Pre-market Analysis: Broadcom (AVGO) & Apple (AAPL)

Market Overview

The three major indices closed mixed yesterday,$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ the Dow Jones rose 0.26%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ the S&P 500 fell 0.28%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ and the Nasdaq dropped 0.76% (marking its seventh consecutive daily decline, the longest losing streak since 2022); $PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$ the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slid 2.7%, with the memory chip sector plunging across the board ( $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ SanDisk -6.45%, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Micron -5.83%), $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ while NVIDIA extended its losing streak to seven days, falling 2.91%. Capital flowed into consumer staples (+1.76%) and financials (+1.24%) as safe havens, pushing spot gold above $4,680. US Treasury yields retreated to 4.696%, amid reports that the Treasury Department plans to use over $1 trillion from the TGA account to buy back bonds. The key variables this week are NVIDIA's earnings report on August 26 and Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Broadcom (AVGO)

Market Recap: $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ Broadcom has continued its weak performance over the past two days. It saw a slight rebound of 1.21% on August 21, but fell another 2.63% on August 24, closing at $358.76, for a cumulative two-day decline of 1.44%. On August 24, the SOX index plummeted 2.7%, and the memory sector collapsed (SanDisk down 6.45%, Micron down 5.83%), dragging Broadcom lower in a systemic semiconductor sell-off. Concerns persist regarding the revaluation of "core supplier scarcity" after Marvell secured a $12.2 billion custom chip deal with Google, compounded by Q3 AI revenue guidance of $16 billion missing the expected $17.2 billion, antitrust scrutiny of VMware, and concerns over AI financing debt. Despite signs of oversold conditions after several days of declines, bears remain dominant. Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating with a $525 price target, arguing that competitive concerns are overpriced.

Fundamentals: The company's dual engines of AI semiconductors (custom ASICs + networking chips) and VMware software drive medium-to-long-term growth. AI chip revenue remains in a phase of rapid volume expansion, supported by a deep moat in SerDes and switching chips. Short-term headwinds are concentrated on the reassessment of the competitive landscape and missed guidance expectations, but the fundamental logic remains intact as AI capital expenditure continues to expand. To summarize in one sentence:Buying Broadcom = Buying the volume and price increases in the AI computing power capex cycle + the expansion elasticity of AI financing leverage.

Technical Analysis: The stock is extremely oversold, with the 6-day RSI at just 21 and the J-value of the KDJ indicator at -9. However, all moving averages have been broken, indicating a clearly bearish trend. Support lies between 350–357, while resistance is found at 366–387.

Price Forecast (1–2 Days): NVIDIA's earnings report is the biggest variable: (25% probability) If earnings beat expectations, sentiment in the AI sector will reverse, driving Broadcom to rebound to 365–370; (50% probability) If earnings slightly miss expectations, Broadcom will see a technical rebound to 362–366 before facing resistance and pulling back, remaining within the 350–370 range; (25% probability) If NVIDIA's guidance falls short of expectations, the AI narrative will weaken, causing Broadcom to break below 350 and test 345–348.

Apple AAPL

Market Recap: $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Apple has shown significant safe-haven characteristics over the past two days. It dipped slightly by 0.63% on August 21, but rose 0.32% against the trend on August 24 amid extreme market conditions where the Nasdaq closed lower for seven consecutive sessions and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted, closing at $310.34. The cumulative decline over the two days was only 0.32%. As capital flows out of the tech sector significantly, Apple has become a 'defensive haven' within the tech sector, thanks to its stable cash flow, low debt ratio, and consumer staple-like attributes. The trend of funds flowing into the consumer sector (+1.76%) also indirectly benefits Apple. The product launch event on September 9 is expected to be the biggest near-term catalyst, with market expectations focused on AI feature upgrades for the iPhone 17 series.

Fundamentals: The company's Q3 revenue returned to growth, service business revenue continued to hit new highs, and gross margins remained elevated. The AI strategy is gradually being implemented—Apple Intelligence is driving expectations for a replacement cycle. If substantive AI features (on-device large language models, deep Siri restructuring) are announced at the September event, it could trigger a super-cycle of device upgrades. With reasonable valuation and strong cash flow, it is a high-quality defensive asset in a high-interest-rate environment. To summarize in one sentence:Buying Apple = Buying the defensive value of a 'non-combatant' in the AI arms race + the product cycle of the iPhone 18/foldable devices.

Technical Analysis:The MACD green histogram is narrowing, and both RSI and KDJ are in the neutral zone around 50, indicating that selling pressure is not heavy but there is also a lack of upward momentum. The stock price is oscillating narrowly within the dense moving average cluster of MA5–MA20 (308–313), awaiting a directional choice. Support lies at 308.2–309.2, while resistance is at 312.9–313.4. Volatility is significantly lower than other tech stocks in the same sector, highlighting its strong resilience to declines.

Price Forecast (1–2 Days): The base case scenario (approximately 55% probability) involves narrow oscillation between 308–314, showing relative resilience to declines. A breakout above 314 with increased volume would open up upside potential toward 320.

Disclaimer:The above content is based on public data and quantitative analysis and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice. The market involves risks, so invest with caution. Any investment decision should be made independently based on personal risk tolerance, financial status, and investment objectives, consulting licensed professional institutions when necessary. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

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