Week Ahead | Super Earnings Week for Hong Kong Stocks! Alibaba, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Pop Mart and others release results en masse; Fed meeting minutes due Thursday

Key Events for the New Week

Fed's July meeting minutes to be released on Thursday; hawk-dove divergence remains unresolved

At 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday (August 20), the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting. At the July meeting,Federal Open Market Committeethe committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range; Cleveland Fed President Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan advocated for an immediate 25 basis point rate hike.

However, these minutes are essentially "lagging indicators." Following the July meeting, US economic data generally weakened: non-farm payrolls unexpectedly declined in July, the year-on-year CPI growth rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, the PPI remained flat month-on-month, and retail sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.6%.These data points collectively reduced the necessity for an immediate rate hike in September, making "wait and see" the baseline market expectation.

If the minutes reveal that support for a rate hike is largely confined to the three dissenters, and if Friday's PMI continues to cool, expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in September will be further reinforced. This could put pressure on US Treasury yields and the US dollar, while potentially supporting tech growth stocks and gold. Conversely, if the minutes indicate that more officials are leaning toward supporting a rate hike, US Treasury yields and the US dollar may rebound despite recent weak data.

Progress reported on "shipping route plans" for the Strait of Hormuz, but navigation has not yet resumed; oil prices face two-way risks.

US-Iran tensions will remain the largest unscheduled risk next week. According to foreign media reports, Iran and Oman appear to be gradually reaching an agreement on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides having agreed on shipping routes through this critical waterway. A spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that finalizing a "shipping map" is part of a broader agreement to manage shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz.

Next week, focus should be placed on four key signals: whether Iran and Oman officially issue a joint statement; whether the US proposes reciprocal conditions for lifting the blockade; whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the US military adjust their maritime operations; and whether the number of crude oil tankers and shipping volumes show continuous improvement over several days.

If a joint statement is released and the US simultaneously signals the lifting of the blockade, the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil is expected to decline. If the two sides fail to compromise or if another vessel attack occurs in the strait, oil prices still face the risk of a second surge, which could also support defensive assets like gold. Changes in oil prices will, in turn, affect US inflation expectations and the Fed's interest rate path.

The Seoul AI Summit will be held from August 19 to 21.

The 2026 Seoul AI Summit & Expo will be held from August 19 to 21. The conference brings together $Google-A (GOOGL.US)$ (Google DeepMind / Google Cloud),$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$(Microsoft Research),$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, LG AI Research, and other global technology leaders.

Hong Kong stocks' super earnings week is here! Alibaba, Kuaishou, Baidu, Xiaomi, Pop Mart, and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable all take the stage.

As we enter the second half of August, the Hong Kong stock earnings season hits its peak. Market focus will expand from previous tech giants to cover consumption, optical communications, chips, telecommunications, finance, non-ferrous metals, and US-listed consumer department stores. $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ 、 $Kuaishou-W (01024.HK)$ 、 $Baidu (BIDU.US)$ 、 $Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $Pop Mart (09992.HK)$ 、$Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869.HK)$、$Zhongji Innolight (03308.HK)$、$GigaDevice (03986.HK)$and a batch of other star companies make their collective appearance.

Among them,$Alibaba (BABA.US)$It will announce its Q1 FY2027 earnings report on August 20 Beijing time. This is another complete quarterly report following Alibaba's restructuring into four major business segments. The market's core focus is on the resilience of domestic e-commerce GMV and revenue growth, as well as whether the Cloud Intelligence Group can accelerate growth driven by AI. How intelligent upgrades supported by large AI models and Tongyi Qianwen translate into advertising efficiency, merchant operations, and consumer experience will be a key window to test Alibaba's 'AI + Cloud + Consumption' strategy. If the revenue side and user ecosystem provide positive signals, it will further boost market confidence in the long-term value of tech leaders.

The Hang Seng Index semi-annual review results are out; CICC predicts that Zhipu AI and MINIMAX are likely to be included in the index.

Hang Seng Indexes Company announced that the results of the second-quarter 2026 review of the Hang Seng Index Series will be released after the market close on Friday, August 21, 2026. According to the announcement, changes to the constituents of the first and second groups of the Hang Seng Index Series will take effect on Monday, September 7, 2026, and Monday, September 14, 2026, respectively.

Based on the quantitative adjustment methodology of the Hang Seng Index and validated against historical rebalancing logic,CICC's calculations indicate that$Zijin Gold International (02259.HK)$、 $Zhipu AI (02513.HK)$ 、$MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)$and seven other stocks meet the inclusion criteria and rank among the top potential candidates.

Key Earnings Calendar for the New Week

Monday (August 17)

Keywords: China's July industrial value-added, retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed asset investment data; South Korean stock market holiday; Geely Auto and Shanghai Fudan University earnings

On the economic data front,9:30 AM: The National Bureau of Statistics releases the monthly report on residential property sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. 10:00 AM: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance, which will also include the year-on-year data for China's July total retail sales of consumer goods and industrial value-added above designated size.

On the earnings front,$Geely Auto (00175.HK)$ 、 $Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics (01385.HK)$ and other companies will release their financial reports.

Regarding market closures,The Korea Exchange in Seoul will be closed for one day due to the compensatory holiday for Liberation Day.

Tuesday (August 18)

Keywords: Xiaomi/Baidu/GigaDevice earnings

On the earnings front,$China Unicom (00762.HK)$、 $Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $GigaDevice (03986.HK)$ 、 $Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK)$ and other companies will release their financial reports on that day.

Wednesday (August 19)

Keywords: Seoul AI Summit, HKEX/Kuaishou/Hengrui Pharma earnings

On the economic calendar,The 2026 Seoul AI Summit & Expo will be held from August 19 to 21.

On the earnings front, $Hong Kong Exchange (00388.HK)$ 、 $Kuaishou-W (01024.HK)$ 、 $Hengrui Pharma (01276.HK)$ 、$SICC (02631.HK)$、$Kingsoft Cloud (03896.HK)$and other companies will release their financial reports.

Thursday (August 20)

Keywords: Fed meeting minutes, China LPR, Alibaba/Pop Mart/NetEase earnings

On the economic data front,At 9:00, China's one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) as of August 20 will be announced; at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15 will be released.

On the economic calendar,At 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

On the earnings front, $Pop Mart (09992.HK)$ 、 $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ 、$NetEase (09999.HK)$、$Walmart (WMT.US)$and other companies will report earnings.

Friday (August 21)

Keywords: Hang Seng Index review results; earnings from Zhongji Innolight, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Beike, and Zijin Mining

On the economic calendar,Hang Seng Indexes Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index Series review for the second quarter of 2026.

On the earnings front,$ZTE (00763.HK)$、 $Zijin Mining (02899.HK)$ 、 $Innolight (03308.HK)$ 、 $Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869.HK)$ 、 $KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$ and other companies will announce their earnings reports.

Wishing all fellow investors a successful week ahead!

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