HK Stock Market Barometer | Revisiting the September 24 Rally! Is the National Day Trading Window Ab
HK Stock Warrants & CBBC Notes | The index only fell by about 1%, but individual stocks are clearly diverging. Where is the capital actually flowing?
If you only look at how much the Hang Seng Index dropped today, you might think the market is just moderately weak.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,440.17 points, down 0.83%; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 4,776.44 points, down 0.99%. Both indices fell by approximately 1%, with no signs of panic selling on the surface.
But what truly deserves attention is thatthe stocks underlying the indices are starting to move in two completely different directions.
Some stocks are still falling, while others have already started to strengthen ahead of the pack.
The Hang Seng Index hit a low of 25,323.33 points today today, before closing back at 25,440.
And the middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart is at 25,449.45 points。
, meaning today's closing price was practically hugging the middle band.
At this level, I wouldn't simply say "bullish" or "bearish," because what really matters right now is:
whether 25,323 can hold, and whether the index can regain footing between 25,449 and 25,500.
If 25,323 breaks again, we'll naturally look to the next support level for the short term; but if it stabilizes around 25,450, today's pullback may not necessarily mean the uptrend is over.
The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 4,776.44 points,with the Bollinger Bands middle line around 4,792.24 points,meaning it has fallen back below the middle line. The first level to reclaim is not 5,000 points, but rather the immediate 4,790 to 4,800 point range.。
Therefore, the real message from today's index movement is not just a "1% drop."
But rather:
Both major indices have fallen to levels that require a reassessment of their direction.
However, the story for individual stocks is completely different.
Tencent closed today at traded at HK$461.60, down 1.95%,with its 5-day decline reaching 6.22%, and its 20-day decline also standing at 2.62%。
If looking solely at the share price, the short-term trend is naturally weak.
However, net inflows from main force capital today remained around 311 million yuan, marking six consecutive days of net inflows from main force capital.
This is where it gets interesting.
A drop in stock price does not mean all capital is withdrawing.
Therefore, rather than trying to guess the bottom for Tencent right now, it's better to first watch whether the level near 456 yuan can hold.Today's low was 456.2, making this level very critical.
If it holds, we can observe for a rebound.
If it breaks down, the narrative will be completely different.
Zijin Mining closed 35.92 yuan, up 1.53%。
up about [amount] over 5 days, 2.05%, up over 10 days 9.85%and even more over 20 days. 20.88%。
Mainland capital also recorded a net inflow of approximately HKD 76.83 million,。
meaning Tencent is still seeking support, while Zijin Mining has started pushing higher again.
Looking at both together on the same day, you'll realize that today is not simply a 'market decline.'
It is a reallocation of capital.
Wuxi Apptec closed at 198.90 yuanon the surface, it only fell by 0.1%.
But if you zoom out slightly:
– 5-day:+8.39%
– 10-day:+25.41%
– 20-day:+20.47%
– 60-day:+55.51%
– Year-to-date:+105.27%
The fact that this stock fell 0.1% today is actually not the main point.
The real question is:
After such a significant rally, is it still worth chasing?
And this is precisely why focusing solely on daily price movements often leads to misreading the market.
AIA closed today at HK$72.65,with a decline of actually only 0.27%.
But over the past 5 days, it has fallen 6.56%, and down over the past 10 days 7.04%, it would have dropped even more over the past 60 days 15.68%。
Therefore, the question truly worth asking today is not:
"AIA only dropped 0.27% today, does this mean the decline has stopped?"
Rather, it's this:
Has the previous round of selling pressure been fully exhausted?
This also explains why our calculations today show Zijin Mining having a higher upside risk-reward ratio, while AIA leans towards a higher downside risk-reward ratio.
It is not because we know for certain that the market will rise or fall tomorrow.
Rather, like other retail investors, we are essentially forecasting future trends. The difference is that while some rely on chart patterns, others on RSI, and others on Bollinger Bands, we attempt to integrate trend analysis, support and resistance levels, capital flows, and product terms to make our predictions, hoping to base our judgments on more solid grounds.
Here is my interpretation of today's market:
Index: Direction undecided.
The Hang Seng Index range of 25,323 to 25,450 represents a very clear short-term zone for offense and defense.
Strong stocks: Continue to show strength.
Stocks such as Zijin Mining and Wuxi Apptec continue to significantly outperform the index.
Weak stocks: A smaller decline today does not necessarily signal a trend reversal.
Stocks like Tencent, AIA, and Xiaomi still need to prove that their support levels can hold.
Therefore, if you only look at the Hang Seng Index's 0.83% drop today, you would actually miss a lot of important details.
In the current market, what truly matters is not guessing how many points the Hang Seng Index will rise or fall tomorrow, but ratheridentifying which stocks have started to diverge from the index.
I have also compiled today's key support/resistance levels for major stocks, their upside/downside risk-reward ratios, and reference terms for calls, puts, callable bull contracts, and callable bear contracts in today's《Warrant and CBBC Product Overview》。
The purpose is not for you to blindly follow recommendations, but to save you the trouble of checking each product individually when you already have a directional view, allowing you to directly compare:
Whether your directional view is correct is the first hurdle; whether you've chosen the right product is the second.
And in today's market, both hurdles are quite important.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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