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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Aug 26 09:28 ·

The Hang Seng Index holds above 25,500 but hasn't turned bullish; US tech stocks rebound: My take on today's HK and US markets

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,511 points yesterday. Although the daily range was not significant, the market was far from calm. Large-cap tech stocks showed clear divergence: Meituan was weak, while Alibaba and Tencent remained relatively stable. In contrast, stocks with their own catalysts, such as Wuxi Bio and Kingboard, performed strongly. On the US front, the three major indices rebounded in tandem, with tech stocks leading the gain again. However, with NVIDIA's earnings just around the corner, the market is still waiting for an answer that could justify a repricing of the AI trade. My view is straightforward:Today is not a good day to chase the index. For Hong Kong stocks, stock selection is more important than market timing. For US stocks, I lean bullish, but I would prefer the S&P 500 over the Nasdaq 100.
Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ : 25,500 is not a level where I would place a heavy bet.
The HSI is currently at 25,511 points, still below the Bollinger Band middle line at 25,661 points. The upper band is around 26,134 points, and the lower band is around 25,189 points, with the RSI ranging between approximately 47 and 53. This position is quite awkward: it’s not weak enough to justify chasing bearish positions, nor strong enough to justify chasing bullish ones.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,511 points yesterday. While the daily range wasn't wide, the market was far from calm. Large-cap tech stocks showed clear divergence: Meituan was weak, while Alibaba and Tencent remained relatively stable. Stocks with their own catalysts, such as Wuxi Bio and Kingboard, performed strongly. In the US, all three major indices rebounded in sync, with tech stocks leading the gain again. However, with NVIDIA's earnings just around the corner, the market is still waiting for a catalyst that can justify repricing the AI trade. My view is straightforward:Today is not a good day to chase the index. For HK stocks, stock selection matters more than market timing. For US stocks, a bullish bias is acceptable, but I would prefer the S&P 500 over the Nasdaq-100. Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ : 25,500 is not a level where I would place heavy bets. The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,511 points, still below the Bollinger Band midline at 25,661 points. The upper band is around 26,134 points, and the lower band is around 25,189 points, with the RSI hovering between approximately 47 and 53. This is an awkward position: it's not weak enough to justify chasing bears, nor strong enough to justify chasing bulls. Therefore, around the 25,500 level, I won't place heavy bets on either side. If I want to go long, I'd rather wait until around 25,200 to see if there is support. If I want to go short, I'll wait for a rebound near 25,900 to 26,100.The biggest problem with forcing a trade now isn't necessarily being wrong about the direction, but rather that the risk-reward ratio itself is not attractive. For Hang Seng Index CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts), consider these categories first: If I absolutely had to choose now, I would lean towards CBBCs from issuers like UBS Group with a call price distance of around 5%, focusing more...
Therefore, around the 25,500 level, I won't take heavy positions on either side. If I want to go long, I’d rather wait until near 25,200 to see if there is support. If I want to go short, I’ll wait for a rebound closer to 25,900–26,100.The biggest issue with forcing a trade now isn't necessarily being wrong about the direction, but rather that the risk-reward ratio itself is not attractive.
For HSI CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts), you might consider these categories first:
The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,511 points yesterday. While the daily range wasn't wide, the market was far from calm. Large-cap tech stocks showed clear divergence: Meituan was weak, while Alibaba and Tencent remained relatively stable. Stocks with their own catalysts, such as Wuxi Bio and Kingboard, performed strongly. In the US, all three major indices rebounded in sync, with tech stocks leading the gain again. However, with NVIDIA's earnings just around the corner, the market is still waiting for a catalyst that can justify repricing the AI trade. My view is straightforward:Today is not a good day to chase the index. For HK stocks, stock selection matters more than market timing. For US stocks, a bullish bias is acceptable, but I would prefer the S&P 500 over the Nasdaq-100. Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ : 25,500 is not a level where I would place heavy bets. The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,511 points, still below the Bollinger Band midline at 25,661 points. The upper band is around 26,134 points, and the lower band is around 25,189 points, with the RSI hovering between approximately 47 and 53. This is an awkward position: it's not weak enough to justify chasing bears, nor strong enough to justify chasing bulls. Therefore, around the 25,500 level, I won't place heavy bets on either side. If I want to go long, I'd rather wait until around 25,200 to see if there is support. If I want to go short, I'll wait for a rebound near 25,900 to 26,100.The biggest problem with forcing a trade now isn't necessarily being wrong about the direction, but rather that the risk-reward ratio itself is not attractive. For Hang Seng Index CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts), consider these categories first: If I absolutely had to choose now, I would lean towards CBBCs from issuers like UBS Group with a call price distance of around 5%, focusing more...
