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HK Stock IPO Outlook for H2 2026: A Deep Dive into New Energy, AI, and Consumption Sectors

The HK IPO market is set for a rebound in H1 2026, with 70 companies going public and raising over HK$204.8 billion, more than double the amount from the same period last year. As H2 approaches, market focus is shifting from H1's "semiconductor equipment + A+H mega-listings" to three new key sectors: new energy, large AI models, and consumer brands. This article breaks down the core logic of each sector, highlights anticipated key IPOs, and outlines risk indicators investors should watch.

H1 Review:
From Semiconductors to AI—What Did H1 Teach Us?

There are several key trends in the HK IPO market during H1 worth remembering, as they will directly influence market behavior in H2:

Dual A+H Listings Become the Norm

Lingyi iTech, Anker Innovations, and SG Micro—almost all mega-IPOs in H1 were dual A+H listings. HK pricing generally offered a 10-30% discount compared to A-shares, but first-day performance was mixed: Lingyi iTech -4.6%, Anker Innovations flat. The premium potential for H-shares in A+H structures is narrowing.

Profitability vs. Losses—The Market Has Made Its Choice

There was a huge disparity in first-day performance between profitable new listings (SMEE +15%, Ketuo +204%) and loss-making ones (Libang Medicine, Laifu Harmonics). Investor tolerance for "burning cash for growth" will continue to decline in H2.

Chapter 18C Opens for Specialist Technology Companies

Basic Semiconductor, Zhongke Wenge, Laifu Harmonics, and others have all listed under Chapter 18C—the Hong Kong Exchange has fully opened its doors to "pre-profit hard tech" companies. More Chapter 18C issuers are expected to queue up in the second half of the year.

View full H1 data analysis → Analysis of First-Day Returns for New IPOs in H1 2026

Sector 1:
New Energy — The CATL Effect

Without a doubt, the most anticipated single new listing in the second half will be CATL's H-share offering. As the world's largest power battery manufacturer (with a global market share of approximately 37%), CATL is already listed on the A-share market (with a market capitalization exceeding RMB 1 trillion). The H-share issuance is projected to become one of the largest IPOs globally in 2026.

🔋 New Energy Sector — Expected Focus

Rumored

CATL — H-Share Listing

The global leader in power batteries, with an A-share market cap exceeding RMB 1 trillion. Its H-share listing will test the Hong Kong market's capacity to absorb mega-cap new energy stocks. Key focus areas: the discount of the H-share pricing relative to A-shares, and demand from the international placement.

Application submitted

PV Inverter / Energy Storage Supply Chain

Several Chinese PV inverter and energy storage system providers have filed their A1 forms. Benefiting from the explosion in global energy storage demand (global energy storage installations expected to grow +67% in 2025), these companies are generally profitable with strong growth rates. Investors should monitor gross margin trends, as price wars in the PV industry may impact profitability.

Supply Chain Extension

Lithium Battery Materials / Solid-State Battery Startups

Mid-to-upstream companies such as cathode material producers, electrolyte manufacturers, and lithium battery recyclers are also in the queue. Some solid-state battery startups may apply under Chapter 18C—pay attention to revenue scale (mostly still very low) and cash burn rate.

⚠️ Risks in the New Energy Sector

– • Risk of Overcapacity:Capacity utilization in the lithium battery industry has dropped to ~50%, and price wars may erode industry-wide profits.

– • The A+H Share Discount Trap:CATL's A-shares are fully priced. If the H-share discount narrows to below 20%, short-term upside potential will be limited (refer to the lesson from Lingyi iTech's -31% discount).

– • Technology Route Risks:New technologies such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries may disrupt the existing lithium battery supply chain.

