The Nasdaq pulled back while the Dow showed resilience, with consumer staples emerging as a safe hav

Henry秒懂美股

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US Stock Pre-Market Sentinel (08/25)

I. Market Environment

Yesterday (Aug 24), the Nasdaq dropped another 200 points, marking its seventh consecutive daily decline—the longest losing streak in this correction cycle. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.7%, dragging down chip stocks across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend to close higher, supported by banks and consumer staples, as capital continued to rotate from AI hardware into defensive sectors.

Pre-market today (Aug 25): All three major index futures are up, with Nasdaq futures rising approximately 0.75%. Japan's Nikkei closed up 0.50%, while South Korea's KOSPI opened lower but rallied to close up 0.68% (having dipped more than 4% intraday). International oil prices tumbled 3% (WTI crude fell below $83, Brent below $88) as Pakistan-mediated efforts eased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a unwind of the geopolitical premium. US Treasury yields retreated (10-year at 4.696%, 30-year at 5.225%).

Note: Yesterday's hardest-hit sectors were memory storage, optical communications, and AI computing power. SanDisk and Seagate dropped over 6%; Micron and Western Digital fell more than 5%; SK Hynix declined nearly 5%. Applied Optoelectronics plummeted 13.77%, while Lumentum and Coherent dropped over 4%. CoreWeave and NEBIUS also declined in tandem. The direct trigger for the memory sector's drop was that details of Samsung's shareholder return plan fell short of expectations (dividends were lower than expected, and no stock buyback was announced).

Strategy: After seven consecutive daily declines, the Nasdaq is approaching the psychological barrier of 26,000. Both bulls and bears should exercise caution here. The pre-market rebound in memory and optical communication stocks suggests that yesterday's panic involved some oversold conditions, but the true direction will depend on NVIDIA's earnings report and Fed Chair Waller's speech on Friday. Look for a rebound above 26,000; only a firm hold above 26,300 confirms stabilization. Keep position sizes light and avoid betting on direction before the earnings release.

2. NVIDIA (NVDA)

Resistance: 230

Support: 190–200

Key News: The stock closed at 208.48 (-2.91%), marking its seventh consecutive day of decline—the longest losing streak since 2022—while its market cap barely held above $5 trillion. Since August 14, the cumulative decline stands at 7.5%.

FY2027 Q2 earnings will be released after hours on August 26. Market consensus expects revenue of approximately $92 billion (up ~97% YoY), while company guidance is $91 billion ±2%. The options market is pricing in a two-way move of about 5.4% post-earnings (implying a market cap swing of roughly $280 billion), which is lower than the 6.5% seen before May and the 7.4% average over the past 12 quarters—indicating a "calm" market sentiment.

Strategy: The seven-day losing streak has pushed earnings expectations to a relatively low level, improving the risk-reward ratio for building positions in tranches below 200. However, avoid heavy positioning or trying to guess the bottom before the earnings release. Earnings are the core variable: If revenue exceeds $95 billion and Q3 guidance is raised, chase the breakout on the right side; if it misses expectations, watch for support at the 200 level, with 190 as the next downside target if 200 breaks.

3. Tesla (TSLA)

Resistance: 370–390

Support: 330

Key News: Closed at 348.95 (-3.83%) on August 24, pulling back with the tech sector and failing to hold above 350 at the close.

Last Friday (August 22), it bucked the trend with a 5.14% surge, catalyzed by Nevada's approval for Robotaxi operations in Clark County; Cybercab is expected to launch publicly in Austin as early as late August. The Roadster is scheduled for release this month (featuring cold gas thrusters developed in collaboration with SpaceX). Musk stated that the first satellites equipped with NVIDIA AI chips will launch next year, and SpaceX plans to send data centers into space starting next year (a long-term narrative with no near-term financial impact). JPMorgan maintains a Neutral rating with a price target of $445.

Outlook: Repeated battles are occurring below the 370 level, with 340–350 serving as the short-term equilibrium zone. Despite a year-to-date decline of approximately 25%, a short-term recovery pattern is taking shape. However, avoid chasing after prolonged gains; wait for a pullback to identify entry points.

Strategy: Accumulate in tranches below 340; reduce positions for swing trading during rebounds to the 370–390 range. 330 is the critical trend support level; exit and wait on the sidelines if it breaks. Event-driven catalysts (Cybercab/Roadster) should be viewed only as triggers, not as primary reasons to buy.

4. Micron (MU)

Resistance: 1,000

Support: 850–900

Key News: Closed at 910.43 on Aug 24 (-5.83%), with turnover of $27.1 billion, ranking second across the entire market. It just hit a record high of 974 on Aug 20, giving back nearly 7% in just two trading sessions.

Direct trigger for the sharp decline: Samsung's shareholder return plan fell short of expectations (Q3 dividends missed estimates, no share buyback announced, shareholder payout ratio maintained at 50%), dragging down the entire memory sector. Fundamentals remain unchanged: Micron's CEO stated that data center customers' purchasing intent is approximately 150% of the company's actual committable supply, indicating the AI memory demand thesis remains intact. Goldman Sachs raised its global semiconductor equipment spending forecast for 2026–2028 to $150 billion, $218 billion, and $281 billion respectively, predicting that DRAM supply tightness will persist until 2028—institutional endorsement of the upcycle in the memory sector remains strong. Pre-market rebound on Aug 25: Micron +2.23%, with the broader memory sector rebounding collectively.

