US Stocks Weekly: Orderly Correction Before the "Super Week"; AI Hardware Pullback Presents an Opportunity

Last week (Aug 17–21), the three major US stock indices ended their three-week winning streak, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ the Nasdaq fell 2.05%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ the S&P 500 dropped 1.43%, $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.85%. On the surface, this looked like an index correction, but in reality, it was a major sector rotation: capital flowed out of AI and semiconductors and into healthcare, energy, and precious metals, reflecting a classic defensive shift.

Four Main Themes and One Underlying Current

The healthcare sector emerged as the biggest winner. $Moderna (MRNA.US)$ Moderna surged 129% in a single week following the success of its Phase III clinical trials for an mRNA cancer vaccine, driving healthcare ETFs up by 4.91% and leading the broader market.

The energy sector followed closely, with oil prices rising 5% amid Iranian military movements in the Strait of Hormuz; the sector has rebounded 20% from its July lows. Gold broke through $4,600, marking its third consecutive weekly gain, supported by a trifecta of a weakening US dollar, expanding fiscal deficits, and continued gold purchases by global central banks.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin rose 22% over the week, lifting crypto-related stocks: $Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ HOOD up 14%, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ COIN up 8%, but 190,000 traders have already been liquidated at these highs, sending a clear signal of leverage risk.

The underlying story is the sharp decline in the semiconductor sector. $PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$ The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.61% for the week, dropping 4.98% in a single day on August 18, with memory chip stocks suffering broad-based declines; $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ SanDisk down 9%, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Micron down 7%, $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ SK Hynix down 9%. The core catalyst was the 30-year US Treasury yield hitting a new high since 2007 at 5.273%; the surge in long-end rates directly crushed high-valuation growth stocks, compounded by market concerns over the sustainability of AI financing.

Key Focus This Week

This week (Aug 24–28) is a veritable "Super Week," with three major events converging to determine the market's medium-term direction. On Wednesday (Aug 26), the July PCE data and the Q2 GDP revision will be released, while NVIDIA will report its Q2 earnings after hours; its revenue and forward guidance will set the valuation anchor for the entire AI supply chain. On Thursday (Aug 27), the Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Symposium kicks off, coinciding with Marvell Technology's earnings release. On Friday (Aug 28), incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his debut speech at Jackson Hole, where the market will look for policy signals regarding the September rate decision.

Stock Forecasts for This Week

$Moderna (MRNA.US)$ Moderna surged 177% in a single day to $174 on Aug 19 following successful Phase III trials for its mRNA cancer vaccine, only to retract 23% to $133 by Thursday. The company still reported a Q2 loss of $782 million, with an unclear commercialization timeline. Historical patterns suggest biotech stocks typically give back 20–30% of gains after major clinical data releases.We predict high-level consolidation within the $120–$155 range this week as the market digests recent moves. We will reassess once the price stabilizes around $120.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ NVIDIA pulled back to $215 ahead of its earnings report, with a forward P/E of 24x, significantly lower than the 35x seen during the same period in 2024–2025. It will report Q2 results after hours on Wednesday, with expected revenue of $92–94 billion (+96% YoY). NVIDIA has beaten guidance for several consecutive quarters; key factors to watch are whether it can maintain a free cash flow (FCF) margin of 53% and its Q3 guidance.If revenue exceeds $95 billion and Q3 guidance surpasses $100 billion, the stock could challenge $250; if it only slightly beats expectations, it may consolidate between $210 and $225. The current price level offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.

$Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Micron was mistakenly sold off by 7% last week due to long-term bond panic, but the logic of a memory chip shortage remains intact, with 2026 capacity already sold out and demand extending into 2028. Its forward P/E is just 6.7x, and 16 binding agreements have locked in $22 billion in revenue. Q3 gross margin is estimated at approximately 85%.Forecast: If NVIDIA's earnings validate AI demand, Micron could quickly rebound above $1,000, with a medium-term target of $1,300. The $960–$970 range represents an excellent entry point for contrarian positioning.

$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ AMD has a forward P/E of 27x and a PEG ratio of only 0.4, making it cheaper than NVIDIA. The MI350 is already in mass production, and the MI450 Helios has secured commitments from OpenAI, Meta, and Oracle. Data center revenue has doubled year-over-year, accounting for more than half of the total, with EPS estimates raised 54 times over the past three months. The DCF-derived fair value is $545–$585.Forecast: If NVIDIA reports strong earnings, AMD could quickly recover to $500 and move toward $550. Even if results are mediocre, downside risk is limited due to its lower valuation and incremental design wins. The $460–$480 range is an ideal accumulation zone.

$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Google rose 1.22% last week against the trend, making it the only gainer among the Magnificent Seven. Its forward P/E of 17.2x is the lowest among the group and below its own five-year P/E floor of 20.3x. Berkshire Hathaway holds $24.2 billion in positions and continues to add, while 90% of institutions rate it a Buy. Q2 revenue grew 24%, cloud business grew 82%, and free cash flow reached $53 billion. The average price target is $427, with a high of $515.Forecast: Regardless of NVIDIA's results this week, Google offers limited downside risk due to its low valuation and defensive characteristics. The $340–$350 range is suitable for building a position steadily, with a medium-term target above $400.

Summary

The market is currently in a "cautious wait-and-see" phase ahead of the super week, with volatility expected to increase significantly. Focus on core AI hardware stocks that have been oversold due to rising long-term bond yields, while waiting for Governor Waller's speech and PCE data to confirm policy direction before deciding on the pace of adding positions. Although defensive sectors are strong, avoid chasing highs; pullbacks in Moderna and gold present better entry points.

Disclaimer:The above content is based on public data and quantitative analysis and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice. The market involves risks, so invest with caution. Any investment decision should be made independently based on personal risk tolerance, financial status, and investment objectives, consulting licensed professional institutions when necessary. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

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