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AI computing demand is booming! Is Neocloud positioned to ride the wave?
格隆汇GuruClub
joined discussion · Aug 13 12:20

Nebius and CoreWeave both surged. Which A-share and Hong Kong-listed stocks are fully benchmarking against them?

Source: Sina Shenzhen
Recently, CoreWeave and Nebius have continued to strengthen. Driven by their Q2 earnings reports on August 12, they soared 19% and 34% respectively, with their combined market capitalization exceeding $120 billion. This surge was not driven by speculative sentiment, but by a "Super Token Factory" model that has been repeatedly validated by financial reports—characterized by large scale, full-stack capabilities, heavy assets, long-term contracts, and high cash flow visibility. This model is becoming the new benchmark for global computing power pricing. Applying this same logic domestically, there are very few targets in the A-share and Hong Kong markets that truly possess comparable quality.
1. Dual Stars Surge: The Hunger for Computing Power on a Hundred-Billion-Dollar Order Book
On August 12, CoreWeave (CRWV.US) closed up 19.28% at $107.73, with its market cap rising to approximately $58.7 billion. Nebius (NBIS.US) closed up 34.14% at $259.20, with its market cap rising to approximately $70.4 billion. The Q2 earnings reports released by both companies on the same day provided the strongest cross-validation of the shortage in AI computing power. CoreWeave's Q2 revenue was $2.575 billion, a year-on-year increase of 112%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin as high as 59%; its backlog stands at $104 billion, with a single new agreement with Meta alone worth $21 billion, extending the contract term to 2032. Nebius's revenue was $582.3 million, soaring 454% year-on-year, with AI cloud revenue growing by 514%; it signed four contracts worth over $1 billion each in one go this quarter, bringing cumulative customer commitments to over $40 billion. The CEO stated bluntly, "The planned capacity for 2027 can already be fully sold out."
II. Who Qualifies to Become a "Super Token Factory"?
The explosive growth of these two companies shares the same underlying DNA: massive scale, full-stack capabilities, and asset-heavy operations. CoreWeave has an effective power supply capacity of 1.5 gigawatts (GW) and $104 billion in backlog orders; NEBIUS has raised its year-end contracted capacity target to 5 GW, with cumulative commitments exceeding $40 billion. Both rely on GW-scale power infrastructure, integrating the entire value chain from GPU procurement to computing power scheduling, backed by top-tier AI clients such as Meta, Anthropic, and Cohere. The convergence of three types of "scale"—large-scale IDCs, large-scale computing power (measured in petaflops), and large-scale client bases—is the prerequisite for becoming a "Super Token Factory." Computing power is the raw material, tokens are the product, and cash flow is the revenue collection. If any link is missing, the "factory" remains merely a "construction site."
III. The Chinese Mirror of the Super Token Factory: Who Is Replicating the Same Formula?
Shifting focus from a global perspective back to the domestic market, there are few targets that simultaneously possess deterministic scale across all three dimensions. Runze Technology (300442.SZ) and Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Intelligent Computing (01396.HK) stand out as the most certain players among those already achieving scale. Most other enterprises remain confined to specific segments of the industry chain—either focusing solely on chip servers, offering only IDC space leasing, or having a customer structure heavily concentrated on a single entity. However, the true watershed lies in whether these three dimensions can be realized simultaneously. $GBA AI COMP (01396.HK)$
In the A-share market, Runze Technology (300442.SZ) reported 2025 revenue of RMB 5.674 billion, of which AIDC revenue amounted to RMB 2.510 billion, a year-on-year increase of 72.97%, accounting for 44.24% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 48.50%. In Q1 2026, revenue reached RMB 1.840 billion (+53.55%), and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 582 million (+35.35%), confirming an inflection point in growth. In terms of scale, the company plans 61 intelligent computing centers and 320,000 server racks, with approximately 750 MW currently in operation. It has delivered around 100,000 high-density liquid-cooled racks, achieving a PUE as low as 1.08, with liquid-cooled rack deliveries up 230% year-on-year. Leveraging a full-lifecycle model of "self-investment, self-construction, self-ownership, and self-operation," Runze has maintained high capital efficiency during its asset-heavy expansion. Its capability in delivering and operating high-power liquid-cooled racks has been rigorously validated by leading cloud providers. The customer matrix has expanded from a single internet giant to a diversified ecosystem. In addition to meeting over 50% of ByteDance's new computing power demands, it has deeply bound itself with top cloud vendors like Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud, while gradually onboarding several leading large language model companies. From the "Token Factory" framework perspective, Runze has established a leading position in the "scaled IDC" dimension, with computing scale and customer depth continuing to materialize. Its current market capitalization is approximately RMB 111 billion.
In the Hong Kong stock market, Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Intelligent Computing represents a nascent "Super Token Factory" highly isomorphic to the CoreWeave and NEBIUS models. A side-by-side comparison across three dimensions reveals: In computing scale, it operates IDCs exceeding 108 MW, with FP16 dense computing power nearing 50,000 petaflops, and over 10,000 high-power racks, directly benchmarking the production capacity foundation of CoreWeave's ten-thousand-card clusters. In customer structure, it serves over 200 enterprise-level clients and more than 3,000 OPC and individual clients, covering telecom operators, leading cloud vendors, large model enterprises, and financial institutions—a customer matrix akin to NEBIUS's contracts with star AI firms like Cohere and Reflection. In delivery and financials, the rack utilization rate remains stable above 95%, cumulative backlog orders have exceeded RMB 30 billion, and net profit for the first half of 2026 is projected to surpass RMB 240 million—already 3.3 times the full-year total of 2025. This is ironclad evidence of a functioning "factory" rather than a mere "construction site."
It is worth reflecting on the market capitalization coordinates of Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Intelligent Computing and expectations for its inclusion in the Stock Connect. The company's current total market cap is only about HKD 17.4 billion, representing a roughly seven-fold gap compared to Runze's approximate RMB 111 billion. More critically, there is a clear deduction path for its inclusion in the Stock Connect: the company has been included in the MSCI China Small Cap Index and formally reclassified into the Internet Services and Infrastructure sector by Hang Seng Indexes Company. The current market cap threshold for small-cap stocks entering the Hong Kong Stock Connect is approximately HKD 10.3 billion; the company's HKD 17.4 billion valuation has significantly crossed this red line. The market expects it to be formally included during the semi-annual review next March. At that time, Southbound funds, with cumulative net inflows exceeding HKD 5 trillion, will open a direct allocation channel for computing power assets. With trillions in Southbound capital pricing computing power, the elasticity potential of Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Intelligent Computing, with its HKD 17.4 billion体量, becomes evident when facing hundred-billion-level capital flows.
IV. Accelerating Prosperity: Certainty Belongs to the Leaders
On the industrial fundamental front, domestic AI computing demand grew by 417% year-on-year in Q1 2026, while supply growth was only 128%. Capital expenditure estimates for the nine major global cloud vendors amount to approximately $830 billion. NEBIUS revealed that short-term computing contract prices have risen to $40–50 million per megawatt per year, far exceeding the $20–25 million for long-term contracts—customers are willing to pay double premiums for "immediately deliverable computing power." As Super Token factories across the ocean prove the sector's value through surging valuations and hundred-billion-dollar order books, attention naturally turns to the domestic market. The answer lies not in concepts, but in delivery records and financial figures. Industry prosperity is still accelerating, but certainty belongs only to the leaders already standing on the track.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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