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GPT-6 launch boosts sentiment! AI hardware stocks in Hong Kong and the US heat up again
Lucas美股机会
joined discussion · Aug 19 19:43

Index pullback ≠ end of trend | SanDisk at 1,500; Micron entry zone analysis for the 915–880 range

YesterdayPrimary reasons for the index pullbackI believe they stem from two aspects: first,Middle East Situationuncertainty, and second,US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields remain at elevated levels. It is crucial to understand the logic that the bond market and the stock market are like twin brothers, especially for high-growth tech stocks, the higher US Treasury yields rise,the greater the pressure on valuations, because when risk-free rates remain elevated for an extended period,capital will naturally reassessOne question: Is it really necessary to continue buying these high-growth tech stocks at such elevated valuations? Oncecapital begins to view short-term tech valuations as excessive, it can easily trigger concentrated profit-taking.

Let's first look at memory chips.
Although the entire memory sector underwent a correction yesterday, in terms ofthe magnitude of the decline,it was clearlymore resilient than some core names in the optical module space.If we consider purelythe certainty of the industry fundamentals,whether over the next few yearsLock-in of long-term contracts, versus current storagespot price performance,the overall storage industry'sbusiness cycle remains clearly robust, so yesterday's decline did not change my view on the medium-term trend for storage. Now,the only thing we really need to do is wait for a better entry price. Since the market is willingly helping us drive prices down, there is no need to rush in.
YesterdayPrimary reasons for the index pullbackI believe they stem from two aspects: first,Middle East Situationuncertainty, and second,US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields remain at elevated levels. It is crucial to understand the logic that the bond market and the stock market are like twin brothers, especially for high-growth tech stocks, the higher US Treasury yields rise,the greater the pressure on valuations, because when risk-free rates remain elevated for an extended period,capital will naturally reassessOne question: Is it really necessary to continue buying these high-growth tech stocks at such elevated valuations? Oncecapital begins to view short-term tech valuations as excessive, it can easily trigger concentrated profit-taking. Let's first look at memory chips. Although the entire memory sector underwent a correction yesterday, in terms ofthe magnitude of the decline,it was clearlymore resilient than some core names in the optical module space.If we consider purelythe certainty of the industry fundamentals,whether over the next few yearsLock-in of long-term contracts, versus current storagespot price performance,the overall storage industry'sbusiness cycle remains clearly robust, so yesterday's decline did not change my view on the medium-term trend for storage. Now,the only thing we really need to do is wait for a better entry price. Since the market is willingly helping us drive prices down, there is no need to rush in. 1. $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ Let's take another look at the currentSanDisk, which has the highest elasticity，If the market continues to adjust in the future, I believe we should focus on the $1,500 level.，...
1. $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ Let's take another look at the currentSanDisk, which has the highest elasticity，If the market continues to adjust in the future, I believe we should focus on the $1,500 level.Compared to the $1,800 level seen in previous days, the risk-reward ratio is now much more favorable.For those who completely missed out on SanDisk earlier,there is no need to rush now. You canpatiently wait for SanDisk's stock price to pull back to around $1,500and consider making an initial entry with a small position.
YesterdayPrimary reasons for the index pullbackI believe they stem from two aspects: first,Middle East Situationuncertainty, and second,US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields remain at elevated levels. It is crucial to understand the logic that the bond market and the stock market are like twin brothers, especially for high-growth tech stocks, the higher US Treasury yields rise,the greater the pressure on valuations, because when risk-free rates remain elevated for an extended period,capital will naturally reassessOne question: Is it really necessary to continue buying these high-growth tech stocks at such elevated valuations? Oncecapital begins to view short-term tech valuations as excessive, it can easily trigger concentrated profit-taking. Let's first look at memory chips. Although the entire memory sector underwent a correction yesterday, in terms ofthe magnitude of the decline,it was clearlymore resilient than some core names in the optical module space.If we consider purelythe certainty of the industry fundamentals,whether over the next few yearsLock-in of long-term contracts, versus current storagespot price performance,the overall storage industry'sbusiness cycle remains clearly robust, so yesterday's decline did not change my view on the medium-term trend for storage. Now,the only thing we really need to do is wait for a better entry price. Since the market is willingly helping us drive prices down, there is no need to rush in. 1. $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ Let's take another look at the currentSanDisk, which has the highest elasticity，If the market continues to adjust in the future, I believe we should focus on the $1,500 level.，...
2 $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Regarding Micron, from atechnical structure perspective, $915 remains a significant medium-term support level for Micron.If you already entered at $940 yesterday, there is no need to add to your position immediately upon seeing minor price adjustments.Since your initial cost basis is relatively low, you can afford to be patient. If the market continues to correct, wait for a deeper pullback before making a second entry.However, for those who did not participate in Micron at all yesterday,It’s$915–$880This range will re-enter a favorable zone for the first tranche of batch buying.

Looking further,the optical transceiver sector, which saw a sharper correction yesterday,, core stocks in the optical transceiver segment declined significantly more than memory chips yesterday. However, investors should view this objectively: the optical transceiver sectorfell more primarily because it had risen more previously.Since August, optical transceivers have been the strongest tech theme in the market, with many core stocks postingexaggerated gains in just half a month.Therefore, when risk begins to unwind in the market, the sectors with the largest prior gains naturally becomethe most likely areas for capital to take profits.Regarding optical transceiver modules, I won't conclude that the entire industry trend has ended just because of a single day's correction. However,in short-term trading, you must avoid blindly chasing highs as seen in early August. What matters more now is to waitfor core tickers to return to their true strong support levels.
The next article will continue to discuss optical transceiver modules and core tickers in the data center sector: $Lumentum (LITE.US)$$Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$$Intel (INTC.US)$
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YesterdayPrimary reasons for the index pullbackI believe they stem from two aspects: first,Middle East Situationuncertainty, and second,US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields remain at elevated levels. It is crucial to understand the logic that the bond market and the stock market are like twin brothers, especially for high-growth tech stocks, the higher US Treasury yields rise,the greater the pressure on valuations, because when risk-free rates remain elevated for an extended period,capital will naturally reassessOne question: Is it really necessary to continue buying these high-growth tech stocks at such elevated valuations? Oncecapital begins to view short-term tech valuations as excessive, it can easily trigger concentrated profit-taking. Let's first look at memory chips. Although the entire memory sector underwent a correction yesterday, in terms ofthe magnitude of the decline,it was clearlymore resilient than some core names in the optical module space.If we consider purelythe certainty of the industry fundamentals,whether over the next few yearsLock-in of long-term contracts, versus current storagespot price performance,the overall storage industry'sbusiness cycle remains clearly robust, so yesterday's decline did not change my view on the medium-term trend for storage. Now,the only thing we really need to do is wait for a better entry price. Since the market is willingly helping us drive prices down, there is no need to rush in. 1. $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ Let's take another look at the currentSanDisk, which has the highest elasticity，If the market continues to adjust in the future, I believe we should focus on the $1,500 level.，...
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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