Trump rings the opening bell at the White House! Predicts 'US stocks will soar to the moon'
TuiTui X Daily: Three main trading themes point to the same question—is there enough liquidity, and can the narrative hold up?
August 20, 2026 · Covering 401 KOLs and 2,262 tweets
A personalized mRNA cancer vaccine ignited the entire timeline—Moderna announced positive Phase III results for melanoma, sending its stock soaring more than 170% in a single day and propelling it to second place on the S&P 500's year-to-date gainers list. Almost on the same day, Marvell secured $12.2 billion in warrants from Google, continuing the AI capital expenditure story with a potential order book worth hundreds of billions. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury doubled its repo operation size in one go to $4 billion per session, pushing both Bitcoin and gold into the spotlight. While these three threads may seem unrelated, they all point to the same question:Is there enough liquidity, and can the narrative hold up?
I. Trending Stocks on X
II. Market Themes | Moderna ignites the anti-cancer narrative; Marvell's chip mega-deal continues the AI capex story
1. Moderna validates the mRNA anti-cancer pathway; whether the short-term surge is overextended becomes the focal point of controversy：@unusual_whales、@Barchart、@TrendSpider Confirmed by multiple accounts, $Moderna (MRNA.US)$ announced the first positive Phase III results for its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine combined with $Merck & Co (MRK.US)$ Merck's Keytruda for the prevention of melanoma recurrence. The stock surged approximately 150% in a single day, briefly hitting $190 in after-hours trading, outperforming a host of AI-related stocks to claim the second position on the S&P 500's year-to-date gainers list. However, biotech-focused account @ZeeContrarian1 offered a more sober calculation: The FDA halted this melanoma maintenance therapy trial early due to significant efficacy, corresponding to roughly $3–4 billion in revenue, split evenly between Moderna and Merck. Based on a valuation multiple of 5x peak sales, this theoretically provides Moderna with about 36% reasonable upside. However, the stock's intraday gain exceeded 60% and even reached 100%. The author suggests that the latter part of the rally was driven more by short covering rather than being fully explained by the news itself.
2. Marvell signs major custom chip deal with Google; expectations for the "next trillion-dollar company" heat up again：@amitisinvesting Disclosed that, $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$To$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$issue warrants to Google, allowing it to purchase up to 58.97 million shares at an exercise price of $206.58, representing approximately 6.7% equity stake with a value of around $12.2 billion.@joinautopilotPointed out that Marvell's market capitalization increased by approximately $12 billion on the day the news was announced, and reiterated NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's remark from June this year describing Marvell as the "next trillion-dollar company."@StockSavvyShayCiting Stifel's estimates, this partnership could generate up to $120 billion in revenue over the next 6.5 years, several times Marvell's current annual revenue, highlighting the rapid expansion of its custom AI chip business. However, @Beth_Kindig cautioned that for the warrants to fully vest, Google needs to purchase a total of $120 billion worth of Marvell products between Q3 FY2027 and the end of FY2033—this is a long-term commitment spanning nearly six years to realize, not immediate revenue.
3. The Ministry of Finance's increased treasury bond repurchases are interpreted as "disguised QE," leading to simultaneous strength in Bitcoin and gold.: According to the official press release from the Ministry of Finance, starting September 9, the single-session cap for liquidity support repurchase operations on 10- to 30-year treasury bonds has at least doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion.@DebtCollectorPointed out that this move came after the 30-year yield touched its highest level since 2007. Following the announcement, the 30-year yield dropped by about 9 basis points to 5.19%. "This is not QE; the debt remains in the market, but the signal is clear: 5.3% is the Ministry of Finance's pain point."@Matt_HouganLinked this with the SEC's release of the "Regulatory Framework for Crypto Assets" and the White House's preparation for talks with crypto executives, suggesting that the convergence of these three events makes it "hard not to be extremely bullish on Bitcoin and crypto assets."@CalebFranzenTo put it bluntly, this is the most bullish catalyst for Bitcoin in nearly two years. The reaction was immediate: Bitcoin rose about 5.3% in a single day to hover near $68,000,$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$marking its first close above the 200-day moving average in ten weeks; on the same day, it was revealed that the US national debt had surpassed $40 trillion for the first time.