If I had to choose right now, I would lean towards CBBCs from issuers like UBS Group with a call price distance of around 5%, rather than chasing at-the-money products with roughly 30x leverage. I believe it is more reasonable to sacrifice some leverage in exchange for greater room for normal volatility.
For more details on HSI and individual stock Calls, Puts, Bull Contracts, and Bear Contracts, please click to view “Warrant and Callable Bull/Bear Contract (CBBC) Product Overview”。
The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,511 points yesterday. While the daily range wasn't wide, the market was far from calm. Large-cap tech stocks showed clear divergence: Meituan was weak, while Alibaba and Tencent remained relatively stable. Stocks with their own catalysts, such as Wuxi Bio and Kingboard, performed strongly. In the US, all three major indices rebounded in sync, with tech stocks leading the gain again. However, with NVIDIA's earnings just around the corner, the market is still waiting for a catalyst that can justify repricing the AI trade. My view is straightforward:Today is not a good day to chase the index. For HK stocks, stock selection matters more than market timing. For US stocks, a bullish bias is acceptable, but I would prefer the S&P 500 over the Nasdaq-100. Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ : 25,500 is not a level where I would place heavy bets. The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,511 points, still below the Bollinger Band midline at 25,661 points. The upper band is around 26,134 points, and the lower band is around 25,189 points, with the RSI hovering between approximately 47 and 53. This is an awkward position: it's not weak enough to justify chasing bears, nor strong enough to justify chasing bulls. Therefore, around the 25,500 level, I won't place heavy bets on either side. If I want to go long, I'd rather wait until around 25,200 to see if there is support. If I want to go short, I'll wait for a rebound near 25,900 to 26,100.The biggest problem with forcing a trade now isn't necessarily being wrong about the direction, but rather that the risk-reward ratio itself is not attractive. For Hang Seng Index CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts), consider these categories first: If I absolutely had to choose now, I would lean towards CBBCs from issuers like UBS Group with a call price distance of around 5%, focusing more...
Alibaba $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ : I remain bullish, because it’s not just about the stock price rebounding right now
Alibaba closed at HK$114.2 yesterday. Chairman Joe Tsai increased his holdings by another 720,000 shares at an average price of approximately HK$113.47. Previously, the company just completed an HK$80 billion share placement, with all proceeds allocated to AI-related investments. Joe Tsai and CEO Eddie Wu collectively increased their holdings by over HK$200 million in two days.
This gives the area around HK$113 a hint of a "management cost basis zone." I remain bullish, but I won't chase high-leverage call options (10x+) just on the news of increased holdings. Currently, call options with about 5-7x leverage and strike prices near the current market price are sufficient. If the stock holds above HK$114, I will continue to look higher; if it falls back below the placement price, I will need to reassess.
Tencent $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : You can go long, but today is not the best use of capital.
Tencent is currently trading at HK$442. The trend shows no significant weakness, and its product lineup is comprehensive. The only issue is that there are clearer catalysts in the market today than for Tencent.So I remain bullish, but rank it after Alibaba.
If using calls, I would choose those closer to the money with about 7-10x leverage. If using callable bull contracts (CBCs), I dislike products with a call price around HK$427, which offers only a ~3% buffer; I would prefer stepping back to around HK$410. Getting the direction right is one thing; whether the product can withstand normal volatility is another.
Meituan $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ : A sharp decline does not necessarily mean it's worth buying the dip.
Meituan is currently trading at HK$77.2, clearly underperforming other large-cap tech stocks yesterday. This level easily triggers the sentiment of "it has fallen so much, it should rebound soon."
My answer remains: do not buy the dip. The issue isn't a lack of call options to choose from, but rather that the underlying stock itself lacks sufficient evidence to prove that selling pressure has ended. If support starts forming around HKD 77, I will reassess; until then, I don't think it's necessary to use products with time decay to guess the bottom.
