HBM shortages drive up chip prices: Is the memory supercycle continuing?
I. Market Barometer
US stocks on the previous trading day (Monday) $Semiconductors (LIST2015.US)$ 、 $Data storage stock (LIST23925.US)$ strengthened, $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ surged 8.88% to lead the memory storage sector, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ rose over 4%, $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ and rose over 3%. The high-volatility environment in the memory storage sector provided a quality window for option selling strategies.
II. Watchlist Highlights
SNDK: Violent rebound of nearly 60%, with intense contention between overbought signals and capital inflows
$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ Yesterday (August 17), it surged with heavy volume, closing at $1,786.85, up 8.88%. The intraday high reached $1,827.99, and the low was $1,698.00. Trading volume amounted to $32.044 billion, with a turnover rate of 12.53%.

The current technical pattern is in an overheated contention phase following a violent rebound.The daily chart shows an intact bullish structure with Bollinger Bands opening upward, and medium-to-long-term capital continues to see net inflows. However, the 4-hour RSI has entered overbought territory, and the MACD shows a bearish divergence at high levels, indicating a significant decline in short-term upward momentum and sharply increased risk of chasing highs. Fund flow data indicates that bullish capital is still entering, but long-short博弈 (contest) at high levels has intensified significantly, suggesting the possibility of a pullback for shakeout.
Expectations of structural growth in AI NAND demand are driving valuation repair.Previously, SNDK retraced more than 50% from its June historical high of $2,354, briefly falling below the $1,000 mark, mainly dragged down by expectations of expanded storage capacity in China and concerns that the storage cycle had peaked. However, as the rigid demand for NAND storage in AI inference scenarios continues to be validated, and downstream cloud vendors' inventory digestion nears completion, the market has begun to reprice the structural growth logic of AI NAND.
As of Monday's market close, $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$Since rebounding from the sub-$1,000 low on July 29, it has risen more than 60%, marking a recovery in market sentiment from extreme pessimism.
The core expectation gap and risk currently traded by the market lie in whether the growth rate of AI inference demand for high-performance NAND can continue to exceed expectations. SNDK's year-to-date gains have been substantial, and the pressure for profit-taking after the rapid short-term rise cannot be ignored; additionally, pre-market adjustments indicate that some capital is choosing to cash out.
Major Bank Views: Wall Street remains generally bullish on $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ the stock overall.Among 16 analysts, 87.5% give a Buy rating, with an average target price of $2,203.13 and a highest target price of $3,050 (Bernstein).
3. Options Premium Collection Strategy
1. Cash Secured Put
Sell 1 contract of $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ 260911 1405P, Estimated Margin Required (for reference only): $140,500

Opportunity Rationale:
For investors who recognize the long-term structural logic of AI NAND but have not yet established positions, the current stock price faces overbought pressure after a violent rebound, posing significant short-term risk in chasing highs.
The company benefits from the structural demand for NAND storage driven by AI inference, and the medium-to-long-term thesis of valuation recovery from previously oversold levels remains intact. By selling put options, investors can capture premium income in a high implied volatility (IV) environment if the stock consolidates at highs or pulls back; if the stock dips to around $1,405 due to a technical correction, there is also an opportunity to establish a position at a price with a greater margin of safety.
2. Covered Call

Opportunity Rationale:
For investors already holding SanDisk with substantial unrealized gains, the stock has entered overbought territory after a violent rebound of over 60% in the short term. If investors are bullish on the long-term growth logic of AI NAND but concerned about a rapid pullback following short-term overheating, they may consider selling call options.
If the stock consolidates, premium income can gradually reduce the cost basis; if subsequent AI storage demand continues to exceed expectations, driving the stock to break through $2,350 (the previous high) and resulting in assignment, it effectively amounts to taking partial profits at a resistance level.
IV. Risk Management Advisory
Although seller strategies have a high win rate, investors must still implement proper risk management:
– Position management is everything.: The biggest risk for option sellers lies in black swan events. It is recommended that margin allocated to any single underlying should not exceed 20% of total capital. Never sell options beyond your capacity to absorb losses just for the sake of collecting higher premiums.
– Covered Call and Timely Rolling: When a covered call becomes deeply in-the-money (i.e., the stock price far exceeds the strike price), if you remain bullish on the underlying stock, you should decisively 'roll' the position—buy to close the current option and simultaneously sell a longer-dated call with a higher strike price—to avoid having your shares called away at an unattractive price.
– Cash-secured put options: Beware of 'left-tail risk': For cash-secured puts, if the stock price crashes due to fundamental deterioration (rather than a normal pullback), don’t hold on stubbornly. In such cases, exit with a stop-loss or roll the position down to buy time while waiting for volatility to normalize.
Make good use of the Options Seller Hub to understand income strategies for selling options and earnOption premiums!

Options Risk Disclosure
An option is a contract that gives the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date. Option prices are influenced by multiple factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of future volatility over the life of the option and is derived by back-solving from the Black-Scholes option pricing model. It is commonly viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate higher volatility, they may be willing to pay more for options to hedge their risk, leading to higher implied volatility. Traders and investors use implied volatility to assess the attractiveness of option prices, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.
Disclaimer
This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, advice, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, there is no guarantee they will prevent losses. Market conditions may render such orders unexecutable. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet the required margin within the specified timeframe, your open positions may be liquidated. Nevertheless, you remain fully responsible for any resulting deficit in your account. Therefore, prior to trading options, you should thoroughly study and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading aligns with your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should become familiar with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully read 'Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options' before engaging in any options trading strategy.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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