Strategy: As long as 850 holds, the short-term trend remains intact. Look for a rebound to 960–1,000. Range-bound trading is safer ahead of the earnings report (late September).

5. Western Digital (WDC)

Resistance: 550

Support: 400

Key Update: On Aug 24, the stock fell 5.24%, ranking among the top decliners as the memory sector suffered a broad sell-off; it rebounded over 2.6% in pre-market trading on Aug 25. SanDisk (SNDK), also in the memory space, plunged 6.45% to $1,493 on Aug 24, with intraday losses exceeding 10% at one point.

Overall Logic for the Memory Sector: Strong AI demand (Micron CEO cited a 150% purchasing intent), but concerns over Samsung's dividends falling short of expectations and the sustainability of AI capital expenditures triggered profit-taking in high-valuation memory stocks.

Assessment: WDC is a relatively weak name within the memory sector. It saw significant gains earlier but also experienced deep pullbacks. While it participates in sector rebounds, its elasticity is lower than that of Micron.

Strategy: Play the rebound only, not the trend. The $420–$450 range is a watch zone; consider entering only if volume stabilizes. Currently positioned on the left side of the curve, swing trading is difficult, and we do not recommend allocating excessive capital in the short term.

6. SpaceX (SPCX)

Resistance: 150

Support: 110–115

Key Update: Closed at $135.00 (-1.44%) on Aug 24, breaking below the IPO price threshold of $135; rebounded over 1.8% in pre-market trading on Aug 25.

Selling pressure from the second wave of 320 million shares unlocking (on Aug 20) is still being absorbed. Analyst Ed Elson previously warned that there are seven more lock-up expirations before year-end. Valuation debates persist: some argue its intrinsic value is only $10–$30, while other institutions remain bullish. On Aug 24, blue-chip stocks led the gains (Visa +3.07%, Walmart +2.69%), but SPCX failed to keep pace. News: Musk announced that the first batch of satellites equipped with NVIDIA AI chips will launch next year, advancing SpaceX's plan to put data centers in space (long-term narrative).

Assessment: $135 is both the IPO price and a psychological barrier. After breaking this level, the stock needs to regain footing to restore confidence. Rebound upside remains limited under the pressure of share unlockings.

Strategy: Prioritize avoidance. For existing positions, consider small additions if the stock stabilizes around 135. Conservative investors should wait until all remaining lock-up expirations are fully resolved (by year-end) before considering entry; do not attempt to catch a falling knife.

7. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

Resistance: 440

Support: 400

Key News: On 8/24, it fell 2.11% to approximately 410, showing relative resilience amid a sharp decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (smaller drop than AMD's -3.49% and Broadcom's -2.63%).

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for semiconductor equipment spending, with the foundry segment benefiting from Taiwan Semiconductor's massive capacity expansion for its N2 (2nm) process—strengthening the long-term thesis. Demand for CoWoS advanced packaging exceeds supply, with order spillover to Intel's Malaysia facility; full capacity utilization is the key focus. Pre-market on 8/25: Memory and equipment sectors rose together, suggesting Taiwan Semiconductor may follow the rise in Philly Semiconductor futures.

Strategy: 400 represents the lower bound of the recent consolidation range. If it breaks below this level, look for stabilization signals to enter in batches. If it holds firmly above 420, target 440. Taiwan Semiconductor has the deepest moat among chip stocks; the pullback before the October earnings report is a window for positioning, not a reason to exit.

8. Meta (META)

Resistance: 615

Support: 540

Key Update: Closed at ~559 on 8/24 (+1.66%), bucking the broader tech sell-off with the strongest performance among the Magnificent Seven.

The EU's $1.4 trillion GDPR fine remains a potential black swan risk, but there has been no substantive progress in the short term. Market recognition of AI monetization (ads + AI recommendations) is driving capital rotation from AI hardware to AI applications/platforms. Pre-market up 0.4% on 8/25.

Outlook: Having broken above 550, near-term momentum is bullish; the consolidation range is 540–560, with upside potential only opening upon a breakout above 580.

Strategy: Buy on dips near 540 and take profits near 580–600. If the EU fine is actually imposed, it could present a buying opportunity—Meta's AI monetization thesis remains intact, and its valuation is the most reasonable among the Magnificent Seven.

[Key Calendar for This Week]

8/25: US August Consumer Confidence Index; earnings from Dick’s Sporting Goods, Intuit, and Zoom

8/26: July PCE price index + Q2 GDP revision (pre-market); 🔴 NVIDIA earnings (post-market, key variable)

8/27–29: Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Symposium

8/28: Fed Chair Powell speaks—if signals hint at resuming rate hikes, 30-year US Treasury yields could surge to 5.5%, pressuring tech stocks; if dovish, the rebound will continue.

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