Daily Options Income Strategy | Countdown to SPCX's Second Lock-up Expiration! How Will the Market Interpret the "Expectation Gap" During This Window?

I. Market Barometer

On the previous trading day (Tuesday, August 18), the three major U.S. stock indices corrected collectively, $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ The second wave of approximately 320 million shares will be unlocked on August 20 (this Thursday). Previously, after the first round of approximately 912 million shares was unlocked, the stock price rose instead of falling, surging 35% in five trading days and returning above the IPO price, leaving suspense for the second unlock. High implied volatility combined with uncertainty around the lock-up expiration window has created an ideal premium window for options selling strategies.

II. Watchlist Highlights

SPCX: 319 million shares to be unlocked tomorrow; how will the stock price perform?

$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ On the previous trading day (August 18), it closed down 1.98% at $143.34, with a turnover of $12.034 billion and a turnover rate of 5.43%.

From a technical perspective, SPCX has rebounded from the low near $108 in late July. Following the first unlock on August 6, the stock strengthened consecutively, reaching a high of $149.60 on August 12 before entering a consolidation phase. From August 13 to 18, it fluctuated within the $130–$150 range. In terms of volume, trading volume on August 18 shrank significantly compared to previous days (volume ratio of 0.685), indicating that both bulls and bears are adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the unlock, with the stock currently in a short-term consolidation state.

Review of the First Unlock: The market’s most feared unlock of 912 million shares was perfectly absorbed, driving the stock price up by 35%.

On August 6, the first lock-up period restricting early investors from selling their shares expired, flooding the market with over 911 million shares, exceeding the 639 million shares released during the IPO. Contrary to the market's widespread expectation of a sell-off, $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ the stock rose 6.1% on that day and subsequently surged 35% over the next five trading days. Its market capitalization increased by approximately $500 billion, returning above the IPO issue price of $135. Short covering and strong buying pressure jointly absorbed the new supply.

Scale and Pace of the Second Unlock: A second wave of unlocks involving approximately 319 million shares will occur on August 20 (this Thursday).

On August 20 (Thursday), $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ the post-listing second wave of share unlocks will take place, involving up to 319 million shares. The shareholders subject to the unlock are primarily early investors and company insiders, including $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ , Fidelity Investments, Gigafund, Saudi Public Investment Fund, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and other large institutions.

Although the scale of this lock-up expiration is far smaller than the 911.5 million shares released in the initial expiration on August 6, the market environment has changed.During the initial expiration, the stock price was at a deep correction low near $108, limiting insiders' motivation to reduce holdings; currently, the stock price has rebounded by approximately 40% to around $143, above the $135 IPO price, which may strengthen early investors' willingness to take profits.

The core expectation differential being priced in by the market lies in:The volume of the second lock-up expiration is only one-third of the first, but the stock price level has risen significantly, making insiders' willingness to sell vastly different from the first expiration. If the selling pressure from this expiration is less than expected and the market absorbs it smoothly again, it could create a "bad news exhausted" effect, pushing the stock price to break through the $150 resistance zone.

Major Bank View: Morgan Stanley views the second lock-up expiration as an "opportunity rather than a risk", maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a $300 target price, believing that temporary expiration pressure may provide a more attractive entry point. The Starship project could become another potential catalyst in the coming weeks, offering investors a focus beyond AI. Currently, 80% of the 30 covering analysts give a "Buy" rating, with an average target price of $237.04, a high of $800, and a low of $75.

3. Options Premium Collection Strategy

1. Cash Secured Put

Sell 1 contract of $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ SPCX 260911 125 Put, estimated margin required (for reference only): $12,500

Opportunity Rationale:

For investors who agree with $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ For investors in the long-term "AI + Aerospace" narrative, the second lock-up expiration window may cause short-term sentiment volatility, but experience from the first round indicates that market absorption capacity exceeded expectations.

By selling put options, investors can earn premium income in a high implied volatility (IV) environment if the stock price consolidates during the expiration window; if selling pressure exceeds expectations and pushes the stock price down to around $125, there is also an opportunity to establish positions at a price with a greater margin of safety.

2. Covered Call

Hold 100 shares $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$, sell 1 contract of SPCX 260911 165 Call

Opportunity Rationale:

For investors already holding $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ For investors, the second lock-up expiration window is approaching, with more shares scheduled to be released throughout the year. The pressure on early investors to take profits should not be underestimated. Although the performance during the first round of lock-up expiration exceeded expectations, its sustainability remains to be verified.

By selling call options, if the stock price consolidates at high levels, the premium income can gradually reduce the holding cost. If market sentiment recovers after the second lock-up expiration and drives the stock price above $165, resulting in assignment, it would effectively achieve phased profit-taking at a resistance level.

IV. Risk Management Advisory

Although seller strategies have a high win rate, investors must still implement proper risk management:

– Position management is everything.: The biggest risk for option sellers lies in black swan events. It is recommended that margin allocated to any single underlying should not exceed 20% of total capital. Never sell options beyond your capacity to absorb losses just for the sake of collecting higher premiums.

– Covered Call and Timely Rolling: When a covered call becomes deeply in-the-money (i.e., the stock price far exceeds the strike price), if you remain bullish on the underlying stock, you should decisively 'roll' the position—buy to close the current option and simultaneously sell a longer-dated call with a higher strike price—to avoid having your shares called away at an unattractive price.

– Cash-secured put options: Beware of 'left-tail risk': For cash-secured puts, if the stock price crashes due to fundamental deterioration (rather than a normal pullback), don’t hold on stubbornly. In such cases, exit with a stop-loss or roll the position down to buy time while waiting for volatility to normalize.

Make good use of the Options Seller Hub to understand income strategies for selling options and earnOption premiums！

Options Risk Disclosure

An option is a contract that gives the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date. Option prices are influenced by multiple factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of future volatility over the life of the option and is derived by back-solving from the Black-Scholes option pricing model. It is commonly viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate higher volatility, they may be willing to pay more for options to hedge their risk, leading to higher implied volatility. Traders and investors use implied volatility to assess the attractiveness of option prices, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer

This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, advice, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, there is no guarantee they will prevent losses. Market conditions may render such orders unexecutable. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet the required margin within the specified timeframe, your open positions may be liquidated. Nevertheless, you remain fully responsible for any resulting deficit in your account. Therefore, prior to trading options, you should thoroughly study and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading aligns with your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should become familiar with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully read 'Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options' before engaging in any options trading strategy.

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