HK Stocks Warrants & CBBC Notes | Hang Seng Index falls for three consecutive days, but capital is not withdrawing across the board: The market is actually changing its leading sectors

The Hang Seng Index closed today at 25,396.51 points, down 0.17%. Looking solely at the index, it seems like another lackluster weak market. However, digging deeper reveals that today was not a case of "the entire market falling together," but rather a clear divergence into two distinct trends:The Hang Seng Index remained weak, while the Hang Seng Tech Index began to stabilize; some old-economy and financial stocks rose, while certain technology and auto stocks continued to face pressure.

Therefore, the most noteworthy aspect today is not "whether HK stocks are falling," but ratherwhere exactly capital is flowing from and to.

The Hang Seng Index has fallen for three consecutive days, testing the 120-day Moving Average (MA120) before finding support today; in contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.33%, reclaiming its 20-day Moving Average (MA20). Even more interesting is the open interest in warrants and CBBCs: Open interest in Hang Seng Index Call warrants has risen for three consecutive days, as has open interest in Bull Contracts; meanwhile, open interest in Put warrants has fallen for three consecutive days, and Bear Contract open interest has declined for two consecutive days. This indicates that even as the index continues to drop, more market participants are positioning for a rebound.

This phenomenon cannot be directly interpreted as "the broader market will definitely rise," because open interest data is a lagging indicator of positioning. However, it does tell us one thing:Market sentiment remains strongly inclined toward a rebound around the 25,000 level.

Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Weakness persisted, but the TECH Index did not decline in sync.

The Hang Seng Index hit a low of 25,288.07 points today, closing below the Bollinger Bands middle band at approximately 25,469 points. In the short term, 25,288 has become the first line of defense. Looking further down, the key level to watch is not just an arbitrary round-number resistance, but rather the heavy concentration zone of Bull contracts. 25,000–25,199 point range。

The Tech Index behaved differently, closing at 4,792.39 points, reclaiming the MA20 and hovering near the Bollinger Bands middle band. In the short term, the battle will likely be decided within the 4,762 to 4,840 range. In other words, today's market was not a case of "tech stocks dying across the board," but rathera divergence in relative strength between the HSI and the Tech Index.。

If the Nasdaq can break through the 4,840 level in the near future, while the Hang Seng Index continues to consolidate between 25,300 and 25,500, this divergence is worth monitoring closely.

HSBC $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ : The broader market fell, yet it has reclaimed its position above both moving averages

One of the stocks most clearly demonstrating a "change in market leadership" today is HSBC (00005)。

The share price rose 1.48% to HK$163, reclaiming the MA10 and MA20; the calculated upside risk-reward ratio in our "Warrants and CBBC Product Overview" is approximately 60.2, still leaning towards the bullish side. More importantly, the product selection is relatively comprehensive, with Calls, Puts, Bull Contracts, and Bear Contracts offering various strike distances and leverage levels for comparison.

In other words, the question for HSBC is no longer simply "will it rise," but rather a more practical one:

If it holds firmly at HK$163, is the next potential upside worth leveraging? If it falls back below the HK$161 level, how should we manage the position?

This is where warrant and CBBC trading truly becomes interesting.

China Life Insurance $CHINA LIFE (02628.HK)$ : Rose today, but the data has not yet fully turned stronger

Another stock I think is worth watching is China Life (02628)。

It rose 2% today, but the trend has not yet fully reversed its previous weakness. Our risk-reward ratio for downside remains higher than for upside, and the derivatives positioning is quite interesting: outstanding call warrants have risen for five consecutive sessions, and outstanding bull contracts have also risen for two consecutive sessions, while outstanding bear contracts have likewise risen for four consecutive sessions.

Such stocks are most prone to creating illusions: a rise today leads people to believe the trend has already turned.

Not necessarily.

A more appropriate approach now is to wait for it to prove itself. Specifically, first see if it can regain stability above the resistance zone before deciding whether to upgrade the status from a "rebound" to a "trend reversal."

InnoLight Technology $ZJ INNOLIGHT (03308.HK)$ AI hardware on the other side still has its own market momentum

Today Zhongji Innolight (03308) It rose about 2%, marking its second consecutive day of gains, and closed above all major moving averages. Market data shows that the underlying stock remains relatively strong, yet outstanding call warrants fell by 13.6% in a single day.

This stands in sharp contrast to many weak tech stocks.

Therefore, concluding that "tech stocks are weak" simply because stocks like Tencent, Xiaomi, and Li Auto fell today is overly simplistic. The market currently looks more like:Capital is not exiting the tech sector; rather, it is rotating within tech stocks.

The key point I want to highlight today is this:

Stop using the rise and fall of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) as a proxy for the entire Hong Kong stock market.

The market has clearly entered a phase of divergence. Some stocks are holding support levels, some are breaking out, while others have lost all moving average supports. Even if you correctly judge the direction, whether the warrant terms are suitable is another issue.

So today's《Warrant and CBBC Product Overview 2026-08-13 》, I believe, is more useful than simply looking at the gainers and losers list. It has already organized the support and resistance levels, upside/downside risk-reward ratios for the HSI, the Hang Seng TECH Index, and key focus stocks, along with referenceable Call warrants, Put warrants, Bull contracts, and Bear contracts.

First determine the direction, then compare the products.

This approach is always far more practical than 'seeing a stock surge and randomly buying a Call warrant'.

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