3. Macro Topics | FOMC Minutes Reveal "Superficial Pause, Significant Internal Divergence"; Indices Under Pressure Amid High Yields
1. The July FOMC minutes showed that beneath the facade of "holding steady," there were substantial voices advocating for rate hikes.：@RedboxWireThe summarized key points from the minutes indicated that while most officials supported keeping rates unchanged, "several" officials leaned toward an immediate 25-basis-point hike, citing concerns that delays could necessitate larger hikes later. The minutes also noted that almost all members remained committed to "achieving price stability," with the overall tone described as "more hawkish than the decision to hold itself." Wall Street Journal reporter @NickTimiraos argued that, considering officials' comments and the latest data in the three weeks following the meeting, the minutes were "not as hawkish at the margin as the market feared," and pointed out that the minutes laid the groundwork for a more comprehensive discussion on balance sheet policy for the first time.
2. High interest rates and high oil prices are squeezing index performance; SPY has failed to reclaim its 8-day moving average for two consecutive days.：@BarchartData shows that the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has failed to close above its 8-day exponential moving average for the second consecutive trading day;@AnthonyCrudelepointed out that rising oil prices and yields remaining at year-to-date highs have kept the Nasdaq hovering below 29,800 points, creating a constrained market environment;@PeterSchiffAddendum: Oil prices rose approximately 1.5% on the day, climbing back above $86 per barrel. This was partly driven by the Treasury's strategy of "trading lower long-end yields for a weaker US dollar," as a weaker greenback tends to push up prices for commodities like crude oil. Regarding options flow,@CheddarFlowwe observed that a $2.2 billion call wall has formed near the $775 strike price for SPY.
3. Major retailers release earnings, validating the "K-shaped divergence" in consumer spending.：@elerianmIt was noted that two major retailers releasing earnings on the same day sent starkly contrasting signals, highlighting that corporate earnings are becoming a more reliable economic health indicator than macroeconomic data. Among them, Target delivered across-the-board improvements (see individual stock forum for details), standing out as one of the few clear bright spots in the retail sector that day.
4. Individual Stock Forums
1、$Moderna (MRNA.US)$| Melanoma vaccine Phase III trial succeeds; stock surges to lead S&P gains for the day
This was the stock with the least divergence and the most consistent sentiment on the day—almost every account confirmed the fact of its "best single-day performance in history." The only point of contention was how much of the over 60% gain was attributable to the news itself versus short covering.
***Bullish
• @unusual_whales: Described the move as "crazy but completely unpriced by the market," with some option contracts surging over 710,000 times in a single day. Theoretically, investing $1 the day before the announcement would have yielded around $7,000 the next day.
• @BarchartModerna surged approximately 150% in a single day (closing up 176.97%), marking its best one-day performance in company history. The rally was driven by news that its cancer vaccine demonstrated potential in preventing melanoma recurrence.
• @TrendSpiderMRNA's roughly 150% gain (closing up 176.97%) propelled it to the second spot on the S&P 500's year-to-date percentage gainers list, trailing only SanDisk and outperforming a host of AI-related stocks.
***Bearish
• None
***Neutral
• @ZeeContrarian1Citing biotech experts, the trial is estimated to generate approximately $3–4 billion in revenue, split evenly between Moderna and Merck. The theoretically reasonable price increase is around 36%. Actual gains of 60% or even over 100% appear more likely driven by a short squeeze, as "the news alone may not justify such a sharp rise."
• @Mr_DerivativesAfter-hours trading saw the stock hit $190, sparking strong sentiment, though no specific trading recommendations were provided.
2、 $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ | Google backs with $12.2 billion in warrants; expectations heat up for the 'next trillion-dollar company'
The market is nearly unanimous in its bullish view on this major custom chip deal with Google. The core disagreement lies only in when the potential $120 billion purchase commitment will actually be realized.
***Bullish
• @joinautopilotOn the day the news was announced, Marvell's market capitalization increased by approximately $12 billion, reigniting discussion of Jensen Huang's June comment labeling it the 'next trillion-dollar company.'
• @StockSavvyShayCiting Stifel's estimates, this partnership could generate up to $120 billion in revenue over the next 6.5 years—several times Marvell's current annual revenue—highlighting the rapid expansion of its custom AI chip business.
• @Beth_KindigThe agreement covers a full suite of custom silicon projects, from TPU-related processors to storage and data movement, with Google eligible to receive equity worth up to $12.2 billion.
***Bearish
• None
***Neutral
• @Beth_KindigDetails of the supplemental terms: For the warrants to fully vest, Google must purchase a total of $120 billion worth of Marvell products from Q3 of fiscal year 2027 through the end of fiscal year 2033, representing a long-term commitment that will take nearly six years to fully realize.
3、$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$| Beyond binding infrastructure via chip orders, further strengthening the content moat
In addition to being the buyer for Marvell's major custom chip order, Google was also reported on the same day to have offered substantial exclusive upload deals to retain top YouTube creators and counter poaching attempts by Netflix. Both moves point to a strategy of 'using hard cash to secure ecosystem positioning.'
