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HBM shortages drive up chip prices: Is the memory supercycle continuing?
Lucas美股机会
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SanDisk surges on major guidance! Should you chase SanDisk and Micron now or wait for a pullback?

$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ Let's start with a brief look at the indices. Yesterday, the Nasdaq closed above 26,800,hitting a two-week high.From the perspective of the overall index structure, if the Nasdaq truly aims to break through its all-time highs in the future, relying solely on optical modules and data centers will definitely not be enough. Although these two sectors offer significant elasticity, their market capitalization is limited.The real driverfor further strengthening of the entire semiconductor indexis memory chips, which remain one of the most clear-cut directions., so when that happens,Before the memory chip sector took off,I consistentlyreminded everyoneto remain patient.Yesterday, the memory storage sector finally began to show signs of taking the lead,for the Nasdaq,I believe this is amoderately positivesignal.

1 $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ SanDisk. Among memory stocks yesterday,the strongest performer was undoubtedly SanDisk.During trading hours, the company releaseda very strong long-term financial guidance,let me break it down for you:
Based on the company's current guidance, gross margins are expected to remain around 80% for fiscal years 2028–2030, with free cash flow margins holding at 50%. The company has also clearly stated its plan to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders after funding normal business investments.
Following this guidance, the market reaction was immediate; SanDisk surged as much as 10% intraday,which also drove sustained strength in Micron and SK Hynix.Regarding SanDisk,I have actually been discussing this for quite some time.Last Friday, during the Non-Farm Payrolls release, I already suggested around the $1,200 level that investors could consider establishing small, high-beta positions as a pre-positioning strategy.If you are still holding your core position in SanDisk, I do not believe it is necessary to take full profits at this stage.The reason is simple: yesterday,after the long-term guidance was released,SanDisk saw a rare rally,Volume surged on rising pricesindicating that significant incremental capital began stepping in to support the price. I believe SanDisk still has potential for further strength in the short term. Since you already established positions at lower levels and have realized some profits, you can comfortably hold the remaining core position. The next target price to watch is $1,780. However,for those who completely missed the move,do not chase the highs directly right now.do not chase the highs directly right now.If you still want to participate in SanDisk later, you can be patientand wait for the stock price to pull backto the $1,450–$1,390 range,as this is the key zone worth watching for re-entry.

2 .$Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Micron: Yesterday, Micron surged intraday to near $980 before experiencing some pullback.Many followers have asked me whether this round marks the official start of the main uptrend for memory chips.Judging solely from the performance over the last three consecutive trading days,I believe such a possibility has begun to emerge.Especially after SanDisk broke out on heavy volume, if Micron and SK Hynix can continue to follow suit, the capital clustering effect across the entire memory sector will further strengthen. If you have alreadytaken profits on Micron in advance,Regarding the partial profits, I believethere is no need to overthink it at this point.Continue holding your positions while maintaining a stop-loss at breakeven. The second upside target can be set directly at $1,050. However,for investors who missed the rally in Micron Technology,I stilladvise against chasing the stock aggressively at current levels.From the 4-hour chart structure, the $920–$890 range representsa significant high-volume consolidation zone., ifIf the stock price retraces to this range later on, I believe it would present a favorable opportunity to re-establish positions.
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ Let's start with a brief look at the indices. Yesterday, the Nasdaq closed above 26,800,hitting a two-week high.From the perspective of the overall index structure, if the Nasdaq truly aims to break through its all-time highs in the future, relying solely on optical modules and data centers will definitely not be enough. Although these two sectors offer significant elasticity, their market capitalization is limited.The real driverfor further strengthening of the entire semiconductor indexis memory chips, which remain one of the most clear-cut directions., so when that happens,Before the memory chip sector took off,I consistentlyreminded everyoneto remain patient.Yesterday, the memory storage sector finally began to show signs of taking the lead,for the Nasdaq,I believe this is amoderately positivesignal.  1 $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ SanDisk. Among memory stocks yesterday,the strongest performer was undoubtedly SanDisk.During trading hours, the company releaseda very strong long-term financial guidance,let me break it down for you: Based on the company's current guidance, gross margins are expected to remain around 80% for fiscal years 2028–2030, with free cash flow margins holding at 50%. The company has also clearly stated its plan to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders after funding normal business investments. [Grin]Following this guidance, the market reaction was immediate; SanDisk surged as much as 10% intraday,which also drove sustained strength in Micron and SK Hynix.Regarding SanDisk,I have actually been discussing this for quite some time.Last Friday, during the non-farm payrolls release, I already...
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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