Track Two:
AI—From Autonomous Driving to Large Language Models

In the first half of the year, Momenta (autonomous driving AI, market cap near 70 billion), Zhongke Wenge (decision intelligence AI), and Yikong Zhijia (mining autonomous driving) listed successively, kicking off a full-blown IPO frenzy for AI stocks. In the second half, the focus will shift toLarge Language Model StartupssameAI Application Layer。

🤖 AI Sector — Expected Focus

Rumored

DeepSeek / Zhipu AI / Moonshot AI — Large Model Startups

Valuations of China's leading AI large model companies have reached tens to hundreds of billions of USD, with many rumored to be planning IPOs in 2026-2027. If any of them files for an IPO in the second half of the year, it will become a landmark event for the AI sector on the Hong Kong Exchange. Key points to watch: revenue scale (generally under $1 billion), commercialization progress, and valuation comparisons with US tech giants.

IPO Application Filed

AI Application Layer — Enterprise Services / Medical AI / Industrial AI

In the first half of the year, vertical applications such as AI+Mining (EasyControl) and AI+Airport Retail (Rayzeon) went public. More AI application companies are expected to file for IPOs in the second half: AI Drug Discovery (XtalPi model), AI Enterprise Software, and AI Education. Most of these companies adopt a SaaS subscription model, offering higher revenue predictability.

Worth noting

AI Computing Infrastructure — GPU Cloud Services / AI Data Centers

Affected by US chip export controls, China faces a supply shortage in AI computing power. Revenue for several GPU cloud service providers and AI data center operators has seen explosive growth. Pay attention to the capital expenditure of these companies—building AI data centers requires massive upfront investment.

⚠️ Risks in the AI Sector

– • Valuation Challenges:Valuations for large-model startups are already extremely high (with some exceeding 50x P/S), yet their revenue scale is far below that of comparable US companies. HK stock investors have a lower tolerance for "no profitability + no scaled revenue" compared to US stock investors.

– • The trap of fair value losses on preferred shares:Momenta reported a net loss of RMB 3.46 billion in the first half, but RMB 2.84 billion of this was a non-cash change in the fair value of preferred shares. When analyzing new AI IPOs, it is crucial to distinguish between "adjusted loss" and "accounting loss."

– • Regulatory risks:Large AI models fall under regulatory scopes such as data security and content moderation; policy changes could directly impact business models.

Track Three:
Consumption – Chinese consumer brands going global

In the first half, Anker Innovations (the global leader in mobile charging, with revenue of RMB 30.5 billion, net profit of RMB 2.55 billion, and 96.6% of revenue from overseas) set a benchmark for consumer brands listing in Hong Kong. In the second half, the consumption sector will focus on:Freshly made tea beverage chainssameNew consumer brands。

🛍️ Consumer Sector — Key Focus Areas

Rumored

Mixue Ice Cream & Tea / ChaPanda / Auntea Jenny — Freshly Made Beverage Chains

The Chinese freshly made beverage market exceeds RMB 400 billion, with leading brands operating tens of thousands of stores. Mixue Ice Cream & Tea has over 36,000 stores globally, with estimated 2025 revenue surpassing RMB 20 billion. ChaPanda listed in Hong Kong in 2024, setting a valuation benchmark for the industry. Key metrics to watch: same-store sales trends, franchisee churn rate, and overseas expansion speed.

IPO Application Filed

New Consumption Brands — Designer Toys / Pets / Outdoor

Pop Mart's success (2025 revenue exceeding RMB 13 billion, with overseas revenue accounting for over 40%) has ignited the entire Chinese designer toy/IP consumption sector. Leaders in various niches, such as the pet economy (Gambol Pet) and outdoor sports (Camel), are also preparing for listings on the Hong Kong Exchange.

Worth noting

Restaurant Chains — Hot Pot / Fast Food / Coffee

Chinese restaurant chain brands continue to seek listings on the Hong Kong Exchange, where valuations for consumer stocks are generally higher than in the A-share market (due to the scarcity of consumer assets in Hong Kong). Pay close attention to Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG)—if store expansion significantly outpaces same-store growth, it may signal excessive franchisee expansion.