Wuxi Bio $WUXI BIO (02269.HK)$ : This one is worth continuing to follow, as it’s not purely driven by sentiment speculation.
Wuxi Bio showed significant strength yesterday. I wouldn't interpret this movement simply as short-term speculation. What truly matters is that the market is re-evaluating innovative drugs, outsourced R&D demand, and earnings improvement.For rallies supported by fundamental data, I am willing to go with the trend, but I won't chase with high-leverage calls anymore.
If the stock opens too aggressively higher after the earnings release, I would instead wait for the first round of profit-taking to be absorbed. The directional bias can remain bullish, but there is no need to rush into trades.
Kingboard Laminates $KB LAMINATES (01888.HK)$ : The story is real, but after a single-day surge, the risk-reward ratio is no longer the same.
Kingboard Laminates has recently outperformed, driven by PCB and AI server demand as well as earnings expectations. This type of stock most easily leads people to confuse two things:Just because a company is worth being bullish on doesn't mean it's worth chasing at the current level.
I remain biased towards the upside, but if it has already risen by double digits in a day, using calls to chase further amplifies IV, pullback, and time decay risks. My approach would be to wait for confirmation on a dip, rather than fearing missing out on another leg up.
HKEX $HKEX (00388.HK)$ : News may not necessarily cause it to skyrocket, but I wouldn't ignore such fundamentals.
The Hong Kong IPO market is regaining momentum, which directly benefits the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX). Shein's Hong Kong IPO, sized at approximately $1.8 billion, has been fully subscribed and is scheduled to list on September 1, reflecting sustained real capital demand for large-cap new listings in Hong Kong.
HKEX may not be the most exciting short-term trade today, but if IPO activity and trading volumes remain robust, its earnings visibility is actually higher than that of many pure concept stocks. For this type of stock, I would look for call options after a pullback, rather than chasing the price after a sudden spike.
JD.com $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ : I will start paying attention, not because of the share price, but due to capital allocation strategies.
Stocks like JD.com do not always surge immediately on the day news breaks. However, if the company continues to expand its logistics, infrastructure, or Hong Kong operations, the market may gradually re-rate its assets and cash flow utilization.
Therefore, I am not buying JD.com immediately; instead, I have added it to my watchlist. If the stock price breaks out with heavy volume, then considering call options makes sense; if there is only news without follow-through capital, do not treat the narrative as a trading signal for now.
Ping An Insurance $PING AN (02318.HK)$ : For this type of earnings-driven stock, I am more inclined to take a closer look.
Insurance stocks often do not experience single-day surges like tech stocks, but improvements in profits, investment income, and asset management businesses usually have a more tangible impact on valuation.
For stocks like Ping An Insurance, if earnings continue to improve, I would categorize them as 'consider on pullbacks' rather than 'chase on rallies.' It may not be the hottest pick today, but if you are looking for an HK stock driven more by earnings support and less by sentiment, this type is worth watching.
Xiaomi $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ : There are many products available, but there isn't enough reason to rush into a trade today.
Xiaomi is currently trading at HK$27.76. While there are plenty of options for Calls, Puts, and CBBCs,the availability of products does not necessarily mean there is a trading opportunity. Today, it lacks the clear catalysts seen with Alibaba, the extreme weakness seen with Meituan, or the earnings-driven momentum seen with Wuxi Bio and Kingboard.
So my answer is:Neutral for now. Wait for a clear directional trend before deciding whether to use leverage.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,511 points yesterday. While the daily range wasn't wide, the market was far from calm. Large-cap tech stocks showed clear divergence: Meituan was weak, while Alibaba and Tencent remained relatively stable. Stocks with their own catalysts, such as Wuxi Bio and Kingboard, performed strongly. In the US, all three major indices rebounded in sync, with tech stocks leading the gain again. However, with NVIDIA's earnings just around the corner, the market is still waiting for a catalyst that can justify repricing the AI trade. My view is straightforward:Today is not a good day to chase the index. For HK stocks, stock selection matters more than market timing. For US stocks, a bullish bias is acceptable, but I would prefer the S&P 500 over the Nasdaq-100. Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ : 25,500 is not a level where I would place heavy bets. The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,511 points, still below the Bollinger Band midline at 25,661 points. The upper band is around 26,134 points, and the lower band is around 25,189 points, with the RSI hovering between approximately 47 and 53. This is an awkward position: it's not weak enough to justify chasing bears, nor strong enough to justify chasing bulls. Therefore, around the 25,500 level, I won't place heavy bets on either side. If I want to go long, I'd rather wait until around 25,200 to see if there is support. If I want to go short, I'll wait for a rebound near 25,900 to 26,100.The biggest problem with forcing a trade now isn't necessarily being wrong about the direction, but rather that the risk-reward ratio itself is not attractive. For Hang Seng Index CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts), consider these categories first: If I absolutely had to choose now, I would lean towards CBBCs from issuers like UBS Group with a call price distance of around 5%, focusing more...