***Bullish
• @amitisinvesting: Confirmed that Google has tied up with Marvell via warrants, with an equity value of approximately $12.2 billion corresponding to a 6.7% stake in Marvell.
***Bearish
• None
***Neutral
• @StockMKTNewz: According to reports, Google-owned YouTube is offering multi-million dollar deals to popular channels in exchange for temporary upload exclusivity, aiming to counter Netflix's poaching of top creators.
• @StockSavvyShay: Another version of the same news adds that this "creator war" is expanding from film and TV content to the creator economy itself.
4、$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$| Data center expansion benefits coexist with convertible bond dilution and short-seller narratives.
Fundamentals and sentiment are diverging on this stock. The approval of the expansion is a key step in its major cloud partnership with Microsoft, but dilution from new convertible bonds, combined with persistent short pressure at key support levels, has intensified the battle between bulls and bears.
***Bullish
• @JonahLupton: Nebius plunged 13% in early trading due to a $4.5 billion convertible bond issuance (equivalent to 5-6% equity dilution), but stabilized and rebounded in the $213-$220 range where Fibonacci retracement levels, VWAP, the 50-day moving average, and trendlines converged. This drop was deemed "completely unjustified."
***Bearish
• @pdicarlotrader: Since initiating the short position, there has been a floating profit of 20%. $200 is the critical "life-or-death line" for both bulls and bears; breaking below it could open the door to a decline toward $130.
• @TJ_Research: Convertible bonds are essentially a form of "disguised secondary offering," reflecting the company's need for continuous financing to meet capital expenditure requirements at the trillion-dollar scale, which caps the upside potential for valuation multiples.
***Neutral
• @pdicarlotrader: A subsequent update noted that holding the $220 level in the short term was in line with expectations, and the trend's evolution needs to be monitored over the coming weeks.
5、$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$| "Facebook-style double-bottom" pattern and selling pressure from lock-up expirations triggered a sharp sell-off, resulting in unprecedented market divergence throughout the day.
This was one of the stocks with the greatest divergence on the day—technical analysts took... $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ ...a bullish view on the outlook by drawing parallels to the post-IPO trajectories of Facebook and LinkedIn, which featured "deep declines, recovery, and secondary rallies." However, on the same day, news broke that a Chinese private rocket company had replicated the same reusable rocket technology. Coupled with the large-scale expiration of insider lock-up periods, this led to a severe single-day plunge in the stock price, wiping out over $60 billion in market capitalization, as bulls and bears engaged in intense tug-of-war.
***Bullish
• @markminervini: Drew an analogy between SpaceX and Facebook's post-IPO trend of "rapid recovery meeting overhead resistance from trapped buyers," and reviewed how LinkedIn experienced a six-week deep decline after its IPO, followed by a recovery to near previous highs but remained suppressed by trapped positions. He noted that he only began buying LinkedIn in Q1 2013. He believes that if SpaceX can build a structure on the right side of the chart and achieve an effective breakout, there is still room for further gains, but emphasized no prediction—only waiting for structural confirmation.
***Bearish
• @joinautopilot: The trigger for SpaceX's plummet was LandSpace, a Chinese private rocket company, replicating the same rocket reusability technology that once made SpaceX "unchallengeable." This, combined with the impending expiration of lock-up periods for 319 million insider shares, resulted in approximately $62.6 billion in market cap evaporating in a single day.
***Neutral
• @jfsrev: Among the 34 strongest performing stocks recently with market caps exceeding $10 billion, only 12 remain above all major moving averages. SpaceX has been one of the most outstanding names in terms of relative strength since August 6—implying that despite the heavy drop on the day, its medium-term bullish momentum has not been completely broken.
6、 $Target (TGT.US)$ Target | Delivers the clearest "turnaround from distress" results on retail earnings day
Amid conflicting signals from multiple retailers' earnings reports on the same day, Target was one of the few to deliver clear positive news—same-store sales, foot traffic, gross margin, and operating margin all improved across the board, and full-year guidance was raised. Although there was an initially "anomalous" weak reaction in pre-market trading, it quickly reversed into gains.
***Bullish
• @Stephanie_Link: The turnaround story continues: same-store sales rose 3.8%, transaction volume increased 3.6%, and both gross and operating margins expanded, with operating margin improving by 120 basis points. Full-year guidance was raised, exceeding previously high expectations. Congratulations to CEO Fiddelke and the team.
• @JeffMacke: Both sales and foot traffic moved higher, making for a 'very strong' earnings report and guidance. He described the pre-market price drop as 'strange,' judged it unlikely to last, and revealed he remains long; the stock subsequently turned positive.
