Pre-market Analysis: NVIDIA (NVDA) & Micron (MU)

Let's first review yesterday's broader market performance: all three major indices rose, $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.30%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.66%, ending a seven-day losing streak. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell 6.7 basis points to 4.634%. A sharp drop in oil prices (WTI down 3.12%) eased inflation concerns. NVIDIA rose 2.19%, halting a seven-day decline, while the memory sector rebounded in tandem. However, the Consumer Confidence Index hit a new low for the year at 89.4. The biggest event tonight:NVIDIA's earnings report after the market close on August 26。

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Market Recap: $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ NVIDIA has posted its first gain in two days following a seven-day losing streak. On August 24, it extended losses by 2.91%, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 2.7% and the memory sector collapsed, dragging down the entire AI chip supply chain. On August 25, it finally stabilized and rebounded 2.19% to close at $213.05, resulting in a slight cumulative decline of 0.78% over the two days. The rebound on August 25 coincided with the KDJ indicator's J-value dropping to an extremely oversold level of 0.9, indicating a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. Among 58 institutions, 96% maintain a Buy rating with an average price target of $317. However, market sentiment remains cautious, with options implying a post-earnings volatility of ±5.4–6%, corresponding to a market capitalization swing of approximately $280 billion, making it the largest single-day risk event in global capital markets.

Fundamentals: Q2 revenue is expected to be around $92 billion (+96% YoY), EPS around $2.09, and data center revenue around $85.4 billion (+107%). The Vera Rubin platform has been deployed across five major cloud providers, whose capital expenditures continue to rise, showing no signs of slowing demand for AI computing power. Short-term concerns include: controversy over $500 billion in 'circular financing,' intensifying competition from OpenAI's in-house chip development, and cost concerns triggered by a 15%+ price increase for GB300 servers. Q3 guidance is the key focus—exceeding $105 billion would be a positive surprise, while reaching $110 billion would be 'explosive.'

Technical Analysis: After rebounding from the oversold zone following a seven-day decline (KDJ J=0.9), the stock has moved above the MA60, MA120, and MA250 medium-to-long-term moving averages. However, the MACD has not yet confirmed a golden cross, suggesting the short term remains in a phase of volatile consolidation. Support levels are at $205/$195, and resistance levels are at $219/$234.

Price Forecast (1–2 Days): Earnings are the only variable. If results beat expectations by 25%, the range is $220–$236; if they meet expectations (45% probability), it will oscillate between $200–$220; if they miss expectations (30% probability), pressure will build in the $195–$205 range.Special note: The stock has fallen without exception on the day following earnings reports for the past four quarters,even when beating estimates and raising guidance, it suffered from 'buy the rumor, sell the news.' The probability of holding firmly above $220 is only 43%.

Micron Technology MU

Market Recap: $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Micron experienced a collapse followed by a rebound over the past two days. On August 24, it plunged 5.83%, briefly breaking below the $900 integer mark to a low of $887.61 during intraday trading, dragged down by the broad collapse of the memory sector. On August 25, it rebounded 2.48% on lower volume to close at $932.97, resulting in a cumulative two-day decline of 3.49%. The volume ratio on August 25 was only 0.68, clearly indicating shrinking volume, which suggests that bottom-fishing capital was not decisive and the strength of the rebound is questionable. Micron's current trend heavily depends on the direction of NVIDIA's earnings report—as the leader in the memory sector and a direct beneficiary of the AI computing supply chain, a beat by NVIDIA will drive a synchronized rebound for Micron, while a miss could lead to a second test of the $887 low or even lower.

Fundamentals: FY26 Q3 revenue reached $41.46 billion (+345% YoY), with a gross margin of 84.6%. Free cash flow hit a record high of $17.56 billion, driven by strong demand for AI-powered HBM and enterprise SSDs. TrendForce projects that memory will account for 68% of cloud providers' capital expenditures by 2027, supporting a solid medium-to-long-term thesis. Short-term headwinds include: Netlist's patent lawsuit seeking an ITC exclusion order (a loss could affect US exports of certain products); unconfirmed rumors of Apple shifting orders to Chinese memory suppliers; and GF Value's assessment indicating a 50.7% overvaluation. 47 institutions rate it as a Strong Buy, with an average target price of approximately $1,515.

Technical Analysis:Phase of intense volatility at highs， After breaking below 900 on 8/24, the price recovered above this level on 8/25, but the rebound lacked strength due to shrinking volume. Support levels are at 900/887; a breakdown could target 740. Resistance levels are at 944/965/1025.

Price Forecast (1–2 Days): Heavily dependent on NVIDIA's earnings reportIf results beat expectations (30% probability): target range $940–$970; if in line with expectations (45% probability): consolidation between $900–$945; if missing expectations (25% probability): under pressure in the $840–$890 range.

Disclaimer:The above content is based on public data and quantitative analysis and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice. The market involves risks, so invest with caution. Any investment decision should be made independently based on personal risk tolerance, financial status, and investment objectives, consulting licensed professional institutions when necessary. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

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