Regarding the three major US indices: If I could only choose one tonight, I would still pick the S&P 500.
Last night, all three major US stock indices rebounded. The Dow Jones $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ rose 0.30%, the S&P 500 $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ rose 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ rose 0.66%; NVIDIA rose 2.2%, Meta rose nearly 2%, and AMD rose 4.9%, with tech stocks once again driving the market.
However, I won't automatically choose the Nasdaq-100 just because tech stocks posted the largest gains.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,511 points yesterday. While the daily range wasn't wide, the market was far from calm. Large-cap tech stocks showed clear divergence: Meituan was weak, while Alibaba and Tencent remained relatively stable. Stocks with their own catalysts, such as Wuxi Bio and Kingboard, performed strongly. In the US, all three major indices rebounded in sync, with tech stocks leading the gain again. However, with NVIDIA's earnings just around the corner, the market is still waiting for a catalyst that can justify repricing the AI trade. My view is straightforward:Today is not a good day to chase the index. For HK stocks, stock selection matters more than market timing. For US stocks, a bullish bias is acceptable, but I would prefer the S&P 500 over the Nasdaq-100. Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ : 25,500 is not a level where I would place heavy bets. The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,511 points, still below the Bollinger Band midline at 25,661 points. The upper band is around 26,134 points, and the lower band is around 25,189 points, with the RSI hovering between approximately 47 and 53. This is an awkward position: it's not weak enough to justify chasing bears, nor strong enough to justify chasing bulls. Therefore, around the 25,500 level, I won't place heavy bets on either side. If I want to go long, I'd rather wait until around 25,200 to see if there is support. If I want to go short, I'll wait for a rebound near 25,900 to 26,100.The biggest problem with forcing a trade now isn't necessarily being wrong about the direction, but rather that the risk-reward ratio itself is not attractive. For Hang Seng Index CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts), consider these categories first: If I absolutely had to choose now, I would lean towards CBBCs from issuers like UBS Group with a call price distance of around 5%, focusing more...
If I could only make one trade tonight, I would go long on the S&P 500. It has returned to near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, offering the most balanced structure; the Dow is relatively strong but not far from its previous highs; although the Nasdaq-100 has rebounded, it remains below the middle band, and NVIDIA's earnings are just around the corner.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,511 points yesterday. While the daily range wasn't wide, the market was far from calm. Large-cap tech stocks showed clear divergence: Meituan was weak, while Alibaba and Tencent remained relatively stable. Stocks with their own catalysts, such as Wuxi Bio and Kingboard, performed strongly. In the US, all three major indices rebounded in sync, with tech stocks leading the gain again. However, with NVIDIA's earnings just around the corner, the market is still waiting for a catalyst that can justify repricing the AI trade. My view is straightforward:Today is not a good day to chase the index. For HK stocks, stock selection matters more than market timing. For US stocks, a bullish bias is acceptable, but I would prefer the S&P 500 over the Nasdaq-100. Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ : 25,500 is not a level where I would place heavy bets. The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,511 points, still below the Bollinger Band midline at 25,661 points. The upper band is around 26,134 points, and the lower band is around 25,189 points, with the RSI hovering between approximately 47 and 53. This is an awkward position: it's not weak enough to justify chasing bears, nor strong enough to justify chasing bulls. Therefore, around the 25,500 level, I won't place heavy bets on either side. If I want to go long, I'd rather wait until around 25,200 to see if there is support. If I want to go short, I'll wait for a rebound near 25,900 to 26,100.The biggest problem with forcing a trade now isn't necessarily being wrong about the direction, but rather that the risk-reward ratio itself is not attractive. For Hang Seng Index CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts), consider these categories first: If I absolutely had to choose now, I would lean towards CBBCs from issuers like UBS Group with a call price distance of around 5%, focusing more...
