US Pre-Market Watch (08/21)

I. Market Environment

On August 20, US stocks fell across the board, with the Dow Jones plunging 703 points. The "efficacy" of the US Treasury's market rescue lasted only one day, as long-term bond yields rose again, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.708% and the 30-year yield returning to 5.25%.

Key News:

1. Bessent (US Treasury Secretary) threatened to hold a press conference on the 24th to announce the "largest and most coordinated economic isolation" measures against Iran in history. Oil prices surged, with WTI rising 2.33% to $87.83 and Brent crude breaking through $93.

2. Walmart plummeted 9.15%, becoming the biggest drag on the Dow Jones. Its US same-store sales grew by only 2.6%, the worst performance in six years, while its full-year EPS guidance missed expectations, heightening concerns about slowing consumer spending.

3. Micron announced a $10 billion investment over the next decade to build research laboratories (Micron Research Labs), further increasing its stake in the AI memory sector.

4. Moderna soared before plunging 23.55%. With short interest reaching as high as 13.7% the previous day, the short squeeze momentum has faded.

5. Bank stocks fell across the board. Morgan Stanley dropped 3%, while Citi and Wells Fargo each fell 2%, leading the decline in the Dow Jones.

6. Initial jobless claims in the US last week came in at 206,000, below the expected 210,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.799 million, exceeding expectations.

7. Nasdaq futures rebounded slightly by 0.48% in pre-market trading on August 21, marking a brief recovery for tech stocks after being oversold.

Strategy: The market rescue was short-lived. Bond yields are exerting pressure again. 26,000 is a key support level for the Nasdaq. NVIDIA's earnings report on August 26 will be the core variable next week.

II. NVIDIA (NVDA)

Resistance: 230

Support: 215, 190

This is the most important earnings report of Q2, as NVIDIA's results serve as the "litmus test" for global AI computing demand. Strong data means the AI boom continues; weak data could trigger a capital rotation.

Keep a close eye on these three figures:

1. Whether single-quarter revenue can approach $100 billion. NVIDIA's quarterly revenue has grown from billions to hundreds of billions, and may now break the $100 billion mark. If it does, it indicates that demand for AI computing power is not just growing but accelerating, which is crucial. Breaking $100 billion confirms the AI supercycle, supporting an "all-in" strategy. Failure to reach this level may raise concerns about peaked growth and lead to capital divergence.

2. Data center revenue. This figure directly reflects the capital expenditure of cloud providers (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google). Continued aggressive purchasing of chips by cloud providers suggests AI infrastructure build-out is ongoing; a slowdown in growth may indicate approaching阶段性 saturation.

3. Guidance. Earnings reflect the past, while guidance looks to the future. NVIDIA's forecast for the next quarter is more important than the current quarter's data. Guidance beating expectations could spark a market rally, while missing expectations may trigger a collective pullback in AI-related stocks.

Strategy: Ignore the earnings report for now. The key support level is at 200. Wait for the earnings direction to become clear after August 26, then add to positions on the right side of the trend, while managing overnight exposure.

3. Tesla (TSLA)

Resistance: 350, 370

Support: 320

Key News: JPMorgan maintains a Neutral rating with a price target of $445. The Robotaxi narrative hinges on the public launch of the Cybercab in Austin at the end of August, which is the core catalyst for this month. Germany's July sales plummeted 66.9% year-over-year, remaining a medium-term risk; the stock is still down approximately 25% year-to-date.

Strategy: The structure above 300 remains intact. The 300–320 range is an ideal entry zone. Expect consolidation before the Cybercab launch and wait for right-side confirmation signals.

4. Micron (MU)

Resistance: 1011

Support: 900, 850

Key News: On August 20, it announced a $10 billion investment in Idaho to establish an AI memory research laboratory (Micron Research Labs), exploring breakthroughs beyond the current technology roadmap, including advanced processing-in-memory architectures and next-generation packaging processes. Q2 revenue hit a record high, with robust demand for HBM continuing. The stock is up 241% year-to-date and 731% over the past 52 weeks. SK Hynix also rose 4.43%, driving a broader rebound in the memory sector.

Strategy: After hitting a new all-time high of 974.33, the next psychological barrier is 1,000. Add to positions if it pulls back below 900, and initiate new positions below 850. The "buy the dip" logic remains unchanged.

5. Meta (META)

Resistance: 580–600

Support: 540, 520

Key News: The decline has noticeably narrowed to 0.04%, indicating that support in the 540–520 range is beginning to take effect. The risk of a €1.4 trillion GDPR fine from the EU remains a potential mid-term black swan event. Capital expenditures of $130–145 billion are putting short-term pressure on net profit, but 28% revenue growth remains a mid-term driver.

Strategy: The 540–520 range is Henry's ideal entry zone, but the short-term approach should remain focused on swing trading rather than expecting a one-way rally. Look for exit signals to take profits near the 580–600 resistance level.

6. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

Resistance: 440

Support: 400, 380

Key News: On August 20, it bucked the trend with a 0.95% gain, making it one of the strongest performers outside the Magnificent Seven. Trading volume reached $4.332 billion, ranking 21st among US stocks for the day, a 24.72% increase from the previous day. The rise in both volume and price reflects sustained capital inflows. On August 14, the company released its interim report for fiscal year 2026, reporting H1 revenue of TWD 240.4484 billion, up 35.61%, and net profit of TWD 127.9582 billion, up 68.76%, with results comprehensively exceeding expectations. High-volume production of CoWoS advanced packaging using 5.5x photomasks is underway, with order spillover going to Intel's Malaysia facility.

Strategy: Hold comfortably above 400; take partial profits in the 430–440 range. Consider opening positions between 380 and 390.

7. Key Weekly Variables

1. NVIDIA's earnings report on August 26 is the most critical single event, determining whether the AI narrative can sustain momentum. Stifel and Oppenheimer anticipate results that will beat expectations.

2. Bessent announced the 'largest economic isolation of Iran in history' at a press conference on the 24th. The trajectory of oil prices is key; if oil continues to surge, inflation expectations will heat up again.

3. Whether the 30-year US Treasury yield can fall back below 5.0%. The one-day market rescue highlights the need for sustained liquidity support.

4. The direction of the consumer sector following Walmart's 9% plunge. Will concerns about slowing consumer spending spread?

5. NBIS and SPCX face the next lock-up expiration window around August 26, keeping these two privately priced stocks under continuous pressure.

6. Tesla's Cybercab launch at the end of this month serves as the core catalyst for the Robotaxi narrative.

7. Whether Micron's research labs can continue to boost the memory chip sector.

8. Anthropic may file IPO documents in late August, with a scale potentially matching SpaceX's record, serving as the next validation point for the AI bubble.

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