Countdown to SpaceX lock-up expiration! Is the second half for space stocks just beginning?

August 18 Special Seminar on the "Space Economy",Chen Huiyi, Senior Vice President at Neuberger BermanLive sharing session,Click here to register now >>

The space sector's trilogy of "Frenzy – Crash – Recovery": What's the next move?

Over the past three months, the space sector has completed a full cycle of "Frenzy – Crash – Recovery."

May Frenzy: $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ IPO announced with a valuation as high as $1.75 trillion, becoming the largest IPO in history. The entire sector took off, $Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ 、 $Redwire (RDW.US)$ 、 $AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$ with related concept stocks doubling in price.

June Crash: As the capital-siphoning effect of SpaceX's IPO became apparent, space stocks plummeted, nearly halving in value. Many fellow investors who chased highs in May are now deeply trapped.

Recent Recovery: The sector has rebounded significantly, but is this the starting point for a new rally or a bull trap within a downtrend?

Three Core Logics Behind the Rebound—This Is Not a Mindless Surge

This rebound is not a sentiment-driven speculative frenzy; rather, earnings and orders are laying a new foundation for the sector after the bubble has been squeezed out.

Market Leader's Earnings Beat Expectations: $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ The first financial report since listing showed Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, a year-over-year surge of 92%. During the earnings call, Musk unveiled a visionary goal: "Launch data centers into space orbit by 2027 and aim for annual revenue of $1 trillion." The plan involves launching one million satellites to serve as distributed cloud computing super-servers in space, utilizing solar energy to process AI workloads.

Following the earnings release, SpaceX's stock rebounded sharply, breaking through the key 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($131.8) and establishing effective support. The upward resistance lies at the 38.2% key level ($150). If the stock breaks above $150 with increased volume in the short term, it will confirm a trend reversal.

Tangible orders secured, real money involved: $Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ Secured a $397 million contract with the U.S. Space Force, coupled with a successful launch, leading to an 8% single-day surge. As of this writing, RKLB's stock price has climbed above $80.25, with its market cap approaching $48 billion. These concrete government orders prove that this is not just hype; there is genuine industrial demand for commercial aerospace.

From a technical perspective, after pulling back from $151 to $58, RKLB has rebounded and currently stabilized at the 23.6% Fibonacci key level ($80.1). The short-term target is the 38.2% key level ($93.6). The most significant current factor is the development progress of the Neutron rocket—this contract explicitly specifies that Neutron will execute the launch missions, so keep a close eye on related news drivers for future market movements.

Sector divergence, capital repricing: Following SpaceX's listing, the market has begun to strictly distinguish between "companies with real revenue" and "those with only stories." Capital is flowing out of pure narrative stocks and concentrating on targets with revenue, contracts, and viability, forming a structural rebound—not all space stocks are rising, but quality companies are being repriced.

It is also worth noting that 319 million restricted shares of SpaceX will become tradable on August 20, posing short-term selling pressure risks. The sustainability of the rebound still needs to be observed.

Key questions: Will this rebound last? Which potential stocks are worth positioning in?

The space industry is entering a phase of rebirth and new development. The survivors that remain are those with proprietary technology, secured orders, and viable business models. However, opportunities coexist with risks. How should investors position themselves precisely?

We have invited a distinguished guest—Chen Huiyi, Senior Vice President at Neuberger Bermanto provide answers for everyone.On August 17, 2026, at 19:00, Ms. Chen will host a special seminar titled "Space Economy: Poised for Takeoff" at our Tsim Sha Tsui branch in Hong Kong, providing in-depth analysis from the following perspectives.

1. What are the key drivers propelling the space industry forward?

2. Why is it said that "investing in space is investing in the next AI"?

3. How should one allocate capital in space stocks, and which key individual stocks are worth betting on?

Attending fellow investors will have the opportunity to interact face-to-face with the guest speaker. Spaces are limited, so interested fellow investors are welcome.Click the image below to registerSeminar: Reserve your spot in advance.

83K Views