NVIDIA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ : I am bullish on the company, but I won't buy the most aggressive calls before the earnings release.
NVIDIA's earnings report is the most significant event for the US stock market tonight. The market expects Q2 revenue to be approximately $92.18 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year. Additionally, investors will be closely watching progress on the Rubin chip, AI capital expenditure trends, and whether the company's provision of large-scale financing support to AI clients begins to increase risk.
My stance is moderately bullish, but the products chosen must be conservative. The key question ahead of earnings isn't whether the company is good, but "how good it needs to be to exceed the market's already high expectations." If using Hong Kong-listed call warrants to participate, I would prefer products that are closer to at-the-money and have lower leverage.
AMD $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ : It rose 4.9% yesterday, but I’m not inclined to chase the rally.
AMD surged 4.9% after brokers upgraded its rating, showing stronger short-term momentum than NVIDIA.
But this is also why I am in no rush to chase.If NVIDIA’s earnings are strong, AMD may follow suit; if NVIDIA disappoints, AMD, having already run up significantly, could correct even faster. So while the direction can be moderately bullish, it is not the most compelling name to chase calls on today.
Micron $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ : I will start paying attention, as memory costs have become part of the AI supply chain.
NVIDIA-related server prices are reportedly set to increase by more than 15% due to rising memory costs. This issue not only affects NVIDIA but also prompts the market to re-evaluate the memory supply chain. Reuters also noted that Micron rebounded 2.5% yesterday.
MU isn't the hottest stock today, but there's a clear logic at play: AI demand is no longer just hyping GPUs; memory costs are also becoming part of the pricing for the entire AI infrastructure. If the price trend continues, I’ll be more willing to add it to my call options watchlist than before.
Meta $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ : Bullish bias, but not the main focus today
Meta rose nearly 2% last night, and large-cap tech stocks overall have stabilized.
I remain bullish on Meta, but today’s major event risk is concentrated on NVIDIA, so Meta is only a secondary choice.If the AI trade regains strength, it will benefit; if the market starts questioning AI capex, it won’t be able to stay completely unaffected either.
Moderna $Moderna (MRNA.US)$ : After a 14% rise, I’ll keep an eye on the news but won’t chase the product.
Moderna surged 14% yesterday, mainly due to brokers raising their target prices and renewed market focus on the results of its skin cancer vaccine trial in collaboration with Merck.
This kind of news is worth watching, but it doesn’t mean there are necessarily enough tradable products in the Hong Kong market. If product liquidity is insufficient, I’d rather treat it merely as a sentiment indicator for the US stock market than force myself to find warrants.
Dick’s Sporting Goods $Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS.US)$ : Down 30%. This isn't a case of "what goes down must bounce back."
Dick’s Sporting Goods shares plunged over 30% in a single day after the company lowered its full-year forecast.
Such a steep drop is tempting for those looking to play a rebound, butwhen the decline stems from lowered earnings expectations rather than mere market panic, I wouldn't rush to buy the dip immediately. It’s usually safer to let the market reprice first and then look for a rebound, rather than trying to catch a falling knife on day one.
So, what's the outlook for today?
If we look at both HK and US stocks together, my answer today is actually quite simple:
I’m not chasing the Hang Seng Index. For HK stocks, I’m focusing on Alibaba, Wuxi Bio, and HKEX; still avoiding Meituan. On the US side, I prefer the S&P 500 over the Nasdaq 100. NVIDIA looks bullish, but avoid using maximum leverage ahead of its earnings report.
The real key isn't to chase on news or buy the dip on sharp drops, but to ask:Has this news truly altered the valuation of the company or the market? If so, identify another instrument with a reasonable risk-reward profile to express this view.
For more details on call options, put options, bullish contracts, and bearish contracts for the Hang Seng Index, HK stocks, US indices, and US individual stocks, click to view. “Warrant and Callable Bull/Bear Contract (CBBC) Product Overview”。
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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