Preview of Major Events This Week: NVIDIA Earnings Incoming, Waller Makes Jackson Hole Debut!

This week, global markets face a rare convergence of three main themes:Jerome Powell's debut at Jackson Hole (Fed policy), $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$earnings (validation of AI capital expenditure), and Bessent's sanctions & debt restructuring (dual pressures from fiscal and geopolitical fronts).More notably, Wednesday (August 26) warrants caution,The Core PCE price index and revised GDP figures are scheduled to be released on the same day, which is expected to significantly increase market volatility risk.

Last Week's Market Review

at$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$and$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$For example, the medium-term bullish structure of SPY remains intact, with the price continuing to hold above the 60-day EMA ($749.12),and the overall trend remains within a technical bull market range.However, since the formation of a strong bullish candle hitting a high of $779.37 on August 13, the market landscape has shifted noticeably. This was followed by consecutive bearish candles and a gradual decline in closing prices,with bears dominating the short-term rhythm and a clear downward trend emerging.

The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level at $764.55 serves as the nearest support; the $762.33 level corresponds to the confluence zone of the 20-day MA and the middle Bollinger Band,if this level is breached, there is a risk of deeper correction; below,the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at $755.38 will become the next key reference point.

On the resistance side,The first hurdle for a short-term rebound lies at the 10-day EMA ($767.59),Whether it can effectively recover is a key reference for judging if the short-term trend is strengthening;The recent rebound high of $769.06 above constitutes strong resistance.

The medium-term bullish structure of QQQ has not been fundamentally damaged, with the price still trading above the 60-day EMA ($705.72),maintaining the technical definition of a bull market. However, the short-term structure has clearly weakened,and bulls have yet to demonstrate an effective counterattack recently.

On the support side,$709.19, where the Bollinger Bands' middle line coincides with the 20-day MA, serves as core support;if this level is breached, it may trigger warnings of accelerated bearish downside;the 60-day EMA below ($705.73) acts as the medium-term bull-bear dividing line,once the price effectively breaks below this line, the medium-term bullish structure will face more severe tests.

On the resistance side,The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $714.71, hovering above the current closing price, constitutes the first resistance to a breakout; the 10-day EMA at $717.22 also forms short-term moving average resistance;If the market sees a significant rebound,the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $727.37 will be the first major resistance level for the rebound.

Overview of Major Events This Week

🗓️ Monday (August 24)

Keywords:Bessent, Iran sanctions, debt restructuring

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessentwill hold a press conference during Monday's U.S. trading session to announce details of a new round of economic sanctions against Iran,Iran has explicitly designated participating countries in the sanctions as hostile targets, and the risk premium for the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been fully priced in;a new fiscal consolidation plan is also being released simultaneously,The direction of increased volume in long-term bond repos is confirmed, but its effectiveness in suppressing 30-year yields remains questionable.

🗓️ Wednesday (August 26)

Keywords:PCE, GDP, NVIDIA earnings

Core PCE month-over-month rate and Q2 GDP revised figuresTo be released at 20:30 on Wednesday;Meanwhile, the global market is closely watchingNVIDIA's earnings will be announced after the bell,serving as the ultimate test for the AI capital expenditure cycle.

🗓️ Friday (August 28)

Keywords:Jackson Hole, Waller speech, non-farm payrolls benchmark revision, Consumer Confidence Index, Meituan earnings

Initial estimate of the nonfarm payroll benchmark revisionwill be released at 22:00 that evening,used to determine whether previous employment data was systematically overestimated, which will directly impact the market's reassessment of recession probabilities; the new Fed ChairWarsh will make his debut speech at Jackson Hole.

Meanwhile, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$$MONTAGE TECH (06809.HK)$$ILUVATAR COREX (09903.HK)$ among other companieswill release their latest earnings on that day.

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