***Bearish
• No clear bearish signals at present
***Neutral
• @bespokeinvest: Target's stock price peaked five years ago (August 2021). From that high to the low in October last year, it fell 67%. It has since rebounded 90%, narrowing the drawdown to under 40%. Whether it can fully recover its losses remains to be seen.
• @SchwabNetwork: Citing industry analysts, Target is expected to maintain its growth momentum from Labor Day through year-end, but may weaken again thereafter.
7. $Meta Platforms (META.US)$| The 680/690 resistance level was tested four times without success, while some funds added positions against the trend
Meta lacked independent catalysts on the day, with price action driven more by technical levels and positioning dynamics—the 680/690 zone has served as a bearish defense line four consecutive times and remains unbroken, while some investors added contrarian long positions in the 500-550 range.
***Bullish
• @kimsbinvesting: Trading records from August 18 show that the Meta position was increased from 13.8% to 17.2% at an entry price of $550.87, while the TransMedics position was reduced during the same period.
***Bearish
• @preetkailon: The $680–$690 range is a supply zone that bulls must reclaim; previous four attempts were all rejected, and the downtrend line from the $800 high is also pressing nearby. Currently, prices have pulled back to test the lower boundary of the $520–$540 trading box. Holding this level would maintain range-bound consolidation, while a breakdown could open the door to deeper declines.
***Neutral
• @Beth_Kindig: In 2026, corporate bond issuance by technology and AI-related companies has exceeded $190 billion, up nearly 80% year-over-year, with potential to reach $250 billion. Meta, along with Google, Microsoft, $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ Oracle, and Amazon, are listed as major issuers to support capital expenditure for AI data centers.
8. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$| Ahead of the August 26 earnings report, two underlying themes—"securing power" and "securing data"—are advancing in parallel.
With about a week left until NVIDIA releases its earnings, market sentiment is broadly bullish—the monthly chart is seen as poised for a breakout, and Jefferies expects results to "beat estimates and raise guidance." The company is simultaneously increasing investments in two critical supply chain areas: power and training data, with no significant bearish voices observed.
***Bullish
• @Banana3Stocks: The monthly chart is nearing a breakout, suggesting promising stock performance post-breakout. Citing Jefferies' view, NVIDIA is expected to deliver a quarter that "beats estimates and raises guidance."
***Bearish
• None
***Neutral
• @StockSavvyShay: NVIDIA is turning its attention to Northern Europe, seeking locations with abundant power and cool climates for GPU computing capacity, aiming to alleviate the next bottleneck in AI infrastructure—power supply.
• @StockSavvyShayReports indicate that NVIDIA is considering investing in data labeling company Mercor at a $20 billion valuation. This follows tens of millions of dollars invested by NVIDIA in Mercor last quarter to help build the Nemotron model. Mercor's annualized revenue has doubled to $2 billion.
5. Event Calendar
1. Announced
• Moderna announced positive Phase III results for its melanoma mRNA vaccine, used in combination with Merck's Keytruda, sending its stock soaring;
• Marvell signed a custom chip cooperation agreement with Google, granting Google warrants to purchase up to 58.97 million shares of Marvell stock;
• The U.S. Treasury Department announced that, effective September 9, it will at least double the single-operation cap for liquidity support repurchase operations on 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion;
• The Federal Reserve released the July FOMC meeting minutes, showing that most officials supported holding interest rates steady, while some favored an immediate 25 basis point rate hike;
• The U.S. national debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time;
• Retail stocks including Target, Lowe's, and TJX reported earnings on the same day; Target posted a 3.8% increase in same-store sales and raised its full-year guidance;
• Chinese humanoid robot company Unitree surged on its debut trading day, reaching a valuation of approximately $53.3 billion.
2. Today
• St. Louis Fed President Musalem is scheduled to be interviewed by CNBC at 10:10 a.m. ET to discuss his views on the U.S. economy
3. This Week
• NVIDIA's earnings are scheduled for release on Wednesday, August 26, with institutions such as Jefferies expecting results to beat estimates and guidance to be raised
4. Longer Term
According to The Information, Anthropic is planning an IPO as early as late September, with plans to strengthen voting rights for its founder and co-founders to maintain control of the company.
This report is compiled based on public posts from the X platform and publicly available market information. It reflects only the personal views of the original author and does not constitute investment advice. The content has been summarized and refined with AI assistance, so there may be omissions or deviations; please refer to official information for accuracy. The cited KOLs represent curated viewpoints from professional traders, analysts, and leading media accounts, and do not reflect the overall sentiment of retail investors.
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