential on the upside. If gold confirms its hold above the MA200 and further opens up upside space, silver's catch-up momentum deserves attention.
Copper: The medium-to-long-term uptrend continues, with prices approaching or hitting new highs.
Copper prices remain in an upward channel, $Copper Futures (DEC6) (HGmain.US)$ recently nearing historical highs. The main drivers are tight inventory levels, the construction of AI computing infrastructure, global grid upgrades, and the widening supply-demand gap caused by new energy capacity installations.This logic is not entirely synchronized with that of precious metals.Copper prices tend to benefit more during phases of easing geopolitical risks and recovering risk appetite.
Overall, $Gold Futures (DEC6) (GCmain.US)$ the focus is on credit and trend repair; reclaiming the 200-day moving average (MA200) has technically provided a line of defense for bulls; $Silver Futures (DEC6) (SImain.US)$ the bottoming process of Wave C is painful, but the more solid the base structure, the more sustainable the subsequent rebound is expected to be; $Copper Futures (DEC6) (HGmain.US)$ as the "electrification metal" for AI and new energy, the industrial logic remains intact.
3. Future Pricing Catalysts
Key focuses this week include the US July PCE data, Governor Waller's keynote speech, and developments in the US-Iran situation.
The US July PCE data will directly impact market assessments of the inflation trajectory and the scope for policy easing. Fed Governor Waller's keynote speech during the Jackson Hole Annual Economic Symposium (around the evening of August 28, Beijing time) serves as a crucial policy communication window ahead of the September FOMC meeting. The US-Iran situation and progress regarding the Strait of Hormuz will continue to influence oil prices and inflation expectations.
If inflation data and Governor Waller's remarks reinforce expectations for easing, it will be bullish for gold and silver; if they highlight sticky inflation or a hawkish policy stance, it could boost the US dollar and Treasury yields, putting short-term pressure on precious metals.Oil price fluctuations play more of a supporting role and are unlikely to independently determine interest rate pricing.
In the medium term, the strength of the recovery in gold and silver requires close monitoring of the Fed's September FOMC meeting and US Treasury supply.The FOMC decision will reprice expectations for the interest rate path. The pace of US Treasury issuance and volatility in long-end yields are precisely the core anchors for the medium-to-long-term pricing of gold. Market concerns about elevated long-term rates and fiscal sustainability have not dissipated, which is critical to whether gold can continue to trade on the logic of hedging against US dollar credit risks.
- Gold Futures: Directly tracks spot gold prices with ample liquidity, suitable for monitoring the pricing transmission of long-end interest rates and US dollar trends to precious metals.
- Silver Futures:Possessing both industrial and financial attributes, silver typically exhibits greater elasticity than gold, is more sensitive to changes in financial conditions, and experiences higher volatility.
- Copper Futures: Copper is correlated with gold and silver, but its pricing anchor leans more toward growth and supply. Keep an eye on inventory levels and the industry's supply-demand dynamics.
Fellow investors, among gold, silver, and copper, which one are you more bullish on?Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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