Rising geopolitical risks sound the alarm: Views on positioning for Micron, SK Hynix, and optical modules

Let me start by sayingThe biggest concern this week is the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. The 60-day negotiation window for the US-Iran ceasefire agreement has expired, and Trump currently statesthat he will not extend the relevant understanding arrangements for now, andhas not provided a clear timeline for resolving the Iran issue. Meanwhile, regarding the openness of the Strait of Hormuz,the US has once again issued a relatively tough statementAffected by this news, during the Asian trading session,international oil pricesRallied strongly, while Nasdaq futures once plunged by nearly 1%. $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$

I believethat the biggest risk for tech stocks right now is not a sudden shift in industry logic,，but rather the emergence of new fundamental headwinds following an overheated short-term rally,which could trigger concentrated profit-taking. As I have consistently reminded readers in my articles, whether in memory chips or optical modules, the recent pace of gains has been extreme. With profits already accumulated from lower levels, it is crucial to prioritize profit protection.

Turning to the memory sector, it saw broad-based strength yesterday, spurred by SanDisk’s third consecutive day of sharp gains. However, this momentum faced headwinds as international oil prices rose after hours and Nasdaq futures retreated.

1. $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Micron Technology adjusted by 2% in after-hours trading. From a daily chart perspective, Micron formed a clearinverted hammer bullish candlestick at yesterday's highs., which also indicates that the short-term stock price is showingclear pressure at high levels, butFor those who missed the opportunity to buy Micron at its lows in the previous round,on the contrary,Not a bad thing, because wecan finally start waiting for entry points again$950–$920 is currently what I consider a solid range for initiating the first position in Micron on a pullback. We can patiently wait for Micron’s stock price to adjust to this zone. If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or other fundamental factors trigger a second, deeper market correction later on, that is perfectly fine.As long as your initial position in Micron was not fully allocated,we can certainly look for deeper levels to average down our cost basis with a second purchase.

2. $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ SK Hynix has shown a trend very similar to Micron’s. After rallying again toward $180, it encountered clear short-term resistance. In after-hours trading, SK Hynix’s price has already dropped to around $168. From a technical structure perspective, I believeSK Hynix needs to undergo further pullbacks.If you are more bullish on SK Hynix’s future growth potential within the memory chip sector, thenthere is no need to rush right now.$155 is what I consider a comfortable level for initiating the first position in SK Hynix. Sincethe stock price has already started showing signs of correction, let the price come back to us proactively.

Let's take another look at the optical module sector.

Yesterday, the optical module sector continued to exhibit significant rotation among individual stocks, $AXT Inc (AXTI.US)$ with AXTI surging over 15% in a single day, effectively taking the baton from AAOI, which saw a sharp rise last Friday. Meanwhile, core holdings LITE and COHR maintained their strong momentum. Therefore, in terms of capital participation,the optical module sector remains one of the strongest technology themes since August.In this direction,there has been no significant outflow of capital., butHowever, the issues are also evident: the short-term gains in the optical module sector have been too rapid,compounded by potential new developments in the Middle East situation. I believethe optical module sector is also likely to undergo further correction.

The next article will share the pullback entry zones for core optical module targets LITE and COHR, as well as data center stocks NBIS and CRWV. $Lumentum (LITE.US)$$Coherent (COHR.US)$$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$$CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$

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