⚠️ Risks in the Consumer Sector

– • Weak Domestic Demand:China's consumption recovery is uneven, with the catering and discretionary consumer sectors being the most affected. Declining same-store sales are the most dangerous signal.

– • Vulnerability of the Franchise Model:The tea beverage and catering industries rely heavily on franchising. The profitability of franchisees directly determines the pace of store expansion—once returns per store decline, a wave of closures could outpace new openings.

– • Food Safety Incidents:A single food safety incident can destroy brand trust built over many years (refer to Haidilao’s share price halving in 2021).

Three Major Cross-Sector Trends:
Must-Watch for Investors in H2

Trend 1: Continued Narrowing of the A+H Premium

H1 data shows that the first-day performance of A+H IPOs on the Hong Kong stock market was significantly weaker than that of pure H-shares. Cases like Lingyi iTech (-4.6%) and Anker Innovations (flat) indicate that HK investors will not blindly chase popular A-share companies. If CATL prices its offering with a low discount in H2, its short-term upside may be limited. Investors should use the valuation levels of HK-listed peers (rather than A-share prices) as a reference for pricing.

Trend 2: "Profitability" becomes the pricing anchor once again

The vast majority of new listings that saw significant gains on their first day in the first half were already profitable companies (e.g., Ketuo +204%, net profit of 93.7 million; Xinqi Micro +15%, net profit of 290 million). Loss-making stocks, even those with attractive concepts (AI, robotics), generally underperformed on their debut. If large-model startups list under Chapter 18C in the second half, the market will retest the limits of its tolerance for "losses in exchange for growth." Investors should pay special attention to adjusted losses (excluding one-off/non-cash items) and cash burn rates.

Trend 3: Widening divergence between international placement and public subscription

In the first half, many new listings exhibited a phenomenon of "oversubscribed international placements but lukewarm public subscriptions." Institutional investors and retail investors are increasingly diverging in their assessment of new listings. For retail investors, rather than focusing on "subscription multiples," it is better to conduct independent valuations using methods such as P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratios. Oversubscription only reflects demand, not whether the valuation is reasonable.

Practical Framework:
Three-Step Analysis Method for New Listings in the Second Half

Facing a dense pipeline of new listings in the second half, instead of chasing every single one, it is better to use a systematic framework for screening:

Step 1: Focus on earnings quality, not just profit or loss

Rather than asking "Is it making money?", ask three questions: ① Is revenue growth accelerating or decelerating? ② Is gross margin expanding or contracting? ③ Is operating cash flow positive or negative? A company with +50% revenue growth but a gross margin drop from 40% to 25% is riskier than a company with +15% revenue growth but stable gross margins.

Step 2: Peer P/S comparison – HK stocks vs. A-shares vs. US stocks

Input IPO prospectus data into the FinKit IPO Calculator to determine the P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratio, then compare it with peers across three markets: HK-listed peers (typically lowest), A-share peers (moderate), and US-listed peers (typically highest). If the new stock's P/S ratio exceeds the median of its peers across these three markets, it indicates the pricing is on the expensive side.

Step 3: Calculate the fair value range and establish buying discipline

Input different P/S multiples (conservative/neutral/optimistic) to calculate the corresponding fair value range. Consider buying only if the stock price falls below your "conservative price" after listing—avoid chasing highs on the first day of trading. Data from the first half of the year shows that new stocks with significant first-day gains typically correct by 20-50% within a month.

Don't want to rely on guesswork? Use the FinKit IPO Calculator to perform your own IPO valuation analysis.

IPO Valuation Calculator →

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Company names mentioned are for analytical examples only and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Investing in new stocks involves high risk; prices can rise or fall, and past performance is not indicative of future returns. Some companies' listing plans may be adjusted or canceled due to changes in market conditions. Investors should carefully read the prospectus and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. Data sources include the Hong Kong Exchange, company prospectuses, and public market information. Article written on: August 1